FOLD AA PREFLOP????

[kyro]

Now that I have your attention...

I've decided to pose the most useless, hypothetical problem that has had me thinking for several days. There has very little relevance, but I thought it would be interesting to see some answers. Here's the deal.

First hand of a Party SNG. (We'll say a $55). Start with 1000 chips. You are in BB with AA.

Scenario A: Folded to SB who pushes.
Scenario B: UTG pushes. Everyone around the table calls. You are last to act.

Scenario A is an obvious call. You're about 80% or so to double up and greatly increase your chances of making the money.

Scenario B is a clear fold. By folding, you're just about guaranteed to take second place(barring some weird-ass split). If you call, you'll come in first about 30% of the time, and be knocked out about 70%. Clearly, it is +EV to fold.

Where do you draw the line?

In other words. The first (9-x) people fold, and the remaining X players push. At what value x and x+1 do you call and fold respectively?

Assume all players are of average ability near the bubble, ITM, and HU. Also assume that players hold any two. The SB is as likely to call an all-in with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif2/images/graemlins/spade.gif as he is to call with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/club.gif

I'm curious if anyone can do the math for this.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Strassa previously posted this two days ago:

Thinking about situations like these makes you a worse poker player.

[/ QUOTE ]

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Strassa previously posted this two days ago:

Thinking about situations like these makes you a worse poker player.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Thinking about poker makes me a worse player?

I haven't been around much lately, I'll have to find his post and figure out what he was talking about.

[UMTerp]

This is a pretty pointless excercise, but the calculation is easy, so I'll oblige.

ASSUMPTIONS: no ties, all players are equally skilled, no blinds, "big stack" advantage is negligible as far as blind stealing

All-In Opponents - Chance of Winning - ICM if win - ICM if Fold - Call EV

1 85.2% 0.1844 0.1000 0.1571
2 73.5% 0.2550 0.1019 0.1874
3 63.8% 0.3133 0.1064 0.1999
4 55.9% 0.3611 0.1144 0.2019
5 49.2% 0.4000 0.1278 0.1968
6 43.5% 0.4317 0.1500 0.1878
7 38.7% 0.4578 0.1894 0.1772
8 34.7% 0.4800 0.2711 0.1666
9 31.1% 0.5000 0.3200 0.1555

Therefore, you should call if six random hands push in before you, but fold if seven do. Boy... that's practical!

[microbet]

I don't think Strassa spends time thinking about ways to fold Aces.

[shejk]

Pokerstove takes forever to calculate aa's chances against several random.

[kyro]

I can safely say that thinking about something like this (determining the EV by calling with AA after 9 pushers) would help me learn EV when I was first starting out. Is it necessarily "helpful" to me now? No, probably not. But I highly doubt, regardless of what strassa, (who would wipe the floor with me) says, that it makes me a "worse" player. I would say that anything that gets you thinking about EV, however irrelevant, can do no worse than give you a better understanding of the game.

[microbet]

I agree, as long as you don't end up folding Aces inappropriately because you are in a similar situation, but not similar enough, and you have that thought in mind.

For some reason, I'm just being argumentative this morning. Procrastination. I have a lot of work I don't want to do.

[DrPhysic]

I wonder why accomplished chess players continue to do esoteric chess problems? Same logic maybe?

Doc

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree, as long as you don't end up folding Aces inappropriately because you are in a similar situation, but not similar enough, and you have that thought in mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have never folded AA or KK and never plan on doing so barring incredibly unusual circumstances (satellite, incredible read)

[ QUOTE ]
For some reason, I'm just being argumentative this morning. Procrastination. I have a lot of work I don't want to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

No qualms here. I like when people prove me wrong. It means I became that much smarter.

[TheDrone]

I think the point is that dwelling on this makes you a worse player in relative terms rather than absolute terms. If you spend time thinking about how to improve your game (identifying your biggest leaks and how to fix them), then you are much better off than thinking about hypothetical situations which are not leaks and have little or no practical application.

[durron597]

All you need to know about folding AA preflop is in this thread. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=2323818 )

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the point is that dwelling on this makes you a worse player in relative terms rather than absolute terms. If you spend time thinking about how to improve your game (identifying your biggest leaks and how to fix them), then you are much better off than thinking about hypothetical situations which are not leaks and have little or no practical application.

[/ QUOTE ]

that is a good point. i didn't mean to give the impression that all i think about is hypothetical extremes, however.

[TomBrooks]

This might shed some light on your question. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=genpok&Number=1606433&fpar t=&PHPSESSID=)

[chopchoi]

Would you have played the same way no matter what the turn was?

Also, if your opponent min-raised you on the turn, would you still have had the nerve to make a play on him?

[citanul]

To start with, i'd like to answer your question from the other thread, which was did you have some problem with this post. for the answer to that question:

[ QUOTE ]
I've decided to pose the most useless, hypothetical problem that has had me thinking for several days. There has very little relevance, but I thought it would be interesting to see some answers.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, that's pretty much my problem with the post. /images/graemlins/smile.gif oh, that and more, we'll get to that.

[ QUOTE ]
First hand of a Party SNG. (We'll say a $55). Start with 1000 chips. You are in BB with AA.

Scenario A: Folded to SB who pushes.
Scenario B: UTG pushes. Everyone around the table calls. You are last to act.

Scenario A is an obvious call. You're about 80% or so to double up and greatly increase your chances of making the money.

Scenario B is a clear fold. By folding, you're just about guaranteed to take second place(barring some weird-ass split). If you call, you'll come in first about 30% of the time, and be knocked out about 70%. Clearly, it is +EV to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

alright, let's start from here, just for jokes. i haven't read anyone else's comments because well, i don't care and the only reason i'm here is to try to be a little nice to you. not because i feel bad though, so don't get that in your head.

in scenario b, you've forgotten something very important. when you call and lose in that spot, you tie for 2nd/3rd with the other 9 players who lose on the hand. so let's put your equity for folding at 150+(1/10)(250) for a 50 buyin game. that's 175. calling gives you (3/10)(250)+(1/9)(7/10)(1/2)(150+100) (i'm assuming that when you tie, they split money. thats... 75+9.7ish. that's 83ish. so yes, it's a fold in this spot, but it shows the precedent for what you should be thinking about for the other situations you question later.

[ QUOTE ]
Where do you draw the line?

In other words. The first (9-x) people fold, and the remaining X players push. At what value x and x+1 do you call and fold respectively?

Assume all players are of average ability near the bubble, ITM, and HU. Also assume that players hold any two. The SB is as likely to call an all-in with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif2/images/graemlins/spade.gif as he is to call with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/club.gif

I'm curious if anyone can do the math for this.

[/ QUOTE ]

the rest of the "math for this" as you put it, is just really not that hard. if you want to do it with random hands for your opponents you run it with random hands for your opponents. if you want to put them on ranges of hands you do that. it depends how stupidly hypothetical you want your question to actually be. since you're positting equal play standards and whatnot, you can just make up numbers like this, check the hand equities, and then run some ICM calculations. nothing very hard at all, but i'm certainly not going to do all that work for really no reason at all.

hope that this sheds some light on how to approach this problem if you choose to attack it further. you did a good thing for yourself mathematically by choosing to limit the situation to even stacked and aa. otherwise it starts getting ugly.

so yeah, i have problems with this original post. mostly that a) it's useless and stupid and b) it's trivially answerable and c) you claim to have been thinking about it for a while but have forgotten that if you and everyone else get eliminated at the same time you split the bottom monies.

citanul