Stars $650 WSOP sat. Turned top 2, insta-call?

[PennDisc]

This situation came up in an unraised pot, early in the second round of the Stars Sunday WSOP satellite. My read on the villain is that he won't make a big bluff or semibluff in this spot, he must believe he has the best hand. I haven't seen him overbet like this before, and he had strong hands when making raises earlier. He did like to limp often and see flops in the early rounds. I took my time thinking about this call, but should it be a very easy decision?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP3 (t1625)
CO (t2895)
Button (t2730)
SB (t2155)
Hero (t2825)
UTG (t2125)
UTG+1 (t3385)
MP1 (t2475)
MP2 (t2285)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls t30, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO calls t30, Button calls t30, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t150) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t120</font>, UTG folds, CO calls t120, Button folds, SB folds.

Turn: (t390) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t270</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t2745</font>, Hero ??

Anyone raise this preflop knowing I'll be playing the rest of the hand out of position? I had seen UTG limp in the same position with KK earlier so I didn't want to face a reraise or get in a tough spot with 1 pair later out of position.

Anyway, on the turn, I'm losing to TJ or a set. KK and QQ are unlikely given my hand and the preflop action. I also thought that a set would have raised the flop given the possible flush draw and the number of players. But if the villain was slowplaying a set on the flop, would he then overbet like crazy on the turn? Or what are the chances a guy calls a gutshot for implied odds, but then makes a ridiculous all-in raise after hitting? His bet to me seems like he really wants me out of the pot. What do you put the villain on here?

[schwza]

i have a hard time putting him on a range just because i think his line sucks regardless of what he has. a badly played Q9?

i think it's gotta be a call though. 44/99 doesn't have any reason to believe you're strong enough to call this push.

[DonT77]

He had A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and he caught one of his 13 outs on the river after you called. Am I close?

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
My read on the villain is that he won't make a big bluff or semibluff in this spot, he must believe he has the best hand

[/ QUOTE ]

c'mon... nobody gives incorrect reads on 2+2.

[augie00]

[ QUOTE ]
He had A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and he caught one of his 13 outs on the river after you called. Am I close?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he had A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif he didn't have 13 outs.

[slickpoppa]

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He had A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and he caught one of his 13 outs on the river after you called. Am I close?

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If he had A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif he didn't have 13 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two 4s + three Aces + 8 diamonds = 13 outs

[DonT77]

Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif was not an out for him, it would have given hero a full house.

[slickpoppa]

yeah, so it is 13 then

[PennDisc]

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My read on the villain is that he won't make a big bluff or semibluff in this spot, he must believe he has the best hand

[/ QUOTE ]

c'mon... nobody gives incorrect reads on 2+2.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I don't know how many people do this.. but I would find it somewhat pointless to post a read just to come back later and say that the villain had a hand I thought he couldn't have based on my read. Plus, if I came back and said "Guys I called and he was on a complete bluff so I doubled up." I'd look like the idiot for posting in the first place.

[DonT77]

And we never see a bad beat post disguised as a 'what would you have done' post either - /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[schwza]

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My read on the villain is that he won't make a big bluff or semibluff in this spot, he must believe he has the best hand

[/ QUOTE ]

c'mon... nobody gives incorrect reads on 2+2.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I don't know how many people do this.. but I would find it somewhat pointless to post a read just to come back later and say that the villain had a hand I thought he couldn't have based on my read. Plus, if I came back and said "Guys I called and he was on a complete bluff so I doubled up." I'd look like the idiot for posting in the first place.

[/ QUOTE ]

i understand what you're saying, but i think it's valid to post hands where you're surprised by the villain's holding. a read should be along the lines of "i'm confident he won't overbet w/ a semi-bluff" but posters should recognize that it's not impossible.

sometimes i feel like "reads" are determined after the fact when the villain shows his cards - more like hints to the repliers than the hero's actual frame of mind at the time.

[schwza]

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And we never see a bad beat post disguised as a 'what would you have done' post either - /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

um, except what you said happens 100000 times a day and what i said never happens. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[DonT77]

I've posted a bad read before /images/graemlins/blush.gif


(I guess this also rules out my A4 guess.)

[locutus2002]

My guess is villain has K9c, and doesn't want to put in a reraise with button and SB still to act.
After the turn he puts you on a K, doesn't want to make a tough decision if a T or a J comes on the river, and puts you all in figuring his 2 pr are still good. I might have played this hand like this.

[PennDisc]

[ QUOTE ]
sometimes i feel like "reads" are determined after the fact when the villain shows his cards - more like hints to the repliers than the hero's actual frame of mind at the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This I agree with although I don't try to do it intentionally. Or sometimes after the fact it's hard to remember how strongly you felt about this read beforehand. After seeing this particular play, and subsequent plays later on, you develop a read on a player beyond what you had in the hand but include that in your description.

[A_PLUS]

Looks to me like he picked up something to go with his Diamond draw. Maybe paired the Q, maybe nailed JT. I dont like overbets, so I would have called and lost all of my chips when he rivered me.

[woodguy]

Haven't read any other guesses yet....

[ QUOTE ]
What do you put the villain on here?

[/ QUOTE ]

K4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif or K9 /images/graemlins/club.gif and he thinks your're drawing to /images/graemlins/diamond.gif flush and now that there is another broadway card on the board and only 1 card to come he just wants the pot now.

Was I close?

Regards,
Woodguy

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
Haven't read any other guesses yet....

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What do you put the villain on here?

[/ QUOTE ]

K4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif or K9 /images/graemlins/club.gif and he thinks your're drawing to /images/graemlins/diamond.gif flush and now that there is another broadway card on the board and only 1 card to come he just wants the pot now.

Was I close?

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt it. This hand probably wouldn't be posted if the hero didn't lose.

[adanthar]

A set probably doesn't raise the flop, at least if this guy is like me (one draw, pot bet to him, who cares about the other guys right now). But then he makes this massive bet on the turn, which is unlike what a set *should* do.

I think 2 pair is the right read and it's probably something like a K9s or even another KQ. I'd call.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt it. This hand probably wouldn't be posted if the hero didn't lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is still a river to see......

As a side note, when I have been turning the nuts lately I have been grossly overbetting the pot and getting called far more than when I value bet......hmmmmmm

Stay tuned for my treatasie on "Costanza Poker: Do the Opposite and you will win"

Regards,
Woodguy

[Seadood228]

What he said..

I've played in a lot of these, and you'll be surprised what you'll get shown down. You'll get shown a set a small percentage of the time, and unbelievably marginal hands the rest.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt it. This hand probably wouldn't be posted if the hero didn't lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about you, but I post hands I ended up winning if I was unsure of my play.

[slickpoppa]

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I doubt it. This hand probably wouldn't be posted if the hero didn't lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is still a river to see......

As a side note, when I have been turning the nuts lately I have been grossly overbetting the pot and getting called far more than when I value bet......hmmmmmm

Stay tuned for my treatasie on "Costanza Poker: Do the Opposite and you will win"

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but this hand smells like the "I had a good hand, but could I have gotten away from it?" variety rather than a "I had the best hand when the money went in and got sucked out" variety.

[A_PLUS]

haha, also if we keep playing so much poker, we will be abstaining from sex (fat, pale, degenerates get no chicks), and we know what that does for brain power.

There isnt a more satisfying play in poker than the huge overbet with a made hand when you have been really lagging it up and someone looks like they are prepared to make a stand.

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
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I doubt it. This hand probably wouldn't be posted if the hero didn't lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about you, but I post hands I ended up winning if I was unsure of my play.

[/ QUOTE ]

So do I. But neither you nor I posted the hand in question.

[blockafor]

Villain has AA.

[PennDisc]

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I doubt it. This hand probably wouldn't be posted if the hero didn't lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about you, but I post hands I ended up winning if I was unsure of my play.

[/ QUOTE ]

So do I. But neither you nor I posted the hand in question.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I do post both hands I win and that I lose, so it could have been either. In this one, I did call after using more than a minute and a half of my time bank, and he had a lower 2 pair. schzwa had it right off the bat with Q9. The point of the post wasn't really to elicit a bunch of guesses, but more to determine whether I was weak-tight for even giving it that much thought. (hence the "insta-call?" in my title) Nobody said fold, and nobody said to insta-call either, so it seems like my line of reasoning at the time was warranted.

The other thing about the hand that I found interesting was that his line didn't make sense for many hands. So if you take for granted my no-bluff read (yes this is a big assumption) he has something that is beating the top pair that I've represented on the flop and turn. Without being able to narrow further, I really could be ahead or behind.

In retrospect, his play makes some sense in that he decided to draw on the flop to his 5-outer, and raised when it hit, going all-in to avoid a difficult decision on the river. Any T,J, or club makes his decision difficult, and if I do have top pair like he suspects, a K or 4 kills his hand. Plus he doesn't know what other card will make me 2 pair to beat him. In my opinion it was still a big overplay on his part to put his whole stack in on a T650 pot but I could see how he would think he's ahead.

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I doubt it. This hand probably wouldn't be posted if the hero didn't lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about you, but I post hands I ended up winning if I was unsure of my play.

[/ QUOTE ]

So do I. But neither you nor I posted the hand in question.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I do post both hands I win and that I lose, so it could have been either. In this one, I did call after using more than a minute and a half of my time bank, and he had a lower 2 pair. schzwa had it right off the bat with Q9. The point of the post wasn't really to elicit a bunch of guesses, but more to determine whether I was weak-tight for even giving it that much thought. (hence the "insta-call?" in my title) Nobody said fold, and nobody said to insta-call either, so it seems like my line of reasoning at the time was warranted.

The other thing about the hand that I found interesting was that his line didn't make sense for many hands. So if you take for granted my no-bluff read (yes this is a big assumption) he has something that is beating the top pair that I've represented on the flop and turn. Without being able to narrow further, I really could be ahead or behind.

In retrospect, his play makes some sense in that he decided to draw on the flop to his 5-outer, and raised when it hit, going all-in to avoid a difficult decision on the river. Any T,J, or club makes his decision difficult, and if I do have top pair like he suspects, a K or 4 kills his hand. Plus he doesn't know what other card will make me 2 pair to beat him. In my opinion it was still a big overplay on his part to put his whole stack in on a T650 pot but I could see how he would think he's ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing personal man, just in my experience about 80% of the hands posted on here are losers.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain has AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not a bad guess.......

Turn looks like it.

Regards,
Woodguy

[PennDisc]

[ QUOTE ]
Nothing personal man, just in my experience about 80% of the hands posted on here are losers.

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense taken - I agree that a good percentage of posts are "how can I get away from this" or good plays that lose looking for confirmation. Though the 80% figure may be a bit high...

[Scooterdoo]

I don't think it's an insta-call, but I would probably come to the conclusion to call. My best guess, assuming the villain is a typical player, is that he has (from most likely to least likely): a) K9; b) same hand as you - KQ; c) AQd or an inferior Axd hand; d) 44 - quite possible, although he should raise on the flop given the flush draw; e) an inferior hand to a bluff which is least likely.

[Scooterdoo]

Just saw the results. I guess Q9 makes a lot of sense too. Good hand!