Calling down with TT

[rory]

Am I doing these calculations correctly? The situation is that UTG raises, you 3 bet with TT, middle position guy 4 bets, everyone else folds including the original raiser. Middle position guy has AA, KK, QQ, JJ, or AK. No other hands. The question is, should you call down unimproved assuming your opponent bet-bet-checks the river when you are ahead and bet-bet-bets when you are behind.

When you are ahead you win the 11.5 small bets that are in the pot preflop plus 3 small bets postflop, so 14.5 bets.

When you are behind you lose 5 small bets postflop.

There are 16 ways for him to have AK, and 24 ways to have a bigger pair, so your probability of having the best hand is 2/5 and the probability of having the worst hand is 3/5.

So, your expected value of a call down when you are ahead is: 14.5 SB * 2/5 = 5.8 SB. The expected value of a call down when you are behind is -5 SB * 3/5 = -3 SB. So you should clearly call down.

Is this calculation correct, to a first approximation?

[rory]

Is it legit to do something like pokerstove TT and his range of hands, and do this:

33% of the time pokerstove says we win. We will win 14.5 SB assuming he bets the flop and turn. So .33 * 14.5 = 4.785 SB.

66% of the time pokerstove says we will lose. We will lose 5 SB assuming he bets the flop, turn and river. So .66 * 5 SB = -3.30 SB.

So we should call down because our expected value is 4.785 - 3.30 = 1.485 SB?