wsop double shootout hand

[Tyler Durden]

4 handed at my first table. BB is 100, I am in 2nd w/ 4k. Loose chip leader limps UTG, I make it 275 on the button w/ A9. He calls, heads up.

983r. He checks and calls 500. Pot is 1700.

Turn 9. He checks and calls 1200.

River Q. Backdoor flush gets there and JT. He bets out 1500. If I call and lose I have t500.

thoughts?

[PattyMcFatty]

Hes made a nice bet here. I don't think theres anyway you can call- hes played the hand as if drawing the entire way. I mean, he could have any range of hands, but he'd have to be a pretty discplined/creative bluffer to pull this sort of stunt.(waiting till river) I mean, it doesnt appear there is many busted draws he could be bluffing at here, only somehting like 67. If he actually made it, hes probably aware you will check this river.

[IHateKeithSmart]

Looks like he made his straight here, don't see him sticking around otherwise. He could be making a move, but being weak-tight, I fold here.

[Chief911]

Tyler,

Can you explain the reasoning behind your bet size on the turn?

What do you think he thinks you have? Does he see you as a rock, LAG, fish?

What does he want you to do when he bets 1500 on the river?

Nick

[Tyler Durden]

Well there's 1700 in the pot, 1200 seemed like a good amount to bet. It was that or move in. I chose 1200 b/c I thought I could get more value this way.

[Chief911]

Further:

Does he play AA/KK/QQ/JJ this way? VERY doubtful.

From his line, sure looks like 33, 88, or another 9. JT is also strong here.

[NLfool]

agreed the bet looks like he wants a call too much, leaving you with something but not broke. I first thought maybe something like QJ/QT but a fold looks prudent here I lean 60/40 for fold

[2005]

Tyler IM'd me this hand and I told him I'd call, but I call too much, so I don't know if you should listen to me. I also don't think it's a terrible fold, so my opinion on this is pretty much retarded

Gavin

[Tyler Durden]

[ QUOTE ]
Further:

Does he play AA/KK/QQ/JJ this way? VERY doubtful.

From his line, sure looks like 33, 88, or another 9. JT is also strong here.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, he pulled limp reraises earlier w/ big pairs. So I don't think he has a big pair here.

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call, but I call too much, so I don't know if you should listen to me. I also don't think it's a terrible fold, so my opinion on this is pretty much retarded


[/ QUOTE ]

This response seems fairly ambiguous, yet is probably spot on (except the part about being retarded).

The situation simply dictates that you'll be in this spot, and that this spot ain't good.

The only conceivable way to avoid this spot is to either limp or muck the hand instead preflop, keeping the pot small enough to get away (or not getting involved at all).

I'd call, because you have a long way to go no matter what, and doubling against K9 or a rare bare ass bluff is at least a possibility.

And because we know there'll be another tournament any minute.

P.S. I think the turn bet is perfect, fwiw.

[durron597]

I raise more preflop (400 total), and (obviously) adjust my flop and turn bets accordingly. If he has me beat on the river after a large PF raise then he made an FTOP mistake and got lucky, oh well. By the river you are pot committed so you can't fold.

[Chief911]

Tyler,

Ask yourself this. Can you have played this hand perfectly and still lose? Sure. Happens alot in poker.

Now, I'm with Gavin, my first impulse is to call this down. 1/3 the time you are going to win the pot because he has overplayed a worse nine. But 2/3 the time you are going to lose when faced with his line.

If you think you have a good handle on this table, I might very well fold. You have 2k left, and are still in decent position with 20xBB to make your move. And considering some of the donks that play these, you would still have a good chance.

Probably played well. Probably lost. Poker~

Nick

[Chief911]

Durron,

Why is he pot committed? He has 2k (20xBB) left. Has he put a lot into the pot? Sure. But he's far from pot committed.

Nick

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Durron,

Why is he pot committed? He has 2k (20xBB) left. Has he put a lot into the pot? Sure. But he's far from pot committed.

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]

More than half his original stack is in the pot... he's getting 3.7:1 on his call, which means that he only has to be ahead like 22% of the time to call. Unless I'm missing something.

[Tyler Durden]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise more preflop (400 total), and (obviously) adjust my flop and turn bets accordingly. If he has me beat on the river after a large PF raise then he made an FTOP mistake and got lucky, oh well. By the river you are pot committed so you can't fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't want to raise more preflop b/c he was the kind of player that would call w/ a lot of holdings. I wanted to just raise enough to get it heads up w/ him while keeping the pot at a reasonable size.

[Chief911]

While the math is important, isn't the tournament status overall the correct play? If this is NL Ring, he will shove. But this is a tournament. And survival is key. 2k is PLENTY at this point in the tournament.

He is not pot committed IMHO.

Nick

[Scooterdoo]

My thoughts are very similar to that of Rushmore. Either the guys is a) bluffing, b) has K9 or c) has me beat. Given that it's a $160 SnG I probably call and hope for the best. That said, I probably push on the turn given that there is a flush and straight draw on the board and would like to put this guy to the test right now. If he's going for the draw why not get him to commit right now where I'm now a favorite to get all his chips? Also, the push could look like I'm on a draw and want to end it early prior to hitting or that I'm trying to represent the 9 so if he does have a big pair or a smaller 9 I get his chips now. Basically I believe I'm ahead on the turn and want to do my best to maximize value and minimize risk. I think pushing is the best way. No need to get greedy. Also, let's make things simpler on the river. If he already has the full house then he deserves to get my chips.