Post Flop Play

[KaneKungFu123]

6 handed
5-10 party

i have no reads, just sat down.

guy limps utg, sb completes, im in bb w/ 94

it comes

T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

sb bets $10, I raise $50, UTG raises $150

i am not folding here. i think he has JJ-AA a large percentage of the time. a flush draw a very small percentage of the time.

what is your play here? what is your plan on the turn depending on which card comes.

my thoughts to follow...

[Garland]

Too much missing info...

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i have no reads, just sat down.

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i am not folding here. i think he has JJ-AA a large percentage of the time. a flush draw a very small percentage of the time

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A weak read if you just sat down and have no knowledge of the player. UTG has shown strength over two random blind hands aggressive actions. I would seriously give a set or T9 more weight than you're giving. Probably ~40% set or top two, ~35% overpair, ~20% AT/KT, ~5% flush draw/other.

You forgot to announce SB's action. I assume SB folded.

You also forgot stack sizes again. This is important.

I will assume the stacks are enormous enough to make three more big bet decisions on the flop, turn and river.

You say you won't fold here, so I guess I have no choice but to call the flop, check-call the turn and check-fold the river push unimproved.

Garland

[AZK]

Given that you won't fold and put him on an overpair, I like check-raising all in on the turn.

[soah]

If he just sat down then his stack size must be 1000.

[Garland]

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If he just sat down then his stack size must be 1000.

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Although that is a good point, it's not necessarily true unless it was his very first hand /images/graemlins/smile.gif. I take "just sat down" to mean anything from very first hand to first few orbits.

Also we are left to guess that UTG has hero covered, and is not short-stacked.

Garland

[chuddo]

never folding here? are you saying you are going to the felt if say a 2c peels off on the turn?

if that is the case and you are that confident he is holding an overpair as often as you claim, then just call.

on a non-flush turn, you can bet weakly (1/3 pot) into him, and if he is holding an overpair, he may read you for pricing yourself into a flush-draw, and will subsequently raise you pretty big, and you can go ahead and 3-bet it in there.

on a flushing turn, you can make a case for either checking (hoping he will fear a transparent flush check-raise), or bet, it all kind of depends on the card.

i hate playing bottom two, out of position, against someone that is putting in a second raise, with a flush/straight draw on the board. he may have a hand like Ah10h that has you notched and is wanting to get all of his chips in the middle.

[flawless_victory]

if the guy started this hand with a dime, checkraise the turn allin on a blank...

[KaneKungFu123]

i have $1000. He has me covered. SB folded.

20% AT/KT is way too high.

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Too much missing info...

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i have no reads, just sat down.

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i am not folding here. i think he has JJ-AA a large percentage of the time. a flush draw a very small percentage of the time

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A weak read if you just sat down and have no knowledge of the player. UTG has shown strength over two random blind hands aggressive actions. I would seriously give a set or T9 more weight than you're giving. Probably ~40% set or top two, ~35% overpair, ~20% AT/KT, ~5% flush draw/other.

You forgot to announce SB's action. I assume SB folded.

You also forgot stack sizes again. This is important.

I will assume the stacks are enormous enough to make three more big bet decisions on the flop, turn and river.

You say you won't fold here, so I guess I have no choice but to call the flop, check-call the turn and check-fold the river push unimproved.

Garland

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[Rotating Rabbit]

I think a push all in here is evil. I push in.

The trouble with seeing a turn half the deck has potential to kill the action. Any A, J, 10, 7, heart etc will minimise your winnings. And even IF a blank hits, after you call his 3-bet, there's -some- chance he'll shutdown. And if he hits his two outer as he does 5% of the time, you suffer major losses.

Edit: remember he only has to call your push 30% of the time to make it +EV on check raising a turn, and thats assuming nothing goes wrong.

[ansky451]

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And if he hits his two outer as he does 5% of the time, you suffer major losses.

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What possible 2 outer is there other than a pocket pair under 9, which is about 0.001% chance of being in the range of hands. If he has AA he has 5 outs, and 8 on the turn if it is not a 9 or 4.

[Garland]

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I think a push all in here is evil. I push in.

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You seriously think an average $5/$10 blind NL1000 player with an overpair can't get away from this? Even at $2/$4 blinds, people with only one pair postflop tend to not back their stacks with it in a limped pot. They start becoming aware that it's a serious leak, otherwise they won't be playing NL1000 for long. Personally, if I feel he has a worse hand, I don't want to let him off the hook, but at the same time if he has a better hand, I want to lose less.

Garland

[KaneKungFu123]

im never folding on the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
never folding here? are you saying you are going to the felt if say a 2c peels off on the turn?

if that is the case and you are that confident he is holding an overpair as often as you claim, then just call.

on a non-flush turn, you can bet weakly (1/3 pot) into him, and if he is holding an overpair, he may read you for pricing yourself into a flush-draw, and will subsequently raise you pretty big, and you can go ahead and 3-bet it in there.

on a flushing turn, you can make a case for either checking (hoping he will fear a transparent flush check-raise), or bet, it all kind of depends on the card.

i hate playing bottom two, out of position, against someone that is putting in a second raise, with a flush/straight draw on the board. he may have a hand like Ah10h that has you notched and is wanting to get all of his chips in the middle.

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[Rotating Rabbit]

duh...2 PURE outs, if a 10 hits villian wont be able to capitalise. Outs that villian doesnt know are outs dont count.

[Rotating Rabbit]

No, thats not what I said. I said I think 30% of the time you get called. I think that most of the time AA will fold. But you only need a call less ¬25% of the time when you factor in that barely any turn helps you, and plenty will help villian either by a) improving him, b) shutting him down. With a 9 and 10 on board and no preflop raise, its tough for villian to put hero on a set. So villian has to put hero on 2 pair (tough) or a big draw out of position. I think AT LEAST 25% of the time the call is made.

[coltrane]

well, given that you feel villain's range of hands here includes drawing hands and made hands that you are ahead of, the best play is to call his raise and lead out for the full pot (or close to it) on a safe turn card.....if he raises you there, I let it go......

[-Skeme-]

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If he just sat down then his stack size must be 1000.

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No such thing as buying in for less than max?

[ImJWish]

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Edit: remember he only has to call your push 30% of the time to make it +EV on check raising a turn, and thats assuming nothing goes wrong.

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Could you explain that clearer rabbit? thanks

[NickPoker]

I don't think you mind a fold with bottem 2 even if has an overpair, especially being out of positin without a great read. So though it may not be optimal, you can make a case for a push over the $150. The problem of course if he has a set or top 2, but it sounds like Kane is not getting away from it anyway if that is the holding.

[KaneKungFu123]

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I don't think you mind a fold with bottem 2 even if has an overpair, especially being out of positin without a great read. So though it may not be optimal, you can make a case for a push over the $150. The problem of course if he has a set or top 2, but it sounds like Kane is not getting away from it anyway if that is the holding.

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if i reraised on the flop, and he pushed, i might get away from it. when i said im never folding, i meant simply for that sole decision.

[NickPoker]

makes since, I would re-raise then $300 more to $450, and consider folding to a push.

[gomberg]

I don't know, I'd have a lot of trouble folding to a push there against all but a readable pusher (never would do it on a draw or an overpair). The board is too coordinated to fold that often.

[NickPoker]

If he's not going to fold to a push, then I would push myself instead of raising $300, unless he has strong read that if he re-raises, he can get the villian to push his stack on a bluff. I agree with you Gomberg in that it is not an automatic fold if came back over the top.

[gomberg]

yeah - I think I like a push here as an overpair could for sure call you and you take away odds of a draw that may call. Plus it's always more fun to push /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Rotating Rabbit]

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Edit: remember he only has to call your push 30% of the time to make it +EV on check raising a turn, and thats assuming nothing goes wrong.

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Could you explain that clearer rabbit? thanks

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I was estimating in my head but i'll detail briefly, I dont want to type 100 sides! Assume villian has a median KK, and will not call a check raise on the turn.

Check raise strategy: You're not going to get more than 250 out of villian if he doesnt improve. There's a very good chance villian sees his 3-bet as a last punch; when hero calls this strong play oop villian will shut down, or you'll get 1 pot sized bet from him circa 250. Given the number of scare or semi-scare cards: A, J, 10 (villian wont know it saved him), 6, heart, ie about 50% of the deck! combined with hero's scary call of villians 3-bet, there's a big chance villian will check behind on the turn, say 50%. If he checks behind, he'll call a 250 bet on the river say 50% of the time. So assuming hero always stays ahead, hero extracts a 250 from villian with probability 0.5 + 0.5*0.5 = 0.75. Thus hero extracts about 180. Not that great is it.

But alas the plot thickens; we have more deductions to make: Villian has a small chance of setting up. This will be horrific. If (5%) it comes on the turn, Hero certainly loses his 250 bet and probably an average of 250 (this assumption plays the smallest role) on the river PLUS the money in the pot before the turn hits, 300. I.e. a loss of 5%*800 = 40. If it comes on the river, (seen 50% of the time, ie net probability 2.5%) the turn will have been check-check, now KKF fires 250, villian raises and KKF folds. Net loss 2.5%*550=25.

We ignore chances of them both improving, as its insignificant.

Thus the total amount made from the c/r strategy is 180-40-25 = 115.

So you see now, villian only needs to call the all in a very small amount of the time to make it a more profitable play.