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durron597
05-17-2005, 02:09 PM
Gigabet posted this hand in the STT forum because it's relevant to some discussion that was on that forum recently, but I really would like to hear the opinions on this hand from the top players who frequent this forum (especially MLG & Gavin).

The hand (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=2415418 &page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=all)

bugstud
05-17-2005, 02:30 PM
I would have to be very confident that my opp can laydown a hand here. Otherwise it's damn impressive bubble play at its finest.

Chief911
05-17-2005, 02:33 PM
Either he read his opponent has sickly weak tight with AK, or the AK part is BS.

Nick

Tyler Durden
05-17-2005, 02:34 PM
yes but what if it hadn't worked, he'd get flamed pretty hard no? at first glance i don't like it but i'm willing to see why it's a good play

Che
05-17-2005, 02:44 PM
Great thread including a few excellent posts (and not all are by Gigabet).

Thanks for the link,
Che

schwza
05-17-2005, 02:44 PM
[ QUOTE ]
yes but what if it hadn't worked, he'd never have posted it

[/ QUOTE ]

fyp

durron597
05-17-2005, 02:48 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Great thread including a few excellent posts (and not all are by Gigabet).

Thanks for the link,
Che

[/ QUOTE ]

It occurred to me that I shouldn't have said "especially so-and-so" when I posted the OP - there are many excellent players who frequent this forum (including everyone who's posted in this thread so far) that I'd love to hear the opinion of.

mts
05-17-2005, 02:48 PM
his opponent should have asked him if he plays on the internet

DonT77
05-17-2005, 02:59 PM
JMO - but you aren't getting that many people to lay down AK here. Your all-in bet represents a better hand which is highly improbable (AQ, QQ?). You can probably get somebody to lay down another PP though, so I'm guessing the AK thing was a joke. The only time somebody folds AK here is if this is a satellite where 1-18 pays the same.

I think you might be able to get the same results by checking the turn and then making a much smaller bet on the river - a bet that looks like it wants a call. Anybody have comments on using this line instead?

MLG
05-17-2005, 03:04 PM
The AK was certainly not a joke. Couch the hand in different terms. You are the second biggest stack at the table on the bubble, all of a sudden you find yourself with a very good but not great hand facing the only stack at the table that can bust you and that stack has made a very suspicious looking turn bet that seems to be half testing you/half milking you. You just call, and then he pushes the river. Thing is you can fold and still have a healthy stack compared to the table, or you can risk going broke here. There are certainly players who will make a big fold here (especially if gigabet had not been playing aggresively to this point).

durron597
05-17-2005, 03:05 PM
[ QUOTE ]
JMO - but you aren't getting that many people to lay down AK here. Your all-in bet represents a better hand which is highly improbable (AQ, QQ?). You can probably get somebody to lay down another PP though, so I'm guessing the AK thing was a joke. The only time somebody folds AK here is if this is a satellite where 1-18 pays the same.

I think you might be able to get the same results by checking the turn and then making a much smaller bet on the river - a bet that looks like it wants a call. Anybody have comments on using this line instead?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you kidding me?

1) If you check the turn, you are going to have to face a bet from UTG before you see the river.
2) Even if you don't see a bet, no one will lay down even a hand like a non-boat Ax here for a cheap price on the river.

DonT77
05-17-2005, 03:14 PM
Why would UTG call the turn and then fold the river? Those are the kind of reverse implied odds that milk chips off your stack - no?

Put yourself in UTGs shoes w/AK - how would you play this hand ATF? How would you play this hand ATT? I don't see how all of my chips are not going in the middle in this situation - but I'm no expert, so that's why I'm here. I'm also not afraid to bust out on the bubble and go for a bigger payday - but maybe Gigabet read his opponent as the type who just wanted to survive into the money.

DireWolf
05-17-2005, 03:19 PM
Its not even that so much. Put Gigabet on a range of hands from villans POV, Taking into acount that villan is pretty sure Gigabet knows Villan has an ace. Especially if Gigabet has been crafting an image for this play.

adanthar
05-17-2005, 03:22 PM
If I was the AK, I would play it exactly the same, except I call the river and then do the riverdance on top of the table.

But I'm not the guy whose range on a 6 handed bubble can be narrowed down to (I am guessing) a whopping 7 hands.

DireWolf
05-17-2005, 03:25 PM
[ QUOTE ]

But I'm not the guy whose range on a 6 handed bubble can be narrowed down to (I am guessing) a whopping 7 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think thats the most important point, against you or MLagG or someone like that, you call in an instant. If Gigabet had been playing tight, it changes things a lot.

gumpzilla
05-17-2005, 03:25 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Its not even that so much. Put Gigabet on a range of hands from villans POV, Taking into acount that villan is pretty sure Gigabet knows Villan has an ace. Especially if Gigabet has been crafting an image for this play.

[/ QUOTE ]

This assumes of course that villain does have an ace.

If the villain does have AK, I think calling the turn if he's going to fold to a river push is a pretty bad play. What do others think about this?

DonT77
05-17-2005, 03:26 PM
I'm sure you know Gigabet a lot better than I do, so you'll know better if his AK comment was a joke or not - so let's assume he actually had his opponent on AK.

AK AA is a great hand IMO, not just a good hand. The range of holdings in the BB could be quite wide - I could be up against Ax (most of which I'm ahead against), or I could be up against another PP who thinks that with AA on board there is no way this guy has an ace. I could also be up against a guy making a bubble play on me.

I'm not saying that this was a terrible play and I'm not saying that there aren't people who would lay down AK here - but I do think the circumstances have to be just right to run this play (your table image, your perception of your opponent, etc.) if your opponent does indeed have AK.

gumpzilla
05-17-2005, 03:27 PM
[ QUOTE ]

But I'm not the guy whose range on a 6 handed bubble can be narrowed down to (I am guessing) a whopping 7 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Giga was obviously confident this guy would lay down a hand. But I don't see where we can assume that this guy's opening hand selection will be as narrow as you're assuming it is. Certainly you can tighten up and get sensible postflop even if you're opening fairly loosely.

adanthar
05-17-2005, 03:30 PM
The only reason I'm assuming he could have been put on 7 hands is Giga's original comment that he thought he had AK.

For him to say that, and for this guy to play this way, his range to start with has got to be ultra narrow and he has got to be really weak/tight.

DireWolf
05-17-2005, 03:31 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Its not even that so much. Put Gigabet on a range of hands from villans POV, Taking into acount that villan is pretty sure Gigabet knows Villan has an ace. Especially if Gigabet has been crafting an image for this play.

[/ QUOTE ]

This assumes of course that villain does have an ace.




[/ QUOTE ]

what other hands would he have? doesn't Gigabets play up until the river look at worst like a weak ace?

durron597
05-17-2005, 03:32 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Its not even that so much. Put Gigabet on a range of hands from villans POV, Taking into acount that villan is pretty sure Gigabet knows Villan has an ace. Especially if Gigabet has been crafting an image for this play.

[/ QUOTE ]

This assumes of course that villain does have an ace.

If the villain does have AK, I think calling the turn if he's going to fold to a river push is a pretty bad play. What do others think about this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Remember Gigabet said that his opponent looked confused by the small turn bet and that he wasn't quite sure what to do about it. I guess in the back of his mind he was thinking that he would call small bet/check the river, and on the river decided that busting with a large stack wasn't worth it.

gumpzilla
05-17-2005, 03:35 PM
[ QUOTE ]

what other hands would he have? doesn't Gigabets play up until the river look at worst like a weak ace?

[/ QUOTE ]

Would a weak ace play into another ace that way? Probably not. So if villain thinks that's what Giga is on, then he probably shouldn't think that Giga thinks that he himself is holding an ace.

I agree that the line does start out looking just like a weak ace, and Giga even says that that was his goal. I think the turn bet looks just like how a weak ace would play BECAUSE the second ace coming makes it look pretty improbable that there's a better ace out there. For the same reason, I could also see KK calling Giga's small turn bet, because it looks like a weak probe that says "Aha, with that second ace coming, it looks to me like you don't have an ace. Fold now." It can also look like a milking bet from a huge hand, so it's a tough position to be in.

durron597
05-17-2005, 03:36 PM
[ QUOTE ]
For him to say that, and for this guy to play this way, his range to start with has got to be ultra narrow and he has got to be really weak/tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't have to be "weak/tight" to be capable of a big laydown. There are times when AA goes up against KK preflop and the KK guy knows his opponent well enough (or thinks he does) to make the fold instead of busting 80% of the time.

I don't think he put Gigabet on one of those 7 hands until the river. Basically I think Villian thought "he knows I have an ace. Yet he still pushes the river. Are my three aces really good here? He's a solid player and called my PFR".

gumpzilla
05-17-2005, 03:38 PM
You're misunderstanding. What adanthar means is that if Giga specifically says he's on AK, then Giga must be assuming a very tight range of opening hands from the initial raiser, because otherwise you'd have to include AT, AJ and the like.

durron597
05-17-2005, 03:53 PM
[ QUOTE ]
You're misunderstanding. What adanthar means is that if Giga specifically says he's on AK, then Giga must be assuming a very tight range of opening hands from the initial raiser, because otherwise you'd have to include AT, AJ and the like.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah ha. Whoops. Well also note that Gigabet said "I thought he had AK" not "I was 100% sure he had AK". And if this is the sort of player who would fold AJo UTG 6-handed that's probably why he thought he could pull this on this particular player.

2005
05-17-2005, 04:03 PM
Let me start off by saying this: I will never have a chance to make this play. I prefer to win small pots on the bubble with steals and re-steals b/c that fits my image more readily. I trust that Gigabet is confident in his read of this player and that he will lay down. I respect Giga's game and I'm pretty sure that if he makes this play he knows with pretty high percentage of certainty that he can get this guy to lay down. It's well thought out and well executed, but, once again, this is not a play that I will be adding to my repetoire.

Gavin

sdplayerb
05-17-2005, 04:32 PM
the opponent wussed out on the turn.
gigabet bets 10K into a 30K pot, i would push.
I wouldn't be worred about AQ or QQ here, as I would expect a reraise by the chip leader 6 handed.
So only 22 beats me.
And even 22 has to worry about some kind of a gut shot on the flop.
I don't care if I am on the bubble, with AK I am pushing on the turn. If I got that unlucky so be it.
And if he does have 22, I do have 7 outs.

And I don't think he had AK, I think he had like TT, AJ, AT.

We only hear about these plays when they work, and not when they don't.

SD

2005
05-17-2005, 04:36 PM
If you have AK and you think you're ahead, why would you push the turn? How many hands that you beat are going to call you? If I was villain in this hand, I would call the turn and call ANY river bet.

locutus2002
05-17-2005, 04:37 PM
I think the play has some interesting merits but overall I think its unsound. Hero is putting up T53K to win T56K ~1:1, but has zero EV if villain calls. Hero must get villain to lay down around 50% of the time to make this work.

I am making the same weak-tight assumptions that is consistent with villain's play, and has been the general consensus of this discussion.

I think leading out on the turn is a great play to get mid pairs to fold, and it narrows villain's range of hands. I don't think villain played the hand well but I think his holding is much larger than AK.

KK - 6 ways
QQ - 3 ways
AA - 1 way
AQ - 6 ways
AK - 8 ways
AJs - 2 ways (I can also see villain making 4 1/2XBB opener with AJs)
26 hands total.

Villain is not laying down AA, QQ, AQ = 10 ways.
Villain is probably laying down KK 6 ways.
Lets even be conservative and say villain is laying down AJs 2 ways.

Of the 8 AK hands remaining, villain has to lay down 6 of these to make the river push about even. That means that 75% of the time villain has to fold AK here.

Can Hero make villain fold this 75% of the time?

If villain is paying enough attention to notice that the turn bet of T10K into a T36K pot with T53K behind did not get either player pot committed, its enough to justify a call 100% of the time.

I think you have to be pretty sure that he will make a mistake and lay the hand down to make this creative play. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

durron597
05-17-2005, 04:41 PM
[ QUOTE ]
If you have AK and you think you're ahead, why would you push the turn? How many hands that you beat are going to call you? If I was villain in this hand, I would call the turn and call ANY river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

And the times he has QQ, you just shrug your shoulders and say "oh well I was one of the tourney chip leaders, but he had QQ and there was no way I could fold"

adanthar
05-17-2005, 04:47 PM
My question would be if a guy like this would bet AA/QQ/AQ on that flop.

AA, at the very least, would probably check. QQ probably would, and might also raise the turn to get the trips to 3 bet. AQ I think also checks here. It depends on how much that guy loves slowplaying, but even if he bets all of them, I don't think he or anyone else continuation bets a set on an AQ2 board heads up. The bet size either implies an ace or a KK hand that's giving up on the turn.

I think you can narrow this starting range (plus JJ-TT) down significantly, possibly even to exactly AK or KK, by the turn. Note that the pairs he opens with don't even matter because only the aces are really important, and lots of weak tighties will fold an AT UTG on the bubble, even six handed.

locutus2002
05-17-2005, 05:02 PM
You may be right about the AA QQ AQ checking; I think you have no chance of getting hero to commit if you don't make a mandatory continuation bet after this flop. This is all speculation though.

If you narrow it down to KK and AK then the play is good if villain will fold AK 1 time out of 8. Still a mistake in my mind, but I would change my view from unsound to unclear.

Sluss
05-17-2005, 05:06 PM
I have never played in one of these events, obviously there are players that are tight enough not to want go broke here. Is this most non-pro's? How common would this be?

2005
05-17-2005, 05:13 PM
I'm one of the most hyper aggro players on the bubble around. I was playing in a 1500 PL event in Tunica. There were 19 left, 18 paid. I called a raise from the SB with QJ against a tight player planning on firing any flop. Flop was AJx, I put him all in. He went into the tank for about 5 minutes and finally called with AK. He said if he had AQ he would have folded.... against me.... so, to answer your question, yes, people play this tight on the bubble.

sdplayerb
05-17-2005, 05:19 PM
the reason i push there is that if he is making a play there with a pocket pair or a gutshot, he isn't calling the river unless he hits his hand that beats me.
if he has an Ace he is calling anyway as the stacks aren't deep enough for him to get away from it.
So i don't really see any hand except maybe KQ that I don't see my play as the better here.

If I had AQ, then I would just flat call here as I want him to hit his under boat or straight, and know I am taking everything off Ax anyway.

scott8
05-17-2005, 05:49 PM
The first thing I want to mention is that I have found Gavin, MLG, and Gigabet's analyis and thoughts very, very, useful in this thread and the original (I must admit that I am surely leaving others out by not going back and re-reading before posting and to those I apologize).
However, those of you who adamently say you can not throw away AK, with limited exceptions, are probably not successful tournament players.
I'm not saying you shouldn't call with AK in this spot, but its certainly not the auto-call that some have suggested.
Something that hasn't been mentioned that definately should
be considered was that Gigabet only had the second stack covered by 10k. If he is called he is down to this 10k with
800 going into the sb on the next hand.
If you are the AK, not only are you dealing with the call of the raise by a tight imaged player, the call of the flop, the tricky (and reason this play works at all) lead out on the turn, but you then have a player going all-in who would be nearly crippled if he lost.
Do tight players do this? Of course, but are you willing to risk your tourney in this spot when there are a wide range of hands that beat you?
I guess my main point is that AK is obviously not the nuts, and if some are suggesting that you auto-call under this scenario with this hand, given all the action that has been discussed, I strongly and respectfully disagree.
-SC

sdplayerb
05-17-2005, 06:56 PM
so what would you think the other person has? AQ, QQ, 22 or A2?

I've made huge laydowns (including AK on an A high board), so that is not an issue here. When I make a laydown it is because I can view the person having a hand that beats me and playing it in such a manner. Here with AK I would not do so. And would be correct here as gigabet had no such hand.

And I still don't think that guy had AK.

scott8
05-17-2005, 07:16 PM
[ QUOTE ]
so what would you think the other person has? AQ, QQ, 22 or A2?

I've made huge laydowns (including AK on an A high board), so that is not an issue here. When I make a laydown it is because I can view the person having a hand that beats me and playing it in such a manner. Here with AK I would not do so. And would be correct here as gigabet had no such hand.

And I still don't think that guy had AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

The point of my post assumed the guy had AK.
So, if you were this guy with AK, and Gigabet did have the tight table image he had described, what range of hands would you put Gigabet on to make this push?
Its easy if you can spot the bluff, but who can if his table-image is correct?
Then, if you are sitting with Ak, have raised UTG, been called on the flop, led into when the second Ace hit, and pushed on the river, what would you put your opponent on?
Considering all these factors, why do you still think AK is the best hand (and please don't tell me that it was, as I too wish Gigabet had not posted his hand before this discussion took off).
-SC

sdplayerb
05-17-2005, 07:29 PM
i would have pushed the turn.
if he was tight, he would have reraised with QQ.
Due to it being 6 handed, which is very important, I would put him on AJ or AT, really AJ.
Due to it being 6 handed, I would expect a reraise with AQ.
A tight player should throw away 22 as the depth of the stacks doesn't really warrant a call here.
So I would put him on AJ or AT.

SD

scott8
05-17-2005, 07:40 PM
[ QUOTE ]
i would have pushed the turn.
if he was tight, he would have reraised with QQ.
Due to it being 6 handed, which is very important, I would put him on AJ or AT, really AJ.
Due to it being 6 handed, I would expect a reraise with AQ.
A tight player should throw away 22 as the depth of the stacks doesn't really warrant a call here.
So I would put him on AJ or AT.

SD

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with most of your analysis, except for the part about re-raising AQ OOP. I think the opponent has to put him on AQ or AJ based on the play. AQ and he is out, AJ and he is in, too much uncertainty to risk his whole tourney.

Seadood228
05-17-2005, 08:02 PM
You will see a lot of pros make this laydown on the bubble, and possibly other parts of the tourney.

sdplayerb
05-17-2005, 09:45 PM
who? when?

Chief911
05-17-2005, 09:47 PM
I dont think many pros lay this down. I think they call and thank the fish for the chips. This is an obviously highly specialized play, that 85% of the time is not going to work. Special player, special read, and it worked.

Nick

HoldingFolding
05-17-2005, 10:08 PM
Gavin,

Can I just ask why you wouldn't put him on KK (or perhaps less likely JJ/TT). Raise from early position, gets called by chip leader. Nasty Ace on the flop, but he makes a continuation bet, which is called. Now he's not sure where he is and Gig bets into him on the turn. OK may be he does have the Ace, but perhaps I can get to a showdown cheaply and find out. Additionally, maybe Gig thinks his image is tight, but perhaps the opponent acually knows who he is and that he make plays. Of course, when Gig goes all in he has no choice, but to lay it down and the hand-wringing was all a show.

I play at a ridiculously low level, but I would like to know how you 'disprove' this.

durron597
05-17-2005, 10:14 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Gavin,

Can I just ask why you wouldn't put him on KK (or perhaps less likely JJ/TT). Raise from early position, gets called by chip leader. Nasty Ace on the flop, but he makes a continuation bet, which is called. Now he's not sure where he is and Gig bets into him on the turn. OK may be he does have the Ace, but perhaps I can get to a showdown cheaply and find out. Additionally, maybe Gig thinks his image is tight, but perhaps the opponent acually knows who he is and that he make plays. Of course, when Gig goes all in he has no choice, but to lay it down and the hand-wringing was all a show.

I play at a ridiculously low level, but I would like to know how you 'disprove' this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not Gavin, but if you'll recall from the thread Gigabet said that his opponent looked slightly confused by the turn bet and seemed to call without really knowing what the right play was.

Remember this is live not online.

KingDan
05-17-2005, 10:19 PM
If someone cannot fold AK preflop, I cannot expect them to lay it down after hitting trips.

yecul
05-17-2005, 10:21 PM
It's hard to comment on this hand. It was entirely read dependent. Though, if he put him on AK giving him trips, I don't like the play. You'd have to be VERY confident that he'd lay it down.

What if a K came on the river? Do you give him credit for the boat and check/fold?

durron597
05-17-2005, 10:23 PM
[ QUOTE ]
If someone cannot fold AK preflop, I cannot expect them to lay it down after hitting trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

He never had a chance to fold AK preflop, he raised UTG and was flatcalled by Giga.

CieloAzor
05-17-2005, 10:47 PM
It's not impossible that villain had AK here but I certainly don't think it's his most likely holding. KK would get played the same way, and AJ/AT make just as much sense. The guy may have raised UTG, but it's only 6-handed. If he's only raising Group A hands, he's making a mistake. Maybe he got caught with A5s. We'll probably never know.

Seadood228
05-17-2005, 11:29 PM
Well I guess I should preface this by saying not many pros will play this hand preflop and on the flop this way..

Villian messed up no doubt about it, but let's assume the villian had a complete brain fart during the first 3 betting rounds, there's no way a top pro is going to think AK is good UNLESS he puts Gigabet on a stone cold bluff.

Given the image Gigabet's been passing off (not getting out of line), given the situation (bubble), and given the relative chip positions (2 big stacks), what kind of hand would a top pro put Gigabet on given the action? AT, AJ? No way. It would be suicidal for those hands to move in on the river, because they will only get called by better hands. Most players will simply check the river and decide whether or not they want to call a bet in that situation, or maybe throw out a modest blocking/value bet.

So in order for a pro to make that call, he'd have to put his opponent on a stone cold bluff. Now someone tell me what bluffing hand is going to call the flop, lead the turn, then move in on the river? JT/QJ/QT? It's possible, but not likely IMO.

If the situation were different, or if Gigabet had a different table image, I could see making the call..

Personally I think the villian put himself in a position to get outplayed on later streets. First of all I hate his preflop raise, it's way too much. I think he could have accomplished what he needed to with a raise of ~2.5BBs. If Gigabet comes OTT he can then move in. If Gigabet calls then he can play a small pot in position holding a great hand.

I also think he should have checked the flop, called a bet on the turn (after pondering a call for a bit), and called ANY bet on the river. Playing the hand this way sounds weak, but at least you don't give away your hand like our villian did in the above example. If you check/call, your opponent will put you on any number of hands (QJ/QT/JT, AA, AQ,KK,JJ,Ax, QQ etc...) IMO this line gets you the most chips when ahead and loses the least when behind. If your opponent is holding a monster, he will likely bet a smallish amount on the river with the hopes that a hand like JJ,KK, or a weak A will pay off. If he has nothing, he'll most likely bet a larger amount to scare you away. Either way it's good for you /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Seadood228
05-17-2005, 11:30 PM
I think AK is precisely what villian had... Unless he was doing some hollywood with a hand like KK or JJ.

sdplayerb
05-17-2005, 11:48 PM
you can't check the flop with the gutshot draws out there or give the person a free shot to hit two pairs.
Unless a J or T comes on the turn, you go all the way with it on the turn.

Seadood228
05-18-2005, 12:06 AM
[ QUOTE ]
you can't check the flop with the gutshot draws out there or give the person a free shot to hit two pairs.
Unless a J or T comes on the turn, you go all the way with it on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? You sometimes gotta sacrifice value and/or drawouts in order to prevent yourself from A) going broke with big hands that you want to show down, B) getting outplayed by opponents who are capable of making bold reads and sticking to them, and C) playing too many big pots, especially against players who can cripple and/or bust you.

So if you move in on the turn, what worse will hands call you? Does AT or AJ pay you off? Remember this is a pretty big buy-in MTT and not a Super Sunday. If you move in on the turn you will get called by boat, and that's probably it.. Especially by an opponent who's been playing tight up till this point.

Also if you plan on putting the hammer down to a safe card on the turn, why not do it on the flop? One less card to outdraw you right?

sdplayerb
05-18-2005, 12:16 AM
AJ and AT will call here with the A coming for trips.
I'm not giving them a free card to hit it..so if you think they will lay it down, no reason to give the free card.
Only AQ, QQ and 22 beat me. I don't see QQ, AQ likely reraises pf also, 22 isn't a good calling hand here either.

I'm not pushing for 5x the amount in the pot on the flop. That is just moronic.

Seadood228
05-18-2005, 12:42 AM
Sorry I'm not trying to be argumentative here, but I'm just having a hard time agreeing with your logic.

[ QUOTE ]
AJ and AT will call here with the A coming for trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

I seriously doubt this, unless he's a seriously bad player who has gotten lucky getting this many chips. By the looks of the action up till now, this simply isn't true. Maybe in a Stars or Party $215, but not in a 2k tourney with ~1hr levels. I think those hands will call you <20% of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not giving them a free card to hit it..so if you think they will lay it down, no reason to give the free card.

I'm not pushing for 5x the amount in the pot on the flop. That is just moronic.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you are willing to give them a cheap card on the flop but not on the turn? I just don't get it. And I'm not advocating moving in for 5X the pot on the flop, but it's not much different than doing it on the turn. I think you can even argue that it's better to do it on the flop, because your bet looks a lot weaker than a turn push. The bottom line is if you are behind your in a lot of trouble, if you are ahead your opponent has at best 6 outs, but most of the time he'll have much fewer. Free cards will rarely hurt you in this spot. Getting your money in drawing almost completely dead will.

[ QUOTE ]
Only AQ, QQ and 22 beat me. I don't see QQ, AQ likely reraises pf also, 22 isn't a good calling hand here either.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a good player will play all 3 of these hands the exact same way in this spot. He might reraise all three, but many players don't, especially on the bubble against another big stack.

sdplayerb
05-18-2005, 12:57 AM
what free card on the flop?
i bet around 8K, he bet 10K. what is cheap about that?

22 is fold here.
I only see AQ as being worried about.
But if he is soooo tight, he'd throw that away.

Seadood228
05-18-2005, 01:28 AM
[ QUOTE ]
But if he is soooo tight, he'd throw that away.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody said he's tight. It's been implied that the hero is tight. All we know about UTG is that he has a big stack. His raise makes him appear to not want action though, which is just what we do with hands like 22, AQ, and a host of others. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I think you are falling victim to playing first level poker. This works great online and in smaller tourneys, but can and will lead to problems as you move up.

And I'm not trying to say you don't play in the big tourneys, I would have no way of knowing that, and don't want this to turn into a pissing match.

locutus2002
05-18-2005, 01:35 AM
I think its KK too.
and this is all rhetoric.

sdplayerb
05-18-2005, 02:18 AM
not trying to start a pissing match either, but your assertion on what i play is very wrong.
I play about 50/50 offline and online tourneys, countless $200 buyins live, numerous $300-500 and a $1,000 at the San Diego Harrah's WSOP where I got knocked out 25th when getting allin flopping the nut straight or would have been 1st.

Trust me, I don't do single level thinking.
If anything you are.

If you think he doesn't want action, reraise with AQ, especially 6 handed. If I am UTG 6handed 2nd biggest chip stack on the bubble, I am raising with just about any A.
AQ is a good hand to win a small pot or lose a huge one, unless you get lucky and hit AQ flop when against AK, but it is terrible to play for that.

22 you view as a hand to try to flop a set. You aren't getting enough value on your money here as you can't be sure you are going to get paid off if you do hit it, and will have a tough decision otherwise.
You are better off saving those chips to be aggressive with, and this is the perfect time to do so.

sdplayerb
05-18-2005, 02:19 AM
finally a man making sense...I think AT also.

theBruiser500
05-18-2005, 03:06 AM
in the bahamas, gigabet paid me $100 to go to the bar and get him a drink

MLG
05-18-2005, 03:14 AM
I can vouch for that.

I can also say that bruiser was so concerned his id wouldn't work, that I got a drink for him.

SossMan
05-18-2005, 04:02 AM
i don't get the interest...

he picked an opponent.

he saw a spot.

he knew that this particular opponent would have to have a boat here to call.
given how the hand played out, he likely didn't have that boat.

he made a move.

seems....dare i say...standard?

sdplayerb
05-18-2005, 04:12 AM
all the posts really have been on whether the dude that folded had AK.
I am about the only one saying if so it is a terrible play by him and I would push on the turn in about 10 seconds as I don't see him playing any hand that beats me in this manner, unless he sucks...which gigabet doesn't.

durron597
05-18-2005, 07:52 AM
[ QUOTE ]
i don't get the interest...

he picked an opponent.

he saw a spot.

he knew that this particular opponent would have to have a boat here to call.
given how the hand played out, he likely didn't have that boat.

he made a move.

seems....dare i say...standard?

[/ QUOTE ]

Standard for excellent players with massive cahunas.... aka not most of us.

Seadood228
05-18-2005, 10:01 AM
[ QUOTE ]
If you think he doesn't want action, reraise with AQ, especially 6 handed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I should rephrase my original comment. I don't neccessarily thing UTG doesn't want action by the size of his raise, he just doesn't want to take a flop. It's possible that he DOES want action, but doesn't want to have to make any hard postflop decisions with his hand. If you reraise him, there's a decent chance he's going to make a move with his hand and take the pot away from you because most players can't call with all but the top 1% of hands in that situation. There are many players, quite a few good ones, who will make that play with hands like TT, JJ, and AK. Why reopen the betting and give your opponent a chance to outplay you?

Most of your opponent's raising hands WILL GO DOWN IN VALUE AFTER THE FLOP, which means a good portion of the time you can use your stack and postflop aggression to steal this pot away. If you reraise preflop, you risk a greater % of your stack, all while eliminating all the tough decisions from your opponent. His only option after your raise is to push or fold, which is essentially letting them off the hook.

And as far as 22 playing for set value, that's hogwash. The possibility of flopping a set is just a bonus here. I think there are too many players who overvalue flopping sets and undervalue the strength of PPs unimproved, especially on the flop.

durron597
05-18-2005, 01:26 PM
Results (http://www.pokerpages.com/blog-players/poker-mike-paulle.htm)

2005
05-18-2005, 01:40 PM
Mike Paulle writes the worst tournament reports ever.

2005
05-18-2005, 01:54 PM
If you have AK in this spot, I still think it's terrible to push the turn. Call the turn, call the river.

sdplayerb
05-18-2005, 02:01 PM
i already responded to your post on this..i explained why i would push.
i would like to hear why you think your play is better, in terms of what the players action would be if you just call with his different possible hands.

also i do think it is somewhat opponent dependent. if he is super-agg, i would be more apt to agree with you.
if it is somebody who likes to put pressure on, i moreso disagree.

Thanks

SD

2005
05-18-2005, 02:04 PM
If you push, you get called by most aces, all full houses, and that's it. If this player is getting stupid with KK, JJ, TT, etc. then you don't get any more money from him if he is bluffing. If he's bluffing the turn it makes sense that he'll bluff the river right? I just don't like pushing when it's very likely that your opponent is drawing so slim. Give him a chance to ship you more money if he's bluffing.

Gavin

sdplayerb
05-18-2005, 02:11 PM
can you be sure he is going to bluff again?
if not, why give a free shot to hit a 2 outer.
I know it is slim, but I believe you are giving him a free shot as he won't give you anything more as it has become pretty clear you have an A.

If he does have a pp, i believe he didn't believe you had the A when you bet the flop, so he puts you to the test on the turn. when you call he gives up on it.
so why give him the free shot?

MLG
05-18-2005, 02:12 PM
If the stacks were slightly deeper I could see a turn raise. A raise that gets some worse hands to call and lets you check behind the river has some merits because it keeps you from facing a tough big river bet. but you aren't deep enough here, and for the reasons gavin listed raising the turn is worse than calling. One other thing is that a turn push might let him fold a worse A which is really crappy.

MLG
05-18-2005, 02:13 PM
what if your push gets him to fold a worse A on the turn.

nolanfan34
05-18-2005, 02:18 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Mike Paulle writes the worst tournament reports ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

He did give some props to Gavin Griffith though.

sdplayerb
05-18-2005, 03:26 PM
if he is going to fold it on the turn, why wouldn't he check/fold it on the river?

KingDan
05-18-2005, 04:03 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If someone cannot fold AK preflop, I cannot expect them to lay it down after hitting trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

He never had a chance to fold AK preflop, he raised UTG and was flatcalled by Giga.

[/ QUOTE ]

In STT he said he did not raise all in because his opponent was not capable of folding PF.

Gigabet
05-19-2005, 03:27 PM
[ QUOTE ]

i don't get the interest...

he picked an opponent.

he saw a spot.

he knew that this particular opponent would have to have a boat here to call.
given how the hand played out, he likely didn't have that boat.

he made a move.

seems....dare i say...standard?

[/ QUOTE ]

TYVM