55 on the bubble

[jeffraider]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t2415)
BB (t550)
UTG (t2515)
Hero (t940)
Button (t1580)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t940 (All-In)</font>

Is this automatic?

[Karak567]

Yes.

[jeffraider]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I RAISE YOU THIS HAND THEN (the actual hand I meant to post d'oh)

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t3910)
SB (t1900)
BB (t930)
Hero (t1260)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of t200.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1260 (All-In)</font>

[curtains]

Yes they are both automatic.

[jeffraider]

[ QUOTE ]

Yes they are both automatic.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool, thanks so much for your help! I was a little unsure of it because I've got a few hundred chips on the short stack and there was "only" 200 to get rather than the standard 300. It doesn't matter but I was called by ATo and he won the coinflip.

[Bill Poker]

how about this one, too early to push? fold?


No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

Hero (t2310)
SB (t2200)
BB (t2100)
UTG(t3060)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q9s.
1 fold, Hero raises to t2310 (All-In)

[flyby4553]

I dont think you need to push here, but if the SB and BB have been reasonably tight its probably fine.

[curtains]

Well I hate folding, so it's between the other options.

[Nick M]

I disagree in the second one. The BB is short and he is going to call with a lot of hands. You are at best a flip here so I fold. If the SB and BB were reversed I push.

[curtains]

Folding is really quite terrible in the 2nd hand. Your analysis seems to be based on random instinct and no concrete math, which is basically what this stage of a sit and go is all about.

If you turned your 55 faceup, it's +CHIP EV to push with about 2900 in chips. You have 1200 chips, this isn't a remotely close decision. Constantly folding hands like this will cost you a lot of money in the long run.

Of course chip EV is not the only thing to come into play, however the discrepency here is too large. If you put everyone on an unrealistically loose calling range, then its breakeven according to eastbay's program. Using normalish ranges its +EV by about .3-.8 depending on the ranges.

[Nick M]

ahahhahaha could your explain you reasoning...I explained mine and seems pretty solid.

[curtains]

Sorry was editing my post. My main point is that these decisions shouldn't be based on your "instinct". Without knowing all the math involved, and knowing how often 55 will be the best hand, and how much the CHIP EV is worth if everyone knew your exact hand, and estimating the calling ranges of your opponents your answer will never be more than a guess. If the BB calls with any 2 its -EV, but no one is that loose or even close to it here.

[valenzuela]

yes, but this isnt the bubble.

[jeffraider]

[ QUOTE ]
yes, but this isnt the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

OOOH MR $55 FANCY PANTS THINKS HE KNOWS ABOUT THE BUBBLE

No just kidding, I meant to post the second hand originally, which is on the bubble. /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[Nick M]

[ QUOTE ]
My main point is that these decisions shouldn't be based on your "instinct". Without knowing all the math involved, and knowing how often 55 will be the best hand, and how much the CHIP EV is worth if everyone knew your exact hand, and estimating the calling ranges of your opponents your answer will never be more than a guess.

[/ QUOTE ]


So you think pushing here is positive EV???? I have a feeling it isn't. Do you have that eastbay thingy??? Run the numbers if you can. Also do you know what the buy in is???? I think BB calls with a lot of hands here. He's getting just about 2 to 1.

[curtains]

I ran the numbers already, although I didn't need to. The BB isn't calling with stuff like T8o. Most players won't even call from the BB with something like A3o IMO.

With the following ranges its +.4 EV, which is a signifigant amount to give up on the bubble:

Button - 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+
SB - 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+
BB - 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,K9o+,Q9s+, Q9o+, JTo+

Basically you can create calling ranges that makes it -EV, however I think these ranges are definitely not the norm. Also I gave the BB a much looser range than I'd expect, to give you the benefit of the doubt. Sometimes people will be tighter than the above ranges, sometimes they will be looser, however I think you give up a lot by assuming these players will always call you with hands like A7o.

[Nick M]

sooooooo +.4 EV...this is a lot? Sorry I don't know how this calucation thing works, but what would be a little? +.04? With 1260 and 100/200 blinds on the bubble you risk it all for +.4 EV? To each his own I guess. Thanks for research though on that calculator program.

[valenzuela]

its +ev on cash( the one u use to buy food) not on chips, hope this makes sense.

[Nick M]

Yeah like I said... +.4 doesn't seem like enough for me.

Sorry I guess we disagree...

[valenzuela]

youre wrong, Im right . WHY THE FCUK DO YOU MAKE MORE MONEY BY NOT DOING A +EV PLAY-

[Nick M]

wow you're a dic...

[valenzuela]

nah I just acted unapropiatly. But if you refuse to do play that are profitable you have a serious problem.

[loose passive]

I raise you this 55 hand almost on the bubble...

Was this wrong here? How much longer should I wait before trying this? Should I just make a small raise? Dump the hand? Limp?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t910)
UTG (t1405)
Hero (t1435)
Button (t2080)
SB (t7670)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1435</font>,

[Nick M]

Actually I think you have a serious problem...who treats someone like that for no reason? Do me a favor don't repsond to any of my posts anymore. I come on here to talk about strategy and socialize, not be treated like a piece of Sh!t. And obviously like I said a million Fcuking times...+.4 EV is not enough for me in this spot. It's a matter of opinion, learn to deal with it.

[valenzuela]

gee I apologized and still..well whatever Ill do you a favor and never repson to any of ur post ever againn excluding this one.

ps: ure wrong, Im right /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah like I said... +.4 doesn't seem like enough for me.

Sorry I guess we disagree...

[/ QUOTE ]


.4 is a ridiculously large amount of which regularly giving up on the bubble will hurt your profits severely IMO.