Poor Record HU, Cause for Concern?

[PartySNGer]

Long time lurker, but first time posting. Got a question that's bugging me.

First off I moved up to the Party $109s about 10 days ago and I started out 4-tabling, then moved to 6, and now 8. I am very happy with my stats: 167 tournies, 41.32% ITM, 14.27% ROI, however one thing that is bugging me is the following:

69 money finishes, 15 1sts, 25 2nds, 29 3rds

15-25 HU and also a great deal of thirds.

Now, HU I usually start with a deficit as I've had 0-2500 chips 8 times, 2500-4000 13 times, 4000-6000 12 times, 6000-7500 4 times, and 7500+ only 3.

I play extremely tight early on, as I like to preserve my stack until 50/100 blinds unless I get a real doubling opportunity with a set or overpair, then I tend to play fairly aggressive. I think I tend to get a lot of cheap money finishes where I am shortstacked and another shortstack goes out 4th, which probably accounts for an overabundance of thirds.

So my question is this: is the distribution of money finishes a cause for concern or should I take my 14% ROI for as long as I can maintain it and be happy?

[beeyjay]

My assumption is that you can't maintain this ROI for very long with this distribution. Over a significant sample with these results I would point first at your bubble play being too weak as the culprit. In this case though its really hard to say anything from such a small sample size.

[jgunnip]

Did you have this problems at lower levels? If not, it could just be a little variance. You're probably just a couple of hands away from haveing a very even distribution. Now after 500 SNGs if your top three distribution looks like 50-95-95 then you should be concerned.

[citanul]

for the next say hundred times you get to heads up, keep a log of how many chips you started with and if you won or lost. compare your expected equity to your results. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

citanul

or, if you have the time, go find that data from the games so far at this level.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Now, HU I usually start with a deficit as I've had 0-2500 chips 8 times, 2500-4000 13 times, 4000-6000 12 times, 6000-7500 4 times, and 7500+ only 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

My quick finger-counting math says you should have expected about 16 1sts given this distribution. 15 is obviously well within normal variance range.

As others have stated, usually the problem here starts with you bubble play. Aggressive bubble play will often lead to you having the big stack ITM and HU.

I still have yet to master this concept (I see the same type of distribution in my results), so unfortunately I'm not the best person to give advice on how to fix it.

[shejk]

Spend some time thinking about your headsup game. That's never wrong.

About your post, you seem to think that those 40 headsup games with really high blinds, what can it be, 500 hands, is a significant enough sample size to say somehing about your headsup game. If you think a bit about that, you'll probably come to the conclusion that it is not that unlikely that random chance will be a much much bigger contributor to the spread between firsts and seconds.

[Blarg]

Agreed.

[PartySNGer]

It is definitely possible that my bubble play is too tight.

Say, I was 4 handed with even stacks, 200/400 on the button I am probably pushing with A5+, K7+, QJ+, JT+, and and pair over 4, is this too tight?

A lot of times 4 handed with me having say 1500 chips and a shortstack at 900 I will fold everything but very big hands.

These are just 2 examples, is there a post or FAQ here detailing solid bubbble standards? That would be a tremendous help as bubble play is probably the culprit here. I think I am generally a solid HU player, at the $55s I was 71-52 HU and I started with slightly less chips on average.

[GoldenHorde]

These statistics mean nothing you are dealing with a completely insignificant sample size. Just looking over some of my stats i've won 14/16 at one point and lost 9/10, if I were to draw conclusions from any set of games including those streaks I would be way off.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Say, I was 4 handed with even stacks, 200/400 on the button I am probably pushing with A5+, K7+, QJ+, JT+, and and pair over 4, is this too tight?

[/ QUOTE ]

Much too tight.

[ QUOTE ]
A lot of times 4 handed with me having say 1500 chips and a shortstack at 900 I will fold everything but very big hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is likely a problem too. You still need to be looking for places to steal, especially if the small stack is on your left.

[ QUOTE ]
These are just 2 examples, is there a post or FAQ here detailing solid bubbble standards?

[/ QUOTE ]

About every other post in here is about the bubble. Just read the first page or two and I think you will be enlightened.

[PartySNGer]

OK, so assuming even stacks, 4-handed, 200/400 blinds and its folded to you on the button, what are you pushing with?

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, so assuming even stacks, 4-handed, 200/400 blinds and its folded to you on the button, what are you pushing with?

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't imagine any opponents I'm not pushing A2 or 22 against. If one or both of them seem tight this can easily start approaching an "any two" situation.

[shejk]

No mention of suited connectors? Man man, 67s is like 43% vs AK.