Poker Prophecy Software

[greenroom1]

Anyone using the Poker Prophecy software. Is it bogus or useful? It tracks the win rates for SNGs on empire and PP. It looks like it might be helpful in knowing something about your opponent. I am curious if anyone else is using it.

[mcpherzen]

(a) For the most part, PokerProphecy bites. It doesn't perform anywhere near as wonderfully as the claims made about it on their webpage. It can provide some limited useful data, however. Caveat emptor.

(2) Use the search function above and you'll find more posts about PokerProphecy than you will ever care to read.

[citanul]

I'm hoping you'll figure out what to do when you get here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/search.php?Cat=).

[rickr]

I was going to make a post to update people on this. I changed my username the other day. Since then I have played 46 SNG's. It has picked up 13. The comment was made at one time that you could use it to determine someone who has played a large number of sng's. I guess that's true, but when you see someone who has played 1000, does it mean a 1000 or 4000? It was 5% high on my itm, which could be the differance between a winning and losing player.

I have my ideas as to why it's off this much, but that's not the subject.
Later,
Rick

[greenroom1]

I tried the search feature first but put a space between poker and porphecy and got no posts. I tried it the other way and got a lot of reading to do. Thanks /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Skipbidder]

[ QUOTE ]
I was going to make a post to update people on this. I changed my username the other day. Since then I have played 46 SNG's. It has picked up 13. The comment was made at one time that you could use it to determine someone who has played a large number of sng's. I guess that's true, but when you see someone who has played 1000, does it mean a 1000 or 4000? It was 5% high on my itm, which could be the differance between a winning and losing player.

I have my ideas as to why it's off this much, but that's not the subject.
Later,
Rick

[/ QUOTE ]

You must be lying. I've gotten thousands of helpful and informative messages while playing on Party skins that tell me that the win-loss records are complete. Also, very helpful representatives from EvilCo have come on this website to assure us that if you ever notice that they aren't tracking that many of your games or not tracking them accurately that A) you are lying, B) it was only a one time problem, and C) they have already fixed it.

[greenroom1]

it seems to me that it would be useful in cetain situations. Weak players for the most part play loose either passive or aggressive. Wouldn't it be helpful to know how well someone has been playing prior to making a call against a large bet. As long as the info is accurate I think it would be helpful. They let you sample 5 people's names. I found it helpful on making a call against a loose aggressive player. He had a win rate of 21%. I had K10 in BB. Blinds were 15/30. He was in the CO and min raised. We were 7 handed. I called. Flop was K 7 3 rainbow. I checked he went all in. I checked his win rate. Called based on the fact that he had a 21% Win rate. He showed K8, and I took down the pot. It was helpful in this one situation. I have an N of 1 though. Before I buy the software I wanted to know if anyone else is using this software to make tough calls like this. The large overbet was also a signal that this guy was a fish, but if he would have had a win rate of >40% I probably wouldn't have called.

[AA suited]

it is currently useless for table selection. PP relies on PArty software for updates. and you know how bad Party software is. it might list 1 player at the table, but when you double click to see the table, there might be 8 players already sitting there.

and PP is useless for multitabling selection. once you sit at a table, it will only give you stats on that table.

so if you 4 table, and *IF* party software updates fast enough that you PP is able to retrieve names from the tables, it'll only help with table selection for 1 table.

you'll have to manually enter names for the other 3 tables. that is a pain, and is inconvienent. not to mention that you'll only have time to enter like 2 names before the table fills up.

[grimel]

You'll have better luck datamining with PT than poker non-prophecy. Of course feel free to look me up (grimel) and follow it's guidelines.

[beeyjay]

everybody here hates it. I hate it. Its inaccurate as anything and seems to be getting worse lately. They claim you can get it to show up on the table like at their website but that only works at party poker (where i dont play) and only works if you have 1 table going which I never do.

that said i paid 20 bucks for it and use it as entertainment to see the guy calling me a moron douchbag loser kusty's 10% itm. i have used it early and some dude goes all in and i have say qq or ak or something. if hes got a 10% winrate I probably have him beat. to be cliche i've probably paid for it and then some in situations like that.

[greenroom1]

[ QUOTE ]
i have used it early and some dude goes all in and i have say qq or ak or something. if he's got a 10% winrate I probably have him beat. to be cliche i've probably paid for it and then some in situations like that.

[/ QUOTE ]


I think this is the reason to buy the software. It can be really tough to call an all in preflop reraise with AK and QQs. If I knew the player had a win rate of <20%, I think there is probably a good chance I will be calling and he will have AQs-A8o, or JJ-88s. I see it all the time.

[Degen]

prophecy rocks my socks

i will continue to be the resident prophecy shill because that program is just so badass.

i don't like the new overlay thing at all...doesn't take sample sizes into account and its quite ugly...but the utility of this thing is awesome when making 'reads' early.


Andre

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
that said i paid 20 bucks for it and use it as entertainment to see the guy calling me a moron douchbag loser kusty's 10% itm. i have used it early and some dude goes all in and i have say qq or ak or something. if hes got a 10% winrate I probably have him beat. to be cliche i've probably paid for it and then some in situations like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty much the reason I eventually payed for it even though i hate it. It really nice in situations like this or post flop when some guy puts you all-in post flop when you are holding TT on a 9-high flop. If you look at the guys stats and hes a big winner, you are likely beat. If hes a big fish then hes probably got J9 or some garbage you have smashed.

[greenroom1]

I bought the software and I think it will be useful. I put the names of a few of my friends who claim to be big winners at the 200+15. They have win rates 22 and 26%. Probably not profitable for them. Anyway it is only 40 bucks for the software and I think it will pay for itself with a couple of good calls against an aggressive fish.

[grimel]

PP on me:
Player grimel
Games played 20
Wins 6 (30%)
Losses 14 (70%)

PT:
tourneys: 22
Wins: 9 (40.9%)
losses: 13 (59.1%)

Believe PP's stats at your own peril.

[Blarg]

If any of these popular poker tools are useful only a tiny percentage of the time, they'll pay for themselves many, many times over.

That said, their sampling seems to consistently overstate people's win rates. Mine has usually shown me ITM at between around 45 and 50%, and I've never had anything like those win rates. And this is after getting over 300 of my games. My ITM is about 37-38%.

ITM is a pretty weak indicator of profitability, too. Now if they were zeroing in on your ROI, it would potentially say vastly more about you as a player.

[pbrmeasap]

Pokerprophecy results are meaningless with a small sample. With that being said, 100 is still a small sample but 100 games shows that the dude plays a bit. With small samples there misses become much more evident.

[J-Lo]

my tru stats according to spreadsheet

1759 tourneys played @ 36.1%

Poker prophecies stats on me

679 tourneys played @ 41%

[grimel]

but PP CLAIMS to get all the games and CLAIMS it takes 20 events to get meaningful results.

Do note, I've only had PT for about a month. How long has PP been trying to catch games? I have to ask for HH and import them into PT. So, in 1 month I've played more than PP shows this year.

[duke44]

[ QUOTE ]
PP relies on PArty software for updates. and you know how bad Party software is. it might list 1 player at the table, but when you double click to see the table, there might be 8 players already sitting there.

[/ QUOTE ]

We actually have developed a bit of a work around for this at the start of May, Party Poker changed up a few things(mainly updating very slowly) on us so we had to change a few paremeters and add on some systems. If you go to www.pokerprophecy.com (http://www.pokerprophecy.com), data history you can see we have improved from our decline and we will hopefully reach our goal of 20,000 games recorded today.

[ QUOTE ]

it is currently useless for table selection. PP relies on PArty software for updates. and you know how bad Party software is. it might list 1 player at the table, but when you double click to see the table, there might be 8 players already sitting there.

and PP is useless for multitabling selection. once you sit at a table, it will only give you stats on that table.

so if you 4 table, and *IF* party software updates fast enough that you PP is able to retrieve names from the tables, it'll only help with table selection for 1 table.

you'll have to manually enter names for the other 3 tables. that is a pain, and is inconvienent. not to mention that you'll only have time to enter like 2 names before the table fills up.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are also going to be adding two features to help with the above situations.

First we are adding a table selection, much like the player selection, type in the table and get your data.

Second we are adding an automatic search feature that as soon as a player sits down at a table Poker Prophecy will update your table list so no more waiting on the Lobby to update.

If any one has any more suggestions or comments please let me know via post or pm, Thanks.

[zambonidrivr]

i have poker office and i love it. it tracks every hand and all stats against any player i have seen. flop %'s, and agression factors alone help me determine what I think of someone.

[AA suited]

duke44,

eta for this new improved version?

and when will it work with eurobet?

[duke44]

We do not have an actual hard timeline for the new features, roughly we are looking at two to three weeks.

Right now we are working on a few bugs in Poker Prophecy, our new website, and revamping our Top 50. It looks like we are going to do an end of the year tourney with the Top 50 players from 2005 invited to play for a spot in the 2006 WSOP.

Eurobet will be coming after we get the above features completed.

[lemuri]

forgive the naive Q but: How does prophecy gather these statistics legally/without querying a locked DB? If db is not public, can I run my own queries?

Gotta admit i was a little surpised/taken aback/impressed when a dude at my table was telling me my stats... accurately

cheers,
Lemur