some questions

[J.R.]

24/15/2.2 (somewhat snug and decently aggressive player, plays OK but appears "bookish" postflop- nothing freaky) opens utg, I 3-bet AKo from CO, blinds drop.

I haven't gotten out of line and my stats are taggy. headsup for 10.5 bets.

flop: QJ5 rainbow. check-bet

turn: 7[QJ5] rainbow. check- ... How much does it matter either way?




assuming I check the turn:

what's my river plan?

If you fold to a bet unimproved, how wide would the initial raiser's standards have to be before you consider calling a river bet unimproved?

Do you raise a rivered A or K if he leads? Folding to a 3-bet if you raise?

Do you bet if he checks? If not, against what kind of opponent (rough stats or other comments) would you consider value betting here? This is a slightly more compelling bet had the opener been in the CO and you the button, does it change much if he opened two off the button instead of utg?



assuming I bet the turn

I check behind unimproved if he calls. If he check-raises the turn I check-fold unimproved, calling a rivered A or K and raising a T. Comments, especially the rivered A or K line?


answer whatever interests u, I ask too much, thanks

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
24/15/2.2 (somewhat snug and decently aggressive player, plays OK but appears "bookish" postflop- nothing freaky) opens utg, I 3-bet AKo from CO, blinds drop.

I haven't gotten out of line and my stats are taggy. headsup for 10.5 bets.

flop: QJ5 rainbow. check-bet

turn: 7[QJ5] rainbow. check- ... How much does it matter either way?<font color="green"> I check everytime. I think it matters. </font>




assuming I check the turn:

what's my river plan?<font color="green"> I call a bet </font>

If you fold to a bet unimproved, how wide would the initial raiser's standards have to be before you consider calling a river bet unimproved?

Do you raise a rivered A or K if he leads? Folding to a 3-bet if you raise?<font color="green"> I raise both a good %. </font>

Do you bet if he checks? <font color="green"> not usually </font> If not, against what kind of opponent (rough stats or other comments) would you consider value betting here? This is a slightly more compelling bet had the opener been in the CO and you the button, does it change much if he opened two off the button instead of utg? <font color="green"> I won't value bet ace high in this spot </font>



assuming I bet the turn

I check behind unimproved if he calls. If he check-raises the turn I check-fold unimproved, calling a rivered A or K and raising a T. Comments, especially the rivered A or K line?<font color="green"> Calling a turn check raise is the reason you check the turn. It sucks. I like the river play. </font>


answer whatever interests u, I ask too much, thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

Krishan

[___1___]

[ QUOTE ]
turn: 7[QJ5] rainbow. check- ... How much does it matter either way?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok...opponents preflop range probably includes AKs-ATs(&amp;o), JJ-77 (ruling out AA-QQ, per no PF cap), KQs-KTs, QJs, QTs, JTs, KQo, KJ.

I am ahead of KT,JT,AT at this point. He is folding on the flop with a lower PP most likely, and I don't think he's folding QJ,QT, or any K obviously.

Just a guess, but I think my equity is a somewhere in the 33-37% (no pokerstove at work /images/graemlins/frown.gif) range and I don't see opponent folding 2nd pair enough to bet this turn. I think it's fairly close on the turn, but I check b/c:

1) Opponent is not likely to fold 2nd pair
2) My equity is probably in the 35% range, and
3) In my experience, opponent will not bluff at you on the river when he misses with AK, KT, or JT.

Basically, I think a bet is slightly -EV against this opponent.

[ QUOTE ]
assuming I check the turn: what's my river plan?


[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you fold to a bet unimproved, how wide would the initial raiser's standards have to be before you consider calling a river bet unimproved?


[/ QUOTE ]

I fold to a river bet unimproved probably 85% of the time here. Against a considerably looser opponent I bet the turn much more often.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you raise a rivered A or K if he leads? Folding to a 3-bet if you raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably 50/50 between calling and raising, and I would always fold to a 3bet.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you bet if he checks? If not, against what kind of opponent (rough stats or other comments) would you consider value betting here? This is a slightly more compelling bet had the opener been in the CO and you the button, does it change much if he opened two off the button instead of utg?


[/ QUOTE ]


I don't bet if he checks. I'm almost never value-betting here. I think it changes a lot if he opened in the CO.

[ QUOTE ]
assuming I bet the turn

I check behind unimproved if he calls. If he check-raises the turn I check-fold unimproved, calling a rivered A or K and raising a T. Comments, especially the rivered A or K line?

[/ QUOTE ]

This mirrors my line.


___1___

[BottlesOf]

I don't think betting and folding to a turn c/r getting 9:1 is something that we should never do in this case. Our outs be tainted.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think betting and folding to a turn c/r getting 9:1 is something that we should never do in this case. Our outs be tainted.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your right.

Krishan

[BottlesOf]

Actually, I'm not. I missed the gutshot. Glad I contributed nothing /images/graemlins/smile.gif

But I think this is a very interesting post, and I'm going to think about it some more.

[kiddo]

I really dont see which hands he will checkcall flop, maybe a lower pair or JTs?

If he is "bookish" postflop he will checkraise turn with 2pair or set, not 1 pair, so I think u safely can fold a turncheckraise.

I would check turn if he was more aggressive, capable of checkraising this turn with a small pair and often bluffing river if we check turn. But not against a bookish guy, if bookish means that he is a bit predictable.

If I didnt bet turn I am not sure I would raise river if he bets. I often do, but what can he put u on that isnt helped by A or K hitting river? If he is bookish I guess he is thinking?

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, I'm not. I missed the gutshot. Glad I contributed nothing /images/graemlins/smile.gif

But I think this is a very interesting post, and I'm going to think about it some more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I misread your post. Stop using double negatives.

Krishan

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
Stop using double negatives

[/ QUOTE ]

Learnig poker from Peter_Rus=+EV. Learning English from him=-EV. JBB didn't use any double negatives /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

Scott

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Stop using double negatives

[/ QUOTE ]

Learnig poker from Peter_Rus=+EV. Learning English from him=-EV. JBB didn't use any double negatives /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think betting and folding to a turn c/r getting 9:1 is something that we should never do in this case.

Isn't there a double negative in here?

Krishan

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think betting and folding to a turn c/r getting 9:1 is something that we should never do in this case.

Isn't there a double negative in here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was looking at what you had quoted, not the original post, but no, that sentence does not have a double negative either. "I don't think betting . . ." negates the verb "to think". "We should never do . . ." negates the verb to do. A double negative would be something like "I don't think not betting . . ."

Scott

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think betting and folding to a turn c/r getting 9:1 is something that we should never do in this case.

Isn't there a double negative in here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was looking at what you had quoted, not the original post, but no, that sentence does not have a double negative either. "I don't think betting . . ." negates the verb "to think". "We should never do . . ." negates the verb to do. A double negative would be something like "I don't think not betting . . ."

Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

Should be rephrased, "We should consider folding to a turn check raise getting 9-1."

Krishan

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
Should be rephrased,

[/ QUOTE ]

Wordy sentences do not a double negative make.

Scott

[___1___]

J.R.,

Great post, btw. One of the best in recent memory in this forum. I really don't get how after two hours this post hasn't got but 1 or 2 worthwhile responses. People will always respond to mind-numbingly boring hand posts, but when there is actually some thought involved there are basically no quality responses. How this post this good immediatly deteriorates into some critique of grammar is beyond me...*sigh*

P.S. Start a new topic in the f******* OOT forum if you want to grammar. This forum has officially become worthless.

___1___

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Should be rephrased,

[/ QUOTE ]

Wordy sentences do not a double negative make.

Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="white"> My penis is not more smaller than Scott's!!! </font>

[MAxx]

i ran the pokerstove on your range and this board, having the flop and turn rainbow.

JR is approx a 60/40 dog on the flop and a 68/32 dog on the turned 7.

[Trix]

I dont think you will get CRed very often on the turn in this spot, but he may bet out on the river if you bet the turn. I dont see tight players do it very often as a bluff, so you can probably just give him creding for AJ valuebet or such and fold.

So I think you should bet turn to get value from KT,AT and maybe fold a small-medium pocket pair, A5 or something like JT.

Think it matters a bit, but there are tons of things that can make one of the lines prefered over the other, so it´s not that big a difference.

Assuming you check the turn and he bets the river I´d put him on something like:
AJ^9,AQ^9,AT^12,KT^12,A5s^3,66-TT^30,KJ^9,KQ^9, so:
24 you beat and 59 you dont, roughly 2.5:1, so you must call. Weighted, I think you odds would be worse as KT/AT may recognize this as a cheap showdown play and not bluff, but AQ/KQ may or may not play faster for value, but it wont make up for the other. Probably still a call though.

I´d probably just call if he bets the river on an A or K after you check turn, as your hand is pretty transparant at that point. I´d valuebet against most checks.

I really dont think you will be CRed on the turn very often, so I´m folding. Maybe I´m biased by my own play on that though.

[___1___]

[ QUOTE ]
i ran the pokerstove on your range and this board, having the flop and turn rainbow.

JR is approx a 60/40 dog on the flop and a 68/32 dog on the turned 7.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks MAxx. Considering this, I guess a question would be...How often must opponent fold second pair on the turn for a bet to be +EV (this assuming, of course, he won't fold top pair and he will just call our turn bet with second pair/openender)? I'm sure he would have to fold considerably more in theory than he actually would in practice.

___1___

[Trix]

The pot is 7.5 BB if you get CRed on the turn. His flop potsize number is wrong, unless I´m missing something..

Wasn´t it HU for 3bets without blinds ?

[BottlesOf]

It was a poorly constructed sentence, on that there is no doubt. It was also a poorly constructed poker thought. At least, I'm consistant.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

Wordy sentences do not a double negative make.


[/ QUOTE ]

True, but applying a negative to a clause containing a negative does a double negative make.

JBB's sentence was confusing not because of its wordiness but because it used "I don't think..." applied to "we should never".

If that's not a double negative then I don't know what is.

I do know what a double negative is because logic is my job.

Therefore, that is a double negative.

... and that was reductio ad absurdum, which is just beautifully ironic here IMO.

Guy.

P.S. Huge apologies to all for continuing this hijack of a very very important thread. Can I be forgiven on the ground that at least this post bumps the thread to the top?

[MAxx]

IMO, you cannot get second pair to fold very often here. I think TT may even cling pretty hard as well. You could get folds out of 66, 88, or 99... (obvioulsy not 55 &amp; 77). 66,88,99 may likely still be around hopeing you do not push them off the best hand with a turn bet... but likely do fold to turn bet.

How many ways can we make 66,88,99 verse the other likely holdings? or if we stay consistent with the range __1__ gave we are almost exclusively talking about wanting to make 88 and 99 fold. Seeing as we can't make open enders fold, really ATo (IMO)is the most interesting villain... who I think will fold to a turn bet.

Then KT &amp; AT &amp; JT may try to make a play at you if you check turn and river bricks... but I think more often than not they will hope for cheap showdown more so than takeing a stab (from my impression of this villain). However JTo would be just giving up. Hmm...JTo and KTo maybe more likely to lead river in this spot than AT or AK.

This just general rambling, but I probably prefer to check turn vs THIS player. I probably fold river too unimproved, but this is a tuff decision.

Against looser players, I prefer betting turn and checking behind on river.

If I were to check turn and hit an A or K on river...I just call... but I defintiely bet if checked to. If you did raise river, it would be an easy fold to 3bet.

[arkady]

[ QUOTE ]


P.S. Start a new topic in the f******* OOT forum if you want to grammar. This forum has officially become worthless.



[/ QUOTE ]

i am sorry, that is too funny. you seem slightly irritable J, everything ok?

[___1___]

Arkady,

Just annoyed at idiots who are determined to hijack a perfectly good topic to chatter mindlessly about double-negatives. The days of Gonores, Peter_rus, Schneids, El Diablo, Stripsqueez, soda, Vehn, and meaningful discussion seem long ago.

___1___

[___1___]

[ QUOTE ]
This just general rambling, but I probably prefer to check turn vs THIS player. I probably fold river too unimproved, but this is a tuff decision.

Against looser players, I prefer betting turn and checking behind on river.

If I were to check turn and hit an A or K on river...I just call... but I defintiely bet if checked to. If you did raise river, it would be an easy fold to 3bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree completely. Against looser players is really where the turn/river decision becomes more complicated.

___1___

[arkady]

Everyone here has to accept the fact that those days are gone. Can't bring those people back and have to work with what we have here. That being said, the people involved in the hijack are good posters overall and should be given a pardon this one time.

Besides J, who needs all those posters when I can look at your hands any time of the day /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[___1___]

[ QUOTE ]
Besides J, who needs all those posters when I can look at your hands any time of the day

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's what you are looking at seeking guidance, then you are in for one rude awakening!

___1___

[arkady]

no way, you are the one seeking guidance!

p.s. the irony of us hijacking is overwhelming at best.

[___1___]

[ QUOTE ]
p.s. the irony of us hijacking is overwhelming at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really...

MAxx gave what I believe is the correct answer.

___1___

[arkady]

&lt;-------- pwned

[J.R.]

thanks to everyone who took the time, on or off topic (but especially those on topic).

I pretty much always check here (being more inlined to bet v. looser guys or when I am raising an open limp, not an open raise with AK). They don't fold underpairs often enough in my expereince.

I like calling the river if he lead into me on an A or K.

I guess the reason for my post is that I still think I make too many "good folds" (actually they are probably bad a lot) and I generally find myself folding unimproved after I check behind in this and similar spots. But then i thought it sucks to 3-bet, bet and then surrender without any resistance, although this type of player will value bet lots of stuff on the river. So I figured i'd see what other ideas are out there. thanks to all again. unfortunately, I still feel unease with the best river play when lead into getting 5.5-1 (I think /images/graemlins/smile.gif, sorry about the pot mistakes in the OP), but think I still lean towards a fold.

[kiddo]

Do I get you right? This is your default play?

You 3bet AK preflop against UTG raising 15% preflop.

Flop is QJx. He check. You bet, he call.
Turn is QJxx. He check. You check.
River is QJxxx. He bet. You fold.

[J.R.]

I know, that's why I posted this. basically, I think I need to call the river if I check, but rarely do it. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

What do I beat KT, AT, AK, JTs? Assuming he has a decent aggression numbers (above 1 ish), is this a river call absent any kind of feel for his postflop bettting getting 5.5-1. I dunno, maybe I should call cause it feels uncertain and its good for the image. If the board is less connected the call is much easier (so perhaps is a turn bet) but that QJ combo hits a lot of hands and a 15 pfr utg isn't too frisky on average. I suck and can't think straight about this kinda hand. swedes rule at poker, give me the winning player's line here please.

[MecosKing]

Hey JR

I dunno, i think people talking about this are kindof giving too wide of a range of hands to the raiser. He is a 24%er, which means he is a good deal tighter than most players at the table. A 24%er will often times not come in with cheeze like JT (s or o) UTG, or stuff like A9s, JQ, etc. I mean am i the only one that thinks a 24%er is pretty tight?

That being said, he is probably a TAG...Which means that he is unlikely to just call a flop bet if he has a good peice of it, unless hes decided that your sufficiently LAGgy that he can make you payoff on a turn CR, in the event that he has a monster, like an overpair, or top 2, etc, etc. If he had even KJ, hed probably either lead to see where hes at, or else CR you and lead, if he thought his hand was good.

The flop call and turn check seems pretty weak to me coming from a player with those stats. Mind you, if he was your usual 40%, 1.2ish LAP, i would be MUCH more inclined to check than i would against a TAG, because LAPS often play like muppets, and are often strong-when-weak, and weak-when-strong. Because they are more passive they think they can extract extra bets with CRs... so to them, I check.

The TAG playing this way though, Suggests a weak draw like AK, AT, or an underpair that he is willing to put a bet in on the flop with, and on the river if the turn gets checked, but not if it doesnt.

Since TAGs are generally weak when weak and strong when strong, id probly bet here, then check behind if called.

If he's got TT or 99, and you are planning on calling the river anyway, then you are better off betting the turn, and giving him a chance to muck. Also, if he has AT, AK, or KT, you want him outta there, and you dont want him to bluff the river, and put you to a difficult decision to call or not- you got position! YOU are the one that should be putting HIM to the decisions here!

my 2 cents.

[J.R.]

[ QUOTE ]

Just a guess, but I think my equity is a somewhere in the 33-37% (no pokerstove at work ) range and I don't see opponent folding 2nd pair enough to bet this turn. I think it's fairly close on the turn, but I check b/c:

1) Opponent is not likely to fold 2nd pair
2) My equity is probably in the 35% range, and
3) In my experience, opponent will not bluff at you on the river when he misses with AK, KT, or JT.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is basically what I'm thinking as well. But the 3-bet, bet, check, fold line doesn't feel right and I wonder how sure we can be concerning #1 and #3. A small pair doesn't need to fold that often or KT (or AK) doesn't need to get frisky for a turn bet to be better and the 3-bet and board kinda set themselves up for some flop action (unlikely WA/WB) and thus not too well for a turn check-raise, no?

[Victor]

my line here is to bet. if my opp is a routine checkraiser then i check. but for the most part i play against loose mofos and i want them to make a mistake with 88 or call with a10.

after the turn bet a river bet is mandatory unless you improve.

edit: i meant a river check.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
If he check-raises the turn I check-fold unimproved, calling a rivered A or K and raising a T

[/ QUOTE ]

this is def the right way to play against an unkown. with reads this can be an easy fold.

[J.R.]

I agree with ___1___, I think a 15 pfr raises soemthing like AKs-ATs(&amp;o), JJ-77 (ruling out AA-QQ, per no PF cap), KQs-KTs, QJs, QTs, JTs, KQo, KJ, maybe a shade lighter on the bottom side of these hands.

[ QUOTE ]
The TAG playing this way though, Suggests a weak draw like AK, AT, or an underpair that he is willing to put a bet in on the flop with, and on the river if the turn gets checked, but not if it doesnt.

Since TAGs are generally weak when weak and strong when strong, id probly bet here, then check behind if called.


[/ QUOTE ]

So you think hands like 88, 99, TT, KJ, AJ fold to a turn bet, or is he rasiing something other than the hands above?

[ALL1N]

I don't think the straightforward player you describe even considers betting the river with AT here, and he CR's KT on the flop.

You've got 1 vote for checking behind and folding to an unimproved river, or calling river A or K (raising T).

[MecosKing]

I think 88, 99 and quite possibly TT may fold to a turn bet if the guy is tight. After all, what can a 99 beat? Besides 88, and maybe 77, there is only one hand he can beat here, and and that is precisely your hand- a thinking player, IMHO, may very well make a 'good laydown' here. An AJ or KJ is a little better, and also can improve easier, so a decent J will probably stick around- In headsup pots, a strong 2nd pair hand is often a payoff hand, esp. without an ace on the board.

What i was saying is that if he DID have a big J (or Q obv), and hes a TAGgy player, i dont think that he'd have played it this way... He'd probably have led or CRed or something instead of going into calling station mode. Splitting the pot with another AK in this situation or losing to 88 or AT when you couldve used your position to make him muck is a disaster IMHO. And anyways, werent you saying that you planned to call a river bet? I mean, if your already willing to pay one bet to see what he holds, why not pay it on the turn instead of the river, to see if you can fold him out?

Haha..anyways im shure im totally off and he probly had pocket Queens--but this is the line id take on a player like the posted read suggests he is.

[ALL1N]

[ QUOTE ]
I think 88, 99 and quite possibly TT may fold to a turn bet if the guy is tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

A "bookish" postflop player most certainly does not call the flop with TT-88 with the intent of folding to a turn bet.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

I think a 15 pfr raises soemthing like AKs-ATs(&amp;o), JJ-77 (ruling out AA-QQ, per no PF cap), KQs-KTs, QJs, QTs, JTs, KQo, KJ, maybe a shade lighter on the bottom side of these hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I'm a 15% PFR and yup, that's pretty much my range. I don't play QTs or JTs every time though.

[ QUOTE ]

So you think hands like 88, 99, TT, KJ, AJ fold to a turn b


[/ QUOTE ]

If UTG is me, 88-TT could well be gone on the flop but if not I'm calling down. KJ and AJ are hanging on the whole way most of the time.

Guy.