Routine hand, screwed up the turn? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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cmwck

05-20-2005, 03:58 AM

SB is a big time calling station. He's playing any two cards now that it's semi-short-handed.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $2.
2 folds, MP2 (poster) checks, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls.

Standard raise yes? Playing 3-way against a random poster and the calling station would be a dream.

Flop: (9 SB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
SB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, Button folds, SB calls, MP2 raises, Hero calls, SB calls.

This really threw me for a loop. No idea if I'm ahead or behind now. Call and re-evaluate on the turn.

Turn: (7.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls....

I think this is where my mistake is. If I could get SB to fold a J, I'll win the whole pot if my gutshot comes. If he folds a Q I'll win if I make two pair. If he folds some crappy pair he called with on the flop, I'm good if the river would have made him two pair. Even if we are behind MP2, a raise significantly improves my equity.

Sorry if this is a boring hand, but I always want to make sure I'm understanding general concepts.

shant

05-20-2005, 04:00 AM

You could have put the same pressure on him with a flop 3-bet.

cmwck

05-20-2005, 04:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You could have put the same pressure on him with a flop 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to elaborate? If I had to do the flop over again, I probably would have thought "3-betting the flop has little chance of getting SB to fold, and will further tie him to the pot. If I wait until the turn to raise MP2, SB will be much more likely to fold or to make a mistake. It also reduces the chances of MP2 3-betting me, and I'll get an extra BB (as opposed to an extra SB) if I'm ahead."

Shillx

05-20-2005, 04:50 AM

This is a mock WA/WB type hand since the flop offers very little in terms of draws (other then a gutterball for 3 specific hands). The check/raise sucks with this hand since the only hand that you can really expect to beat is KT. He figures to have either a set, KQ-KT or K9 in this spot so it really isn't looking good. I wouldn't really mind keeping the SB around to pad the pot since you figure to be losing at this point.

One the turn comes, KT just outdrew you and you picked up a gutshot. There is very little reason to raise here since the prospect of having the best hand looks bleak and now you have to call a 3-bet should it come. You also have to consider that if the SB was on the only possible draw on the flop, the T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif just helped his hand in some way or another. If he had QJ he now has as straight and if he had JT or QT he just paired up so there is little need to "clear up" outs since the odds that he will fold are none and none.

Brad

cmwck

05-20-2005, 05:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a mock WA/WB type hand since the flop offers very little in terms of draws (other then a gutterball for 3 specific hands). The check/raise sucks with this hand since the only hand that you can really expect to beat is KT. He figures to have either a set, KQ-KT or K9 in this spot so it really isn't looking good. I wouldn't really mind keeping the SB around to pad the pot since you figure to be losing at this point.

One the turn comes, KT just outdrew you and you picked up an OESD. There is very little reason to raise here since the prospect of having the best hand looks bleak and now you have to call a 3-bet should it come. You also have to consider that if the SB was on the only possible draw on the flop, the T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif just helped his hand in some way or another. If he had QJ he now has as straight and if he had JT or QT he just paired up so there is little need to "clear up" outs since the odds that he will fold are none and none.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Hm, I guess I was thinking SB could have J2, J9, Q2, or Q9. Those would be just as likely as QJ or JT. In fact, he could have had any pair as well, and would be getting correct odds to draw with any of these hands (I saw him bring 23o high cards to a showdown with me once).

What happened to the "Maximize your chances of winning big pots even if you might be behind" idea? Or are we behind so often in this spot that it doesn't matter if we're maximizing our chances?

Shillx

05-20-2005, 05:23 AM

It is all fine and dandy to protect your hand, but it really only works out when you figure to have the best of it a decent % of the time. I have no idea what MP2 could be check/raising the flop with, but I would assume that it isn't a very wide range of hands. At best, he figures to have a worse king against you so that equates to just 3 outs. At worst...you are about a 30:1 underdog so I think that this qualifies as WA/WB. I like getting to a showdown with as much overlay as possible, and that involves just flat calling on every street. I didn't see the read that the SB was a calling station, and that helps us even more since he will be willing to put in bets drawing super thin or stone dead. There is no need to protect your hand against a guy who is drawing dead...

Brad

cmwck

05-20-2005, 05:40 AM

Ack, you're right. I forgot to consider that SB could likely be drawing dead against MP. SB could improve, but I'd still be behind to MP.

This clears things up. Guess I played the hand correctly, I just didn't know why /images/graemlins/smile.gif