Set vs. Overpair (?), and an Ace on the turn

[MLerra]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+1 ($199.75)
MP1 ($87.9)
Hero ($141)
MP3 ($99.35)
CO ($20)
Button ($122.35)
SB ($103.5)
BB ($150.65)
UTG ($101.27)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $1. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB (poster) raises to $5.5</font>, BB calls $5, Hero calls $5, CO folds.

Flop: ($19) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $15</font>, BB folds, Hero calls $15.

Turn: ($49) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $30</font>, SB folds.

Final Pot: $79

Despite his name, I have 395 hands against this guy and he is 12VPIP/4.3 PFR... VERY similar stats to my current $100NL play. He is a -$200 player overall, who has lost $100 on two occasions with AA... once to a flopped set, and once to a rivered set with all the money in the pot. He seems decent.

In hindsight, my bet on the turn was idiotic. I thought he might have AA, in which case I lose a lot of money for no reason. I don't see him bluffing in EP with AK or AQ... which would be the only way my turn bet could be considered reasonable.

In hindsight, I put him on JJ-KK. He (or I) would raise that in EP preflop, and would lead out on a safe flop like that. And, I might fold to that turn A and subsequent bet.

Think if I checked the turn, or bet it VERY small (say $5), I might be able to get some money out of him leading the river? I know this is a somewhat trivial hand, where a lot of money is not going to change hands no matter what we do... but even winning an extra $10 on a hand like this (and others like it) will have a big effect on overall winrate in the long run.

[the 9]

Yes, this is the opposite of the other SC hand I replied to, you want to make it look like you're drawing here so I would agree with you and bet less on the turn, maybe 15 if he's quite tight - whatever you think he would could call with JJ-KK.
If he has AK would he c/r the turn or lead at it? If he is likely to raise a weak bet then I like 20-25 better.
I might have raised flop in this hand as well, depends on how opponent plays overpairs - if you can stack him with AA then you must raise it, isn't that what your read was?

[Russ McGinley]

I would raise this flop. If you think he has an overpair, he is going to call your raise on the flop. If he has an overpair, an overcard to his pair is going to scare him off. Another spade may also scare him off. If you raise, he is most likely going to put you on a flush draw or an 8. This might be one of those spots to put in a min-raise to confuse an opponent who you feel is a solid player. He may interpret your raise as a weak raise trying to buy a free river and he'll pop you back with his KK or whatever.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
I have 395 hands against this guy and he is 12VPIP/4.3 PFR... VERY similar stats to my current $100NL play.

[/ QUOTE ] He's tight passive preflop (too tight, too passive, if you want feedback on these numbers, by the way). So he probably has a big pair here.

[ QUOTE ]
He is a -$200 player overall, who has lost $100 on two occasions with AA... once to a flopped set

[/ QUOTE ]
How did that hand go? He clearly does not easily get away from an overpair. So I think you have to raise the flop so that a spade can't come and kill your action (or an ace).

[fimbulwinter]

you desperately need to raise this flop.

fim

[bkholdem]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have 395 hands against this guy and he is 12VPIP/4.3 PFR... VERY similar stats to my current $100NL play.

[/ QUOTE ] He's tight passive preflop (too tight, too passive, if you want feedback on these numbers, by the way). So he probably has a big pair here.

[ QUOTE ]
He is a -$200 player overall, who has lost $100 on two occasions with AA... once to a flopped set

[/ QUOTE ]
How did that hand go? He clearly does not easily get away from an overpair. So I think you have to raise the flop so that a spade can't come and kill your action (or an ace).

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm understanding the stats wrong, but doesn't 12VPIP/4.3 PFR mean that he raises over 1/3 of the hands he plays?

So in comparison a 20VPIP/5.5 PFR plays more hands but, raises less frequently (as a percentage of the hands he does play). Do I have this wrong?

I think the a key factor, as another poster pointed out, is how he plays big pairs OOP and AK type hands.

If he has QQ your best chance of getting his money is on the flop I think. Then again if he will not commit much on a TPTK hand or an overpair when facing a raise your in a tough spot (with respect to getting the cash). If you raise the flop he might call with AK or he might bail right there. If you raise the flop and he has QQ will he push, re-raise, or flat call? If he just calls is he going to bail if he doesn't hit a set on the turn?

I think it's tough to extract money from this player (for all I know it was me...I'm at work I'll have to check when I get home, this hand seems familiar lol)

Maybe a raise on the flop and check the turn through, inducing a river bet or at least a call (putting doubt in his mind re: missed draw or whatever)

[TheWorstPlayer]

That's correct interpretation of the stats and that type of analysis is very meaningful for something like post flop aggression, but for preflop raising, it is totally meaningless. The question is "Which hands does he raise with preflop?" someone who raises only 2% of the time only raises AA/KK no matter what their VPIP is.

[bkholdem]

The reason that I made that particular observation was because those stats are in line with mine at present. I noticed that you called the player passive preflop. He is certainly tight preflop, as am I, but what did you mean when you said he was passive preflop? Maybe I'm not understanding what you were trying to communicate there, but how is someone who raises over 30% of the hands they play passive? How do you characterize an agressive preflop player? (seperate from tightness and looseness)

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason that I made that particular observation was because those stats are in line with mine at present. I noticed that you called the player passive preflop. He is certainly tight preflop, as am I, but what did you mean when you said he was passive preflop? Maybe I'm not understanding what you were trying to communicate there, but how is someone who raises over 30% of the hands they play passive? How do you characterize an agressive preflop player? (seperate from tightness and looseness)

[/ QUOTE ]
He is tight because he folds a lot of hands preflop. He is passive because he does not raise a lot preflop. Even though he raises a large percentage OF THE HANDS THAT HE PLAYS, since he plays so few hands, he is still not raising a lot of hands. For example, I play 6m and my numbers are something like 22/10. That basically means that I play the top 18% of hands plus another bunch due to position/game conditions (suited connectors, blind steals, etc.) It also means I raise the top 8% or so plus another bunch due to game conditions (suited connectors, blinds steals, etc.) Because I raise 10% of hands, there is a fairly wide range of hands that I am raising. So opponents don't know whether this is one of the times I'm raising suited connectors, or a low pocket pair, or if I have AA. But if someone only raises 4% of hands, that means they just aren't raising a lot of hands. Therefore, they are passive preflop. If you had a player whose stats were 10/2 they would be tight, but also passive. If they were aggressive, their numbers would be more like 10/8. Just because they don't limp the hands that make up the difference between their 10 and my 22 VPIP doesn't mean that they aren't passive for not raising the hands that make up the difference between their 2 and my 10 PFR%. Basically, they are looking at 99 and saying "maybe I'll limp or maybe I'll fold." That is passive. They should be raising it.

[bkholdem]

I hear what you are saying but this does not make sense to me. Please characterize the following stats as agressive or passive.

12% vp$p raise 4.5% passive
20% vp$p raise 10% agressive
60% vp$p raise 10% ???
60% vp$p raise 14% ???
40% vp$p raise 9% ???
75% vp$p raise 10% ???
80$ vp$p raise 12% ???
100% vp$p raise 12% ???

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
I hear what you are saying but this does not make sense to me. Please characterize the following stats as agressive or passive.

12% vp$p raise 4.5% passive
20% vp$p raise 10% agressive
60% vp$p raise 10% ???
60% vp$p raise 14% ???
40% vp$p raise 9% ???
75% vp$p raise 10% ???
80$ vp$p raise 12% ???
100% vp$p raise 12% ???

[/ QUOTE ]
Depends on the game. But for the games I play (6m exclusively) I would say that aggressive is PFR&gt;10 and passive is PFR&lt;8. The VPIP simply does not affect it. The only question for his preflop aggression is which hands does he raise. I don't care which additional hands he limps with, which is what VPIP tells you.

[bkholdem]

Hey dude, before you dig an even deeper hole for yourself, here is the defenition for you lol :

Aggressive
Adjective to describe a player who raises and re-raises and rarely calls.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey dude, before you dig an even deeper hole for yourself, here is the defenition for you lol :

Aggressive
Adjective to describe a player who raises and re-raises and rarely calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
Someone who is 10/5 DOES call often - for the hands he plays. He is only playing the top 10% of hands, and yet he raises ONLY half the time. If he were aggressive, he would be raising 80% of the hands that he plays.

[bkholdem]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hey dude, before you dig an even deeper hole for yourself, here is the defenition for you lol :

Aggressive
Adjective to describe a player who raises and re-raises and rarely calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
Someone who is 10/5 DOES call often - for the hands he plays. He is only playing the top 10% of hands, and yet he raises ONLY half the time. If he were aggressive, he would be raising 80% of the hands that he plays.

[/ QUOTE ]


You seem to be taking out both sides of your mouth. This is what you said earlier:

Depends on the game. But for the games I play (6m exclusively) I would say that aggressive is PFR&gt;10 and passive is PFR&lt;8. The VPIP simply does not affect it. The only question for his preflop aggression is which hands does he raise. I don't care which additional hands he limps with, which is what VPIP tells you.

You claimed there that vp$p IS NOT A FACTOR in determining whether or not a player is passive or agressive. This is simply NOT TRUE. Agressiveness is directly correlated between the % of hands raised and reraised vs. the % of hands called with preflop.

So on one hand you claim that vp$p IS NOT A FACTOR in determining preflop agressivenes and on the other hand you assert that it is. It CAN NOT BE BOTH. Either it is a factor or it is not. I assert that it is.

I don't care how many posts that you have made or how long you have been here. The accuracy of information is what counts. People arguing points and not being able to admit when they are wrong is what makes me want to avoid the low stakes forum. If you can't get this straight you will be the first to enter my kill file. I come to this forum to improve my poker skills. I do not need to be exposed to people who talk out of both sides of their mouth because they can not admit they made a mistake or do not have a full understanding of an issue.


Remember this post that you made earlier?

He is tight because he folds a lot of hands preflop. He is passive because he does not raise a lot preflop. Even though he raises a large percentage OF THE HANDS THAT HE PLAYS, since he plays so few hands, he is still not raising a lot of hands. For example, I play 6m and my numbers are something like 22/10. That basically means that I play the top 18% of hands plus another bunch due to position/game conditions (suited connectors, blind steals, etc.) It also means I raise the top 8% or so plus another bunch due to game conditions (suited connectors, blinds steals, etc.) Because I raise 10% of hands, there is a fairly wide range of hands that I am raising. So opponents don't know whether this is one of the times I'm raising suited connectors, or a low pocket pair, or if I have AA. But if someone only raises 4% of hands, that means they just aren't raising a lot of hands. Therefore, they are passive preflop. If you had a player whose stats were 10/2 they would be tight, but also passive. If they were aggressive, their numbers would be more like 10/8. Just because they don't limp the hands that make up the difference between their 10 and my 22 VPIP doesn't mean that they aren't passive for not raising the hands that make up the difference between their 2 and my 10 PFR%. Basically, they are looking at 99 and saying "maybe I'll limp or maybe I'll fold." That is passive. They should be raising it.


There you state that your 22/10 and you are agressive.

You also argue that someone who is 10/5 isn't agressive because they call with 1/2 the hands they play..."if he were raising with 80% he would be agressive" Dude your stats have you raising even less than the 10/5 player.

You are weaking your image by continuing on with this. You made a mistake and then compounded that mistake rather than correcting it. If this was a poker game rather than a chat board you would be playing this hand like a fish....

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hey dude, before you dig an even deeper hole for yourself, here is the defenition for you lol :

Aggressive
Adjective to describe a player who raises and re-raises and rarely calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
Someone who is 10/5 DOES call often - for the hands he plays. He is only playing the top 10% of hands, and yet he raises ONLY half the time. If he were aggressive, he would be raising 80% of the hands that he plays.

[/ QUOTE ]


You seem to be taking out both sides of your mouth. This is what you said earlier:

Depends on the game. But for the games I play (6m exclusively) I would say that aggressive is PFR&gt;10 and passive is PFR&lt;8. The VPIP simply does not affect it. The only question for his preflop aggression is which hands does he raise. I don't care which additional hands he limps with, which is what VPIP tells you.

You claimed there that vp$p IS NOT A FACTOR in determining whether or not a player is passive or agressive. This is simply NOT TRUE. Agressiveness is directly correlated between the % of hands raised and reraised vs. the % of hands called with preflop.

So on one hand you claim that vp$p IS NOT A FACTOR in determining preflop agressivenes and on the other hand you assert that it is. It CAN NOT BE BOTH. Either it is a factor or it is not. I assert that it is.

I don't care how many posts that you have made or how long you have been here. The accuracy of information is what counts. People arguing points and not being able to admit when they are wrong is what makes me want to avoid the low stakes forum. If you can't get this straight you will be the first to enter my kill file. I come to this forum to improve my poker skills. I do not need to be exposed to people who talk out of both sides of their mouth because they can not admit they made a mistake or do not have a full understanding of an issue.

[/ QUOTE ]
Very cute. In any case, I maintain that VPIP is not at all connected to aggressiveness preflop and am fairly certain that I have never said that it is. Aggressiveness preflop simply is a description of how he deals with each hand. If he is aggressive, he raises a lot of hands. If he is passive, he doesn't. Someone who only raises 5% of all possible hands simply does not raise a lot of hands. Therefore he is passive. Aggressiveness is not some raise/limp ratio preflop. Postflop, it IS a raise/call ratio (which is why it can easily be skewed by fit or fold tactics) but preflop it is not.