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View Full Version : Is this a +EV play?


aK13
05-18-2005, 04:19 AM
2 people posting blinds + SB + BB...so I try to blind steal?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $1.5. CO posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (10 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 folds, Button folds.

Final Pot: 7.50 BB

toss
05-18-2005, 04:26 AM
This isn't a +EV play IMO. Your hand is just too weak. If it was only the posters and the blind I'd do it.

SoftcoreRevolt
05-18-2005, 04:26 AM
Not at all. It might be from MP2 with posters in MP3 and CO if you had KJ, but you really need some sort of a hand to back this up so far out of position against typical party players who are more than willing to call after posting.

I'm just shocked that the two people who called weren't from the blinds or posts.

One problem is it is never just the posters and the blind, there is always the button in between.

2+2 wannabe
05-18-2005, 04:30 AM
if the hand is a bit better (T9s) i'd give it a shot for sure

nickg1532
05-18-2005, 04:41 AM
OOP, I think your hand is kind of weak to try this. I may be wrong, though.

I do have a different but related question for anyone willing to answer. I remember seeing a thread about the EV of raising any two when you post in the CO and it is folded to you. Is this still correct to do when you have one or two posters ahead of you in MP because of the extra dead money?(I imagine it would be, but you are also less likely to pull off the steal with more posters so I'm not sure)

ArturiusX
05-18-2005, 05:06 AM
No way.

baronzeus
05-18-2005, 07:51 AM
You got lucky. Everyone missed everything while you hit top pair on the flop.

More often than not a fishy caller with Ax will call you down and you'll have to check the river.

cmwck
05-18-2005, 07:59 AM
[ QUOTE ]
You got lucky. Everyone missed everything while you hit top pair on the flop.

More often than not a fishy caller with Ax will call you down and you'll have to check the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the river is something like a 9, I think Hero should still be betting.

mlb3zr
05-18-2005, 08:25 AM
the thing is, everyone else sees all that dead money too. even if they're not thinking of it in terms of odds and all that, they still get the idea that there's already a lot of money in and they should take a chance to win in. so in my experience it doesn't usually work to steal with more than one poster.

bubbahotep
05-18-2005, 09:58 AM
I dont think so from your position (UTG+1). It worked out this time, but I would not say its +EV over time.

handsome
05-18-2005, 10:02 AM
LOL BLIND STEAL FROM BUTTON+5

davelin
05-18-2005, 10:04 AM
Nope