Guess the winrate

[mmbt0ne]

We haven't had one of these in a while.

I managed to find 3 LAGs with stats over 80/20 in my short session this morning/afternoon. I had position on 2 of them at one table, and had kinda position on the other until 3 TAGs filled in my right hand side, and I left. All of this was at 1/2 tables (7 of the hands were at a 6max table HU, but he left quick).

So, whoever guesses the winrate to the nearest half number (ie 3.5, 21.0, -5.0, etc) gets $10 from me in their PokerStars account. No PS, either sign up or don't guess. Enjoy!

Hands: 217
VP$IP: 20.74
PFR: 13.36
WTSD: 35.48
W$ASD: 50.00

[toss]

I'm going to take a guess and say 67.5ish

[adsman]

50.0

[bottomset]

-12.5 variance is a bitch

[Firefly]

22.5

[MrWookie47]

I'll enter in for 42.

[mmbt0ne]

It amazes me that 41 people have viewed this and there are only 5 responses. I guess 36 people don't like free money.

[kapw7]

-5.5

[milesdyson]

-7.5

[kiddj]

110.5BB/100

[toss]

I swear these lurkers will be the end of us all!

[gharp]

0

[shadow29]

0.000

[shadow29]

[ QUOTE ]
0

[/ QUOTE ]

dammit. too quick for me.

0.01 is my new guess

edit- if we can tie, then my guess remains at 0.

[pokerrookie]

0.0

Better make that -0.5 - too many already chose 0, and I don't want to split.

[moose47]

-20.0

[deception5]

45BB/100

[reubenf]

68 BB/100

[VBM]

12.5

[btspider]

6.5

[tkmoore]

55BB/100

[CourtJester]

11

[Weatherhead03]

2.3 is my guess

[Bradyams]

-6

[ClaytonN]

-35

[numeri]

32.5

[ononimo]

156.5

[ClaytonN]

Most of you guys are guessing far too high in the positive

FFS, his WASD is 50!

[matt42s]

42

[tallboy]

38

[Duerig]

69

[droolie]

10.75BB/100

[mmbt0ne]

Right now, one person is pretty close. I'm gonna eat some dinner and think about how bad golf went, and then come back to this thread and announce results.

Would it be nittish of me to only give $5 to the person since it's not exactly right? Remember, before you respond, there is a very small likelihood that you are that person, so think about this rationally, not like you are expecting $5 more.

[Ianco15]

-14.5

[ClaytonN]

Do you just want to give me the money now, or later?

[reubenf]

[ QUOTE ]
Would it be nittish of me to only give $5 to the person since it's not exactly right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not at all. Though it makes the negative winrates seem more likely /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Duerig]

This is totally off topic, but I've heard that PS sucks for low limit ring games. Why do you play there? I have heard that their tournament structure is good.

[Piiop]

1

[mmbt0ne]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
This is totally off topic, but I've heard that PS sucks for low limit ring games. Why do you play there? I have heard that their tournament structure is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really play at stars that much. I only said that because they let you transfer small amounts.

Anyway, the final winrate was an astounding -19.01 BB/100 so if moose47 will let me know his Stars name he will be $5 richer.

There's really nothing else I could do, but here are a couple of hands to remind you that variance blows:

After this hand...

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif. CO posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, CO (poster) checks, Button (LAG1) calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB (LAG2) raises</font>, Hero calls, CO calls, Button (LAG1) calls.

Bad call? Maybe. A raise would've been nice

Flop: (8 SB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">LAG2 bets</font>, Hero folds, CO folds, LAG1 calls.

Turn: (5 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">LAG2 bets</font>, LAG1 calls.

River: (7 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">LAG2 bets</font>, LAG1 calls.

Final Pot: 9 BB

LAG2 - Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
LAG1 - K/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/club.gif


How could I play this hand any differently?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG (LAG1) calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 (LAG2) raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, UTG (LAG1) calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 (LAG2) caps</font>, Hero calls, UTG /images/graemlins/frown.gifLAG1) calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
LAG1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">LAG2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, LAG1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">LAG2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, LAG1 calls, LAG2 calls.

Turn: (12.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
LAG1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">LAG2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, LAG1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">LAG2 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, LAG1 calls.

River: (21.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
LAG1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">LAG2 bets</font>, Hero calls, LAG1 calls.

Final Pot: 24.75 BB

LAG1 - A/images/graemlins/heart.gif3/images/graemlins/heart.gif
LAG2 - A/images/graemlins/club.gif2/images/graemlins/club.gif

That bastard LAG1 left after this hand too. Right after running his stack up from $12 to $130 in one rotation.

[bottomset]

boo to the ppl that picked bigger negative WR than me