holdem hypothetical

[mother_brain]

Just thought of this.

You have AA UTG. All players will call you and you must go all in or fold. All other players will call if you go all in and all stacks are 100.

What number of seats must be filled for this it change from +EV to -EV

[lightw1thoutheat]

i could be wrong about this but...

aces are the best, and have great equity over each other hand. your pot equity decreases as more players enter the pot. So, when the number of people increases, you win fewer pots, but they are worth more. It is always better (in terms of EV) to have more people call you in this situation.

[mother_brain]

I disagree. At some point you will become less than a fifty percent favorite. Say if you are a 35 percent favorite from the preflop to win the hand. You play ten times. You lose money. This must be -EV. I think...

[diebitter]

I'm not sure of the EV numbers, but losing more does not necessarily mean less profit. Remember you get better odds for more bettors.

Say it's 2 of you, you win 70% of the time, say
In 10 games at 100 each and you therefore start with 1000, you win 7 and lose 3, therefore get 1400 for 7 winners, - 300 for 3 losers, you have 1100 net.

say it's 3 people, and you win at 60% now
in 10 games at 100 each, you win 1800 (3x100), and lose 400
- you have 1400 net

4 people at 50%, you win 5x400 (2000), and lose 500 - 1500 net

obviously you need the real EV, but you get the idea I hope.

[LetYouDown]

It is +EV in almost every situation, unless you're up against another AA. Just because you're less than 50% doesn't mean it isn't +EV. If you're all in with the same stacks vs. 2 players, you only need a 33.4% chance to be +EV. For example:

As Ac 42234 20.97 156536 77.73 2606 1.29 0.211
Ks Kc 34742 17.25 164028 81.45 2606 1.29 0.174
Qs Qc 26112 12.97 172658 85.74 2606 1.29 0.131
Js Jc 19804 9.83 178966 88.87 2606 1.29 0.100
Ts Tc 14986 7.44 183784 91.26 2606 1.29 0.076
9s 9c 11434 5.68 187336 93.03 2606 1.29 0.058
8s 8c 9864 4.90 188906 93.81 2606 1.29 0.050
7s 7c 9588 4.76 189182 93.94 2606 1.29 0.049
6c 5c 15946 7.92 182824 90.79 2606 1.29 0.080
4c 3c 14060 6.98 184710 91.72 2606 1.29 0.071

[Indiana]

In a cash game it cannot be -EV, but what if the winner takes all in a SNG...then it can be -EV possibly...I never fold AA preflop and the more callers the better, although when I get more than 2 callers I start to stand up and grab my jacket and head for the door...

Indiana

[LetYouDown]

It can't? Not exactly a common example, but I wouldn't say it can't.

As Ac 100 0.05 198419 98.53 2857 1.42 0.008
Ad Ah 14858 7.38 183661 91.20 2857 1.42 0.081
Ks Kc 43099 21.40 158263 78.59 14 0.01 0.214
Qs Qc 33325 16.55 168037 83.44 14 0.01 0.165
Js Jc 25773 12.80 175589 87.19 14 0.01 0.128
Ts Tc 19659 9.76 181703 90.23 14 0.01 0.098
9s 9c 14961 7.43 186401 92.56 14 0.01 0.074
8s 8c 12471 6.19 188891 93.80 14 0.01 0.062
7s 7c 12718 6.32 188644 93.68 14 0.01 0.063
6c 5c 21555 10.70 179807 89.29 14 0.01 0.107

[Indiana]

I am trying to provide guidance here, not cook up some off the wall and highly improbable example as to how AA could be -EV. However, I did say "cant" so lets see...In this example what is the probability of AA winning? I do not understand this table.

Indiana

[LetYouDown]

The problem is, this is how misconceptions begin...not through blatently false statements, but through well-intentioned, yet inaccurate statements. He could be setting himself up for a long term proposition bet where he'll take A-A against 9 hands that his opponent can decide. You never know. I had every intention of doing it once, although I wanted to be the one selecting the other 9 hands.

In the table above, the far right column is the win %age. The A-A that shares the suit of most other hands wins < 1% of the time. The "offsuit" aces will win only 8% of the time. A win %age > 10 is required for this to be a +EV situation.

[Indiana]

The reason that your probabilities are so low is because you have two AA hands in there. Also, you are not counting the times that you split with that other AA hand (which is very very profitable)...and what about ties??? you must account for this to build a probability distribution...So you have absolutely not shown that this is a -EV situation, and i do not believe that it is.

Indiana

[LetYouDown]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason that your probabilities are so low is because you have two AA hands in there. Also, you are not counting the times that you split with that other AA hand (which is very very profitable)...and what about ties??? you must account for this to build a probability distribution...So you have absolutely not shown that this is a -EV situation, and i do not believe that it is.

Indiana

[/ QUOTE ]
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 100 0.05 198419 98.53 2857 1.42 0.008
Ad Ah 14858 7.38 183661 91.20 2857 1.42 0.081
Ks Kc 43099 21.40 158263 78.59 14 0.01 0.214
Qs Qc 33325 16.55 168037 83.44 14 0.01 0.165
Js Jc 25773 12.80 175589 87.19 14 0.01 0.128
Ts Tc 19659 9.76 181703 90.23 14 0.01 0.098
9s 9c 14961 7.43 186401 92.56 14 0.01 0.074
8s 8c 12471 6.19 188891 93.80 14 0.01 0.062
7s 7c 12718 6.32 188644 93.68 14 0.01 0.063
6c 5c 21555 10.70 179807 89.29 14 0.01 0.107

More Aligned (http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=&d=&h=As+Ac%0D%0AAd+Ah%0D%0AKs+Kc%0D%0AQs+Q c%0D%0AJs+Jc%0D%0ATs+Tc%0D%0A9s+9c%0D%0A8s+8c%0D%0 A7s+7c%0D%0A6c+5c)

Believe now?

[Indiana]

Hey thanks. So is that far right hand column the actual EV? It must not be because none of them are negative...

Indiana

[operaman]

so if 10 people sit at a table (everybody allin) and can pick their cards out, the first person to pick can be virtualy locked out of the hand.