AJ hand outthinking myself?

[pointcount]

This is an easy turn raise eh?

My thoughts were along the line of "if villan is bluffing at me then I want to keep him bluffing whereas my raise will make him fold whereas if he's betting the K I am behind so just call"....I think I messed this one up... :S

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (10 SB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG folds, MP folds.

Turn: (6 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10 BB

[Transference]

I think this ones actually pretty close.

The donk bet of course screams jack. The lead also really reeks of a feel out bet. My concern here is that im not sure the average player at 1/2 is ever capable of laying down any full house.

I'm tempted to say that the odd ace will take a stab here more often than someone will lay down a jack, but that's not neccessairly a problem. If hes bluffing your only picking up one more bb by calling down (I think a bluff will nearly always fire the river again if you just call), whereas if he folds a jack you pick up a 3.5BB share of the pot.

On the other hand (again) your are of course not picking this up often, if its 1 in 3 your making a little over 1 bb and I suspect its nowhere near that.

Also consider that some donk might 3 bet a jack here occasionally, if your folding everytime this happens your sacrificing quite a bit, that is you give up your share of the pot and spend 2 bb to do so.

While this would be pretty rare I think its significant because you have the option of a showdown for the same price as a raise. Thus in the unlikely event that he does have a king one is no better than the other.

I think I rambled but to me the key is on the turn your raising to pick up only half the pot (he will never fold a better hand and very rarely call with a worse hand) and this share isnt terribly large. I'm thinking that if villian can fold a jack here 1 in 5 or so its worth it.

I won't attempt the math so anyone can feel free to correct me.

[Kasumeat]

I would never raise this turn. If you are going to raise in a spot like this, do it on the river. You get the most money out of bluff that will fold to a raise by waiting until the river, and it costs you just as much to call down against a King.

I would play this hand the same way. Ace-high will probably fold if we raise anywhere here, so I just don't see the value of raising.

Oh, and for the record, I think you will get a Jack to fold here less than 1 in 100 times. Seriously.

[@bsolute_luck]

looks goot to me as well as your thinking. win the max, lose the min.

[Fiddler]

Why? Either you split, he has a K or he will fold a bluff.

[Your Mom]

[ QUOTE ]
Why? Either you split, he has a K or he will fold a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

He'd probably call with an ace though.

[wowacedude]

[ QUOTE ]
Why? Either you split, he has a K or he will fold a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]