Two Hands to Analyze

[Nutz]

I had another good night at Hollywood Park last night. But I want some feedback on two hands that I lost. As always comments are appreciated.

Background: 40-80 game, semi-loose, fairly passive.

Hand #1: I am 3 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 5 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif on the button. Loose aggressive player opens MP for a raise. Two tight passive LP players call behind. SB mucks, and I call.

Flop: A /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 4 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 4 /forums/images/icons/club.gif

I bet out. Initial raise calls, first LP calls, second LP raises. I three bet. I think this is a good raise given 1) the number of players in the hand 2) my draw, and 3) my table image which gets respect (people will put me on a 4).
Anyhow, the inital raiser and first LP mucked, second LP called.

Turn: 10 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif

I bet. LP called.

River: A /forums/images/icons/spade.gif

I make desperation bet to take the pot. LP calls. I throw my cards into the muck. LP turns over AK. Why did he not raise this hand on the river???


Hand #2:

I am on the button with A /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif Q /forums/images/icons/club.gif. Every player (full table) limps to me!!!! I decide just to call. (Turns out to be a costly mistake).

Flop: A /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 2 /forums/images/icons/club.gif 2 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

Very solid player in SB opens. Three calls to me. I raise. SB three bets, the other players muck, I call. I am pretty sure that SB has a deuce, but I can't muck in case I'm wrong.

Turn: 6 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

SB bets. I call.

River: 8 /forums/images/icons/club.gif

Again, SB bets and I call. SB turns over 2 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 4 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif. He tells me he would have mucked preflop if I raised, and I believe him. Did I misplay this hand by not raising before the flop? Did I play the other streets correctly?

Thanks again for any comments.

[astroglide]

i think not raising aq preflop on the button after the table limps to you is a mistake, but you're being utterly results-oriented in debating whether or not it was good or bad because 24o would have folded.

you raise because you have the best hand, wrecking the implied odds of suited garbage (e.g. 35s) that limped in under cover.

[Nutz]

Thanks. I did not mean to be results oriented. But I can drive out a SB that might catch I hand with a raise. I agree that the raise ruins the implied odds of some hands. The raise into the table, however, will increase the pot odds of any marginal draws that might flop, when I flop a pair. Moreover, agaist the entire table I think I need to hit my hand BIG (i.e. 2 pair) to take down the pot. Notwithstanding this, I think you might be right that is correct to raise pre-flop, because I have the best hand.

[astroglide]

suited trash relies on implied odds preflop. let's say they have a hand that's 12:1 to win 10-handed. they need to pick up a couple small bets if they hit to make their preflop call correct. if the big blind raises, they need to pick up a couple BIG bets to make their preflop call correct. if everybody called, the small blind reraised, and everybody called that they need to pick up THREE BIG BETS...you get the point.

aq wins plenty with 2 pair (aq or board pairing) and broadway. you have no reason to believe you have anything less than the best at this point, so make them give money to you preflop.

[astroglide]

fix: THREE BIG BETS should be THREE SMALL BETS. still a big deal.

[astroglide]

cancel the fix lol. i don't know what i was thinking. anyway, you get the point :O)

[Nutz]

Again, I never disagreed that raising here will ruin the implied odds for suited trash. I am just wondering if raising the entire table is +EV for AQo. You seem to think so, and I am now leaning that way. But I am not sure.

[astroglide]

i'm just deferring to the thinking of better thinkers /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

http://www.posev.com/poker/holdem/strategy/preflop-abdul.html

http://izmet.desetka.si/aq.html

[Ed Miller]

It should be noted that this point is one for which Abdul/Izmet disagree significantly with S&M.

[mike l.]

hand 1: i dont like the 3 bet on the flop because there may very well be a bigger diamond draw out there meaning you are drawing to a gut shot. also, in general, against a preflop raiser a checkraise on the flop means a draw and a checkraise on the turn means a very strong made hand. so i think if you wanted to make a play for the pot you shouldve waited and checkraised the turn. btw most players wont fold AK here, image or not, checkraise or not. your chances of winning the pot by making a move make it a better play to just fold 53s preflop here although i suppose implied odds called for a call here, folding cant be far from wrong.

ah one more thought. if you are going to bluff when you miss on the river why not put that bet in on the turn and see where youre really at? you can checkraise the turn, after all that flop action and maybe he will laydown an A here after youve checkraised both streets. if he calls your raise there you can just give up on the river as it's pretty clear he has an A and will call you down. plus if you hit on the river you can get an extra bet out of him than if you had check-called the turn and then bet the river. plus there is a chance he will check behind on the turn when you check and give you a nice free card.

hand 2: yes you need to raise here preflop and i think then your play is to check the flop and raise the turn when someone bets into you.