Bubble Situation

[GtrHtr]

I had this situation come up on the bubble last night on UB. UTG has been the table LAG but not a maniac. His stack size has gone up and down in 1000 chip movements. I have been playing TAG but getting very good cards so playing in more hands than I normally will play in the early levels. I've been HU with UTG once on level 4 (60/30) where he slow played a flopped set to my TPTK. I have had to try to recreate the hand - didn't save the HH at the time so no converter, sorry if it is a mess.

Blinds: 200/100

SB (t2400)
BB (t4150)
UTG (t4200)
Hero (t4250)

Preflop: Hero is on the Button with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif, K /images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, Hero raises 700, 2 folds, UTG raises all-in.
Hero?

[Karak567]

If he's LAG I say this is an easy call.

[obisponator]

Logically, there are only two hands that have you owned, AA or KK. If he's LAG, then you'd think he would raise preflop with one of those hands, although some people are unorthodox. I say it's an easy call.

[barycentric]

Do you think LAGs don't limp-reraise AA or KK? At the least, you're up against a pair. This seems to suggest a fold.

[Gypsy Cabs]

While it is possible that you could have him dominated, it is much more likely that you're in a race. I tend to avoid race situations while on the bubble.

If SB had less I would say this is an easy fold, but with 4th place still having 12x BB this is still really anyone's game. I'd fold, but calling doesn't seem like a bad idea.

[Moonsugar]

You always give the deepest, most well thought out answers.

[Moonsugar]

If you fold here your equity is ~25% of the pool. If you call and lose your equity is almost 0%. If you call and win your equity is ~40%. You have to beat him 60% of the time for this to be a breakeven call. You have to beat him more than 60% to make money on this call.

So, do you think this player would play a range of cards this way that you could beat 60% of the time with AKs?

[Gypsy Cabs]

[ QUOTE ]
If you fold here your equity is ~25% of the pool. If you call and lose your equity is almost 0%. If you call and win your equity is ~40%. You have to beat him 60% of the time for this to be a breakeven call. You have to beat him more than 60% to make money on this call.

So, do you think this player would play a range of cards this way that you could beat 60% of the time with AKs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you explain how you got those numbers? I'm getting something a bit different.

[Moonsugar]

Will write this out in text as many people, myself included, have a hard time following unfamiliar equations.

There are 3 possible outcomes (I ignore ties in this case as the blinds are quite small relative to stack sizes):

1) Hero folds
2) Hero calls and loses.
3) Hero calls and wins.

Plug the resulting final chipcounts into a ICM calculator.

To find the breakeven we have to have ICM1 = weighted average of ICM2 & ICM3. The weight is the Hero's win % for ICM3 and Hero's loss % for ICM2 (also, 1-win%). So we can solve for the win% needed to make ICM1 = weighted average of ICM2 & ICM3.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
If you fold here your equity is ~25% of the pool. If you call and lose your equity is almost 0%. If you call and win your equity is ~40%. You have to beat him 60% of the time for this to be a breakeven call. You have to beat him more than 60% to make money on this call.

So, do you think this player would play a range of cards this way that you could beat 60% of the time with AKs?

[/ QUOTE ]

this was my general thought process in the hand. He had been playing a whole range of hands up to this point.