It's an old topic, but let's revive it. SIRIUS!!!

[Danimal]

As a business student, I am still learning the markets. I made some money off of Ford when it dropped to under 7. So I sold it and bought some Sirius. I'm young, and usually patiently turn my short term mistakes into long term investments. Which leads me to Sirius. I ignorantly invested in the hype around 6.50, it hit 9, but I didn't invest my retirement fund or a house mortgage so I'm okay. Sirius is new, has debt, but this industry attracts me. I am definately waiting for the Howard Stern hype. These networks keep adding channels, and are only getting more press with their stocks and there personalities. I'm guessing that these popular public radio hosts; Jim Rome, Dr. Drew and Adam Corrola (Loveline), Rush Limbau, Dr. Laura, can't wait until there contracts are up. With other personalities that could be jumping in if they haven't already; Dr. Phil, Dane Cook, Dave Chappell.

I know the Cable TV analogy is used a lot, but people have a lot of problems with the balance sheets. I think this industry can explode and I'm glad I got in cheaply.

Thoughts on this long term affects of this industy, and its future in January with Stern and years after.

[adios]

A cursory glance of the balance sheet seems to indicate that SIRI is ok financially. Expect a lot of fluctuations with this stock because you're most definitely investing in an uncertain earnings stream. A lot of analyst comments that I've heard on the boob toob are projecting an X size market (forget what X is) that will materialize in about 10 years if memory serves. Long time to wait for earnings to come in. Also I think some speculate that even if SIRI doesn't fulfill it's projections, it is a candidate for a buyout. I really don't know much about this market of this company, just passing along what I've heard.

[Dan Mezick]

SIRI is not a good play now that the day traders and hedgies have got a hold of it. It's a pure speculation with a bad chart. Check it carefully.

The spike to 9 and immediate drop to 5 (and below) should be ringing a little bell with you.

Avoid.

[Ray Zee]

a stock is only an interest in that company. the value of any company is only its assets and its income. income you can consider its future potential if you are good enough to gauge that.
after you put a dollar value on that company divide that by the number of shares out and you get the figure for about what the price of the stock should be if you were actually buying a piece of the company in real life.
with stocks people routinely pay far more than a company is worth to buy a piece of it. thats is why companies go public as they can get far more than a private sale from the stupid public. eventually everything gets valued at it true value.

[HDPM]

There has been some hilarious discussion of sirius and its stock on XM's opie and Anthony. They keep playing clips of stern going off about sirius vs. xm. It is pretty funny. Stern went off with some really stupid stuff on the day it was reported xm had over 70% of the market. It probably isn't the best way to analyze the stock, but it is funny.

[James Boston]

I'm concerned that acquiring the programming needed to lure people in will cost way too much. Combining that with a theoretical price ceiling on what people are willing to pay for radio tells me that they may not be able to afford what it will take to get subscriber levels where they need to be. To offset this, they will have to do one of two things: 1) raise subscriber fees 2) sell commercials. If the fees go up too much, subscription will go down. If they add too much advertising, people will grow tired of paying for something that is becoming more and more like broadcast radio. Stern is another story because he wants to be free of FCC retrictions. Most major radio personalities don't have this problem, and they will just follow the money. I don't think Sirius or XM is in a position to pay them enough (collectively) and still make money operating as they currently are.

[midas]

Here is the issue with SIRI - its tremdously overvalued now at 72X revenue compared to Enterprise Value (Market Cap + Debt - cash). Over the next 4-5 months there will probably be no real news that could impact this ridiculous valuation so the stock will move on trader activity. As the Stern move nears the subs will start to increase. Stern diehards (like me) will probably move early in November to avoid a shortage of product with the rest of the fans switching over in the next month. Some cheap Stern fans will hold out for a while but then switch when they realize there is nothing else. I expect the peak of the Stern new sub impact to hit around June of 2006. The only reason that I haven't bought my lifetime subscription is that I'm hoping to see a Walkman like unit similar to XM's. I'm predicting a few major changes for the Stern audience that will be great. In order to satisfy the audience in different time zones, Howard will have at least 2-3 time shifted broadcasts going on at once. Also, I'll bet these shows will continue all day through afternoon drive - this will be a huge blow to normal radio because Howard was never on in the afternoon drive slot.

Regarding ads, Howard has been downplaying the ad thing but there will be ads. National male targeted products (poker, beer, etc.) will be all over this show.

Trading tips - I think the Howard move is already in the valuation of SIRI but there may be some spikes in early 2006. If you think Howard is going to revolutionize radio - short XM and and the rest of the radio concentrated stocks (Clear Channel).

[meow_meow]

Putting money into SIRI isn't an investment, it's strictly a gamboool.
Even if they grow the top line by 100% a year for the next 2 years, they are still losing money in FY'06.

[That guy]

XMSR actually looks kind of interesting...

think about it this way... Right now, XMSR is making $9 per month per unit sold. If an average subsriber likes the device and keeps it 5 years and then dumps it, he will pay XM $109 per year for 5 years which = $544... Total costs associated with this subscriber drop as costs are allocated over more and more subscribers. Satellite is a very good medium for distributing content... the key is you have to continue to grow subscribers at a good clip or the model doesn't work.

I checked out the XM portable thing yesterday at Best Buy and it was reallllly cool. I am almost ready to replace my IPOD with it.

Looking over the content list for XM, one thing is clearly missing.... a poker radio station.

[That guy]

Right now, cable and satellite TV stocks are selling for 11x the present value of future subscriber fees.

There is clearly value if XMSR can significantly grow its subscriber base over time. But that is of course risky.

Bank of America is predicting positive +$700mm in annual free cash flow in 5 years so there is a business model here.

This stock is certainly not cheap... but I can envision upside if the company continues to exceed forecasts in terms of subscribers. They just announced an interesting strategy; give away 2 for 1 for fathers day and graduation... simultaneously, they hiked the monthly subscription price by 30%...

would you rather pay $13 per month or listen to lots of commercials?

The history of great growth stocks is that they continue to surprise on the upside. If they do, this stock is going up... if they don't this stock is way overvalued... you cannot say if this stock is a LONG or a SHORT without making a big prediction on future subscriber adds... it is that simple.

lately, this company has modestly exceeded subscriber projections. it got hit in April because of the problems at its partner (General Motors installs these things in lots of cars)... The stock will languish if they only slightly exceed subscriber forecasts. It will go up if subscriber forecasts are consistently exceeded.

stay tuned

[Danimal]

I just saw a sirius portable at Circuit City. But I think it is a plug and play...not sure if it is portable.

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
Putting money into SIRI isn't an investment, it's strictly a gamboool.
Even if they grow the top line by 100% a year for the next 2 years, they are still losing money in FY'06.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ding, Ding. That's the right answer. It's probably a bad gamble also. If you get above water at any point I would sell and consider myself lucky.

[gvibes]

I don't know anything about Sirius, but a good business plan doesn't make a company a growing market a good investment.

[inishowen]

[ QUOTE ]
a stock is only an interest in that company. the value of any company is only its assets and its income. income you can consider its future potential if you are good enough to gauge that.
after you put a dollar value on that company divide that by the number of shares out and you get the figure for about what the price of the stock should be if you were actually buying a piece of the company in real life.
with stocks people routinely pay far more than a company is worth to buy a piece of it. thats is why companies go public as they can get far more than a private sale from the stupid public. eventually everything gets valued at it true value.

[/ QUOTE ]


This is spot on for Sirius. At its current price it's valued at over $7 Billion, absolutely ludicrous. I'd sell it.

[michiganfan9]

I agree sirius will fluctuate a lot but in the long term i think it still will be fine. It wont' post numbers like it did last year but the business is good and will see itself back up there in a few years and eventually exceed its 04year

[michiganfan9]

what's its book value?

[chromakey]

Haven't read all the replies but here are my thoughts:

XM and Sirius can't co-exist together. There must be a merger or one of them must die. I've read several article in the Wash Post and WSJ that each of these satellite providers needs an estimated 43 million subscribers to be profitable. Sirius just celebrated hitting one mil. Common sense analysis would dictate that 1 in 7 Americans is not going to want to pay for radio, nevermind splitting the market between two companies. If XM and Sirius merge, they might have a future. Otherwise, forget it. If you want to speculate short term, I can't help you there.

[Danimal]

How long do you think the Howard Stern hype will affect the stock at the end of the year? I'm holding on to mine until then.

[michiganfan9]

I agree, i think sirius hit its peak last year and will take a huge merger or miracle in order for it to continue to go up.

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]


Bank of America is predicting positive +$700mm in annual free cash flow in 5 years so there is a business model here.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a business model because some snot nosed analyst at BOA says so? Well since analysts never fail when they predict future markets, revenues and profits, I guess I should take this to the bank!

I love my Sirius radio but it's business has all the glitz, glamour and real value of the leading Internet stocks in 1999.