20+2 To be or not to be (a wuss on the bubble).

[Freudian]

UTG is somewhat tight and haven't raised more than one hand up to now.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t1230)
SB (t1470)
BB (t1010)
UTG (t1585)
Hero (t2705)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG goes all-in [t1585] , <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t450

[Karak567]

I'm pretty sure it's a crime to fold here.

[Matt Walker]

I call I think at worst your a coinflip and take a look at how the stacks would be if you call and win here. You would have a dominate stack on the bubble. You have almost a lock on first if you win this hand.

[J-Lo]

this really depends on how much of a wuss u REALLY are. Are u willing ot push any two the next 3 hands? If you are willing to do that, i fold this and push every other hand til it gets 3 handed.

If u put UTG on AQ+, 77+ this call is break even at best. I fold and use my chip advantage and pick on the pusher and rest of table, but especially the pusher.
If u call and lose, u are down to 1200, if u call and win u have 4400.

[joeboe2001]

Sorry to bore you with a repetitious analogy but...

You are walking on a road along a canyon, looking for a place to cross.

You come to a rickety bridge--if you attempt to cross here, there is a 50% chance you will fall to your death.

On the other hand, you could walk a bit further and find a better bridge.

Which would you do?

Your opponent probably has some pair, it doesn't really matter which...your AK is still a drawing hand. You already have some time invested in this tournament. I have no problem waiting for the better bridge.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

If u put UTG on AQ+, 77+ this call is break even at best. I fold and use my chip advantage and pick on the pusher and rest of table, but especially the pusher.
If u call and lose, u are down to 1200, if u call and win u have 4400.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats where the problem lies. Putting a range on a tight guy that hasn't done much raising up to now. Granted he has to loosen up with these blinds but how much?

[Nick M]

forget the range...I make it easy on myself. If I have AK and someone moves in 5 handed I call. I mean there would have to be a ridiculous situation that would cause me to fold here. If I had 4500 and villian had 5000 and the other 3 had 1000 each maybe I fold here. But seriously do you think he has KK or AA??? If not than the chance of him have Ax is to great to fold.

[adanthar]

If UTG is 'somewhat tight' the same way as a 2+2'er is 'somewhat tight', this is terrible. If he's 'somewhat tight' as in 'the rockiest rock that ever rocked', this is decent to mediocre.

To put it another way, you'd have to be over 80% sure he has a pair and not an AQ to make this fold.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
If UTG is 'somewhat tight' the same way as a 2+2'er is 'somewhat tight', this is terrible. If he's 'somewhat tight' as in 'the rockiest rock that ever rocked', this is decent to mediocre.

To put it another way, you'd have to be over 80% sure he has a pair and not an AQ to make this fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has a preflop raise of 1.x% after 60 hands (~20% flops seen). Thats not 2+2 tight.

[valenzuela]

bah, may freudian plz be so kind to use his stack?
EDIT: u have 2 lives, u can risk one of them.

[Matt Walker]

I think it is extremely bad to fold here. Even if someone ran an ICM and said it was wrong to call given his range, I still do it. Look at the stacks if you call and win:
Button (t1230)
SB (t1320)
BB (t710)
Hero (t4740)
Can't you see why this is extremely in your advantage? ICM doesn't take this into consideration.

Besides this I think there is a good chance you have him dominated. Hed have to be a complete rock not to push aq and ajs there.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it is extremely bad to fold here. Even if someone ran an ICM and said it was wrong to call given his range, I still do it. Look at the stacks if you call and win:
Button (t1230)
SB (t1320)
BB (t710)
Hero (t4740)
Can't you see why this is extremely in your advantage? ICM doesn't take this into consideration.

Besides this I think there is a good chance you have him dominated. Hed have to be a complete rock not to push aq and ajs there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course its good to call and win. But I could reason that way when I have any pair. Calling and losing will put me in a tough position where I probably have to push close to any two (stack of 1200 and a 450 in blinds coming soon). With blinds these big and a stack of 2700 I still like my chances. It's not like I had planned to fold my way into the money here.

I think this is a 50/50 situation here (sometimes I have him dominated and sometimes he has me dominated, rest of the time I expect to see a pair). And I will no matter what cards I get have better ways to accumulate chips with three scared small stacks.

[Benfica]

I really like the "find a steadier bridge" concept....

[microbet]

Very player dependent. I'd say if you can't see him doing this with A9 or maybe even A8 it is a fold.

He is under 6 BBs so a lot of players will push here with less, but you say he is tight, so I think it is a fold.

I think a lot of players overvalue any PP and I think you see very low PP push here more than, say AT or even AJ - that's bad for this hand.

[microbet]

Coinflips are for situations like "he probably folds, but if he calls, it is likely a coinflip."

If you call here, you want it to be ahead of their range.

[valenzuela]

ehh...arent we ahead of his range /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[microbet]

It's complicated to do the ICM with the chances that the other players acting after might call, but if you assume they fold, it is about neutral $EV to call if his range is 55+, AT+.

That seems like a perfectly reasonable range to put a fairly tight player on.

[microbet]

Depends on his range. If it were you pushing, I'd call in a heartbeat, but this guy has raised only once in the SNG so far.

[Freudian]

If it was a 2+2er or if he has raised at least 5%+ preflop up to now, I would probably have called.

With me only having 60 hands against the guy it is hard to know if he just was getting bad cards or was unwilling to push with anything but a very good hand.

Btw, I think we have to assume the chances of anyone calling after me is very low if I call here.

[Moonsugar]

All the people who could call behind will probably lower the ICM EV calculation, remember there is a 50% equity cap.

If we put UTG on a range this tight (which I think is reasonable) we should fold and hope BB calls.

[ilya]

Dude! Like, push.