Top two whit lot of action

[happyjaypee]

1/2 Live NLHE game in a NewYork Club. I'm on vacation there so no one know me. I bought-in for 200$ and double early whit a set of 7's vs AK on KQ7A. Been playing for over an hour.

UTG: Seems the best player at this table. He is sitting on a 700$+ stack and covers the table. Has been tricky at the right time in a couple of pots so far (In witch I was'nt)
MP: OK player, Has'nt show any tricky moves so far. As about 350$.
ME: I'm in CO-1 whit 475$

UTG limp, folded to MP who makes it 12$ to go. Folded to me in the CO and I look down at K/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ/images/graemlins/spade.gif I decided to play. Folded to BB who call. UTG call.

Pot 49$
Flop: K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB check, UTG check, MP (PF raiser) bet 50$.

I tought MP had hit a piece of the flop but did'nt really wanted a call because of Str8 abd flush possible draws. Probably an AK or AA here. So I think I'm ahead. I'm not trilled about those draws too because a call on my part will fatten the pot and may get pottential draw to play. I decided to raise. Thoughts?

I make it 150$, BB folds but UTG push is stack in. MP thought about it for a while and folded.

Ok, so now it's 313$ to me for 712$ in the middle. Call or fold?

[Deftoner]

I call. I think he is on the draw.

[Popinjay]

With those pot odds I think it's an easy call considering he could have a lot of things that you beat or a hand that you could still be drawing on.

[creedofhubris]

Do you win this pot more than 1/3 of the time? Yes, so call.

His only realistic hand that is way ahead is 33, and there are plenty of other possibilities that you are ahead of. (AA being one of the most logical; combo straight and flush draws are a little ahead of you, but not that much.)

[flawless_victory]

easy call.

[Poker879]

Ummm, the combo straight and flush draw is NOT ahead of u. The best straight and flush combo would be 10Jd, which is only 48.2% to win, NOT a favorite. If he's a good player, what would he limp with in early position and then call a raise and then push like that on the flop? His hands are probably a set of 3s or 10Jd, or KQ (but probably not, because u have 2 of those cards)... if he's a good player. I'd say you're in a tough spot here, but your hand is good enough and the pot odds are good enough to still put in a call... However if he has 10Jd, u're about 50/50, KQ obvioulsy 50/50, but a set of 3s you're a only 17% to win. I started out this post saying easy call, but now i'm leaning towards fold. I'd almost say flip a coin. Heads call, tails fold.

[Rootabager]

I think your crushed by a set of 3's. The only big draw is something like J-10 of diamonds.

[happyjaypee]

Popin Jay:
[ QUOTE ]
With those pot odds I think it's an easy call considering he could have a lot of things that you beat or a hand that you could still be drawing on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like what? I really don't see him limping and calling the raise whit K3 or Q3. Playing AK this way is also unlikely considering there was a pot bet and a big raise. Putting all your $ in the middle whit one pair against two players who have showed strenght is burning money. People limp AA UTG hoping they get a chance to reraise. He got the chance and did'nt do it. So what's left here that match is play that I beat?


creedofhubris:
[ QUOTE ]
there are plenty of other possibilities that you are ahead of. (AA being one of the most logical; combo straight and flush draws are a little ahead of you, but not that much.)

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that something like J/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif or A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/diamond.gif are possible. Put I can't see him having AA here for the reason stated above.

On the other hand, KK and QQ are unlikely too. I think he would have raise 1st in whit Queens and would mix it up whit KK between raising 1st in or limp-raising it, but not limp-calling.

I think the hands that fit in the "Limp callin PF, check-reraising the flop" are: 33, KQ or one of the Str8&flush combo draw. Also, MP will have folded a K here a good porion of the time, making is KQ less likely and killing one of my outs vs 33.

Considering this I'm often way behind 33, sometimes spliting the pot whit KQ and sometimes a small favorit to a monster draw.

What do you think?

Also:
Anyone folding KQs to a 6xBB pre-flop raise whit people yet to act?
Anyone plays the flop differently?


-Happy /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[creedofhubris]

You are right, top two is slightly ahead of J/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and around 60-40 vs the other big combo draws. I was just guesstimating and I guess I was off a few percent.

[DaveduFresne]

Its a live game so I say call. Online I might consider folding top two given the action.

If I knew mp well and knew him to a rock I would fold. But otherwise like I said, live games tend to be looser and top two is a pretty big hand.

I wouldnt be surprised to see a set of threes turned over, but there could be a lot of other hands he's playing this aggressively. You also have some outs against the threes.
You also have a fair amount your stack in.

Without a strong read, I would say folding is a mistake here.

David

[happyjaypee]

After about 2 min of thinking it trought, I mucked and said: "Nice set of three's".

He looked surprised, toke is card and turn then face up...

He had 3/images/graemlins/club.gif3/images/graemlins/heart.gif

I'm happy whit the fold but I got in trouble whit a hand I propably should have folded preflop in the spot I was in (1st caller of the raise whit 3 players plus the blinds to speek, I was 3 off the buton, not 2 like I said in my original post, my bad.) You guys fold K/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ/images/graemlins/spade.gif here preflop?

Also, a friend of mine argued that a smaller raise would have accomplished the same thing on the flop, say making it 120$ or 125$ would have saved me a little here when behind and got me the pot anyway when ahead.


-Happy /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Kirkrrr]

A coin-flip when you're getting 3:1 on your call is not a hard choice.

I'd put him on AA or AK. It's a very scary board for the over-pair/top-pair, and he's willing to take down the pot right now. QQ are a possibility too, btw, but doubtful considering there's two already accounted for.

You pretty much hit one of the best flops you could -reasonably- hope for with the hand you have. If you can't call, why play the hand in the first place?

Just my opinion, FWIW.

Kirk R.

[Kirkrrr]

Great read.

I still call and rebuy /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Kirk R.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Great read.

I still call and rebuy /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Kirk R.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why would you do that when you can call and suckout?

[psuasskicker]

I think his only possible hands here are 33 or a huge draw, probably J/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. From there it comes down to your read.

This, FWIW, is why you should always pay attention to your opponents outside your hands. Watching the way he does what he does will give you clues as to the strength of his hand.

Very simple math, you're either way behind, or he's drawing big. I put that basically as you losing three times out of four (lose when you're behind, he wins half when you're ahead). I have to have a VERY strong read he's on a draw to make that call.

I also liked the raise to $150. A min raise would have been weak.

- C -