Disproportionate # of 6th place finishes

[uphigh_downlow]

I'm on party 50 and 30 STTz

I seem to have a disproportionately higher number of 6th place finishes. Everything else is pretty nicely distributed

Anyone else notice this in their stats. Any theories? Possibly some kind of gameplay thats causing this.

[rickr]

My stats show the same. I've looked it over and my theory is this; On average you are down to 6 by late in the third or fourth level. Stealing time. Blinds not high enough to push all in, but high enough for a steal. You still have enough fish (hate calling them fish, let's say gamblers) left, that you will get called on your steals, and you will get called on your real hands by people thinking it's a steal. With that, it's natural than that you will have more bad beats and lose more coin flips.
I haven't done it, but if you sat down and went through HH's, I believe that a disportionate number of tournies are also made (you win a big pot that sets you up for i.t.m.) at the 5 or 6 people left as well.

Later,
Rick

[petertje1007]

I have not played enough S&G's to be totally sure, but I have the same "problem". I'm a S&G newbie play mostly 33s en 55s too. So I'm very intrested in answers here...

Greets P.

PS. Give me a shoutout at the tables if you see me, so I know the players to steal from /images/graemlins/tongue.gif!

[petertje1007]

[ QUOTE ]
My stats show the same. I've looked it over and my theory is this; On average you are down to 6 by late in the third or fourth level. Stealing time. Blinds not high enough to push all in, but high enough for a steal. You still have enough fish (hate calling them fish, let's say gamblers) left, that you will get called on your steals, and you will get called on your real hands by people thinking it's a steal. With that, it's natural than that you will have more bad beats and lose more coin flips.
I haven't done it, but if you sat down and went through HH's, I believe that a disportionate number of tournies are also made (you win a big pot that sets you up for i.t.m.) at the 5 or 6 people left as well.

Later,
Rick

[/ QUOTE ]

So the question is: Is this a leak or do even have the best players this problem ?

Because I see a lot of "finish 4th or 1st" talking here (no offence), with me it's mostly ITM or 6th (7th) place finishes.

Greets P.

PS. I hope my English is readable.

[Phil Van Sexton]

link (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2350732&page=&view=&s b=5&o=&vc=1)

[rickr]

Kind of hate to respond cause it sounds like I'm coming off as one of the best, which I'm far from that, but.

I believe it is just the nature of the game. The blind structure, chip counts, etc., kind of dictates that on average, sometime in 40 hands or so (the first four levels at party) you will get a hand that you want to play. With the blinds being too low to push, you will make more standard raises that will get called more often by less experienced players, which by it's own nature will put you in a position to lose all your chips. That answers for when you have a real hand. Now add to that that the blinds are large enough to start trying position steals with junk, and you compound the issue. I think it's just the nature of the beast.

So a summary would be " You put your chips at risk more with the least folding equity at the 25/50, 50/100 level than at any other time with the possible exception of the bubble."

Is this a leak? Yea. Can you do anything about it? I don't know.
Later,
Rick

[vindikation]

The number one goal of an SnG is to win first place. In general with 7-10 people left you don't want to do anything really to jeopordize you stack without having a monster hand. On the bubble with 4-6 people left, the blinds are increasing and waiting around might slide you into 3rd but you won't have a stack and have no real chance of winning or doing damage. Taking some chances with 4-6 left can bust you out or put you in a great position to win 1st.

I am slowly figuring this out and trying to find some kind of happy medium between being too aggressive on the bubble (stealing blinds) and too passive on the bubble (trying to slide into the money).

I have less than 500 $11 SnG's recorded, but I am tied with 1st and 4th as being my most common finishes. I still have a lot of work to do.

[uphigh_downlow]

I tried to go in to analyze mode and fired up the hand replayer for a bunch of hand historues.

Usually its pretty hard to knock me out before 6th. When it does happen, its when someone outdraws me after I managed to get all chips in play, with a healthy edge, or a Bad Beat, or a tempting pot with amazing pot-odds that I just couldnt resist, and of-course sometimes a bad CALL

Anyway move on to level 3,4,5 with 5,6,7,8 players left.

It seems as if Level 3 nd 4 are special in that they uniquely make 7 card poker very hard to play. Not enough bets, or just enough bets, make life difficicult


Telltale signs of my 6th place finishes.

Continuation bets in level 3 and 4 after you miss a flop.
Tempting small pots that you take a stab at, with a semi-pot size bet.
Accepting a coinflip situation with a smaller stack, thinking,"It wont jeopardize my survival"
etc


Itts already late level 4, almost level 5 now someltimes late 3 in the 30+3z

Well these were not knockout blows, but knockdown blows. So you say to yourself, "what the hell. This isnt going to work." and if I might add, some 2+2ers would also say, "My entire strategy is based on the premise of stealing. Now if I dont have a stack that can inflict damage, how can I steal with success"

So I get up and come out swinging.
Left, Right any which way, when you see a hand that has double or nothing potential.

And so it does happen.

So are these continuation bets bad. Should I stop making these stabs at the pot. Should I go into super tight mode. I doubt one can ever tell, without trying it differently.
I like my stats at the higher end of the spectrum, and if this tower at 6th, is what keeping them there, I'm pretty pleased about it. But what if its keeping me from improving that RoI. Iwish there were easy answers.


The only shocking thing for me was that its not like a graual hump around 5,6,7. Its just one of those monument vall;ey rocks, that stands out there. 6 is the number, not a lil 5 and a lil 7, but 6.

Maybe its just the statistical nature of our collective playing strategies.

A bond of brotherhood, if you may /images/graemlins/laugh.gif Ok that was overboard.

As for, if it is a leak: I dont know. I think it might be a positive thing. You waste as little time as possible. Take a swing. It works and you are in good stead to win by points. You miss and the right uppercut sends you crashing to the floor of the ring. 1,2,3,4..10 and the light fades out
"Double or Nething"

[SuitedSixes]

Generally speaking, a high number of 6th place finishes indicates that you are losing your first coin flip, or getting caught on your first steal.

This can be caused by bad luck, failure to recognize/understand FE opportunities, or getting involved in that first coin flip/steal too early (or small sample size).

[Blarg]

[ QUOTE ]
Kind of hate to respond cause it sounds like I'm coming off as one of the best, which I'm far from that, but.

I believe it is just the nature of the game. The blind structure, chip counts, etc., kind of dictates that on average, sometime in 40 hands or so (the first four levels at party) you will get a hand that you want to play. With the blinds being too low to push, you will make more standard raises that will get called more often by less experienced players, which by it's own nature will put you in a position to lose all your chips. That answers for when you have a real hand. Now add to that that the blinds are large enough to start trying position steals with junk, and you compound the issue. I think it's just the nature of the beast.

So a summary would be " You put your chips at risk more with the least folding equity at the 25/50, 50/100 level than at any other time with the possible exception of the bubble."

Is this a leak? Yea. Can you do anything about it? I don't know.
Later,
Rick

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your remarks are zeroed in on the problem well.

In games where at level 4 and 5 you still have 6 or 7 people, which I see happen a fair amount, the blinds are worth stealing, but poor players do not behave the way they do on more typical games around the bubble. That is, when there are 4 or 5 people left instead, even poor players tend to realize they should be careful, because they're close to the money.

Poor players basically want to play a lot of hands, and think they somehow own or deserve their blinds. They get peeved and want to "show YOU" when you try to steal blinds, even if they have garbage.

Even though the blinds are the same size, with more players still around, poor players revert to their natural state. Not defending with good cards or when the time is right and the risk is truly balanced with the reward -- defending with anything and everything and for emotional reasons. So both your outright steals and your legitimate good hands get called a lot more in levels 4, 5, and 6 when there are a lot of players still remaining.

Yet, it's time to start stealing blinds or playing your hands harder, or the blinds will eat you alive, and any chip lead you had will become more and more trivial as it becomes who's in the blind or has just one extra hand folded to him on the BB that's doing well or poorly, not the guy who won a hand or two earlier.

So you have to be active, and on a crowded table, your fold equity is very low even though the blinds and bets have become big enough that they should keep the smarter players in line. You'll get called by a lot of bad players often regardless of your stack size,, bet size, table image, your position, and the stack size and position and actual cards of the guys calling you.

A table that's somewhat crowded at these levels produces lots of times you'll bust out around 6th place, because poor players love to play their cards, and they aren't feeling pressured enough yet not to. The blinds don't give them a clue, stack sizes don't, nothing does...only seeing just a few players left does.

So you're going to be forced to steal at a time when there are plenty of people willing to call with garbage, and that will either make you a lot of money or bust you out. Your folding equity should rise in proportion to the size of the blinds, but it doesn't.

[flyby4553]

I have a similar problem in my (admittedly small) sample of $10+1 SNGs. I have finished in 5th about 17% of the time, 6th 13%. Roughly 1/3rd of my SNGs end in these two spots. My main thought is that these spots are where the bubble mentality (at least at the $11s) hasnt really kicked in, so people are more likely to call you. But at the same time the blinds are going up, so you are forced to play aggressively. Thus, you start to bust more. Survival plays a bigger role when you are down to 4 players, and so your aggression is much more sucessful at that point and you bust less.

[Ogre]

I have a lot of 5ths. It is because when there are only 5-6 players left the blinds are ususaly level 4 or 5 and you start pushing. When you get called it will make or break your tournament. If you win you will usually get 1st-3rd and if you lose you will get 5th/6th or be left crippled. I don't really have any problem with it, I really don't like busting out early.

[uphigh_downlow]

So are you suggesting that this is an indication of the preponderance of fish at the games I play?

Interesting observation. Didnt think about that.