The damn bubble again.

[1C5]

I have been getting my ass kicked at the 33s tonite and decisions like this are not helping.
Not sure what to do here. Eastbay's program said it is too close to have a clear winner. Player was tight and had never min rasied before. Weak hand or sneaky trap? Hero's play? Notice the stack sizes. With Eastbay's tool, TT is a clear fold and QQ is a clear push but JJ is right on the border line.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t890)
UTG (t1435)
Hero (t900)
SB (t4775)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t400</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ?

[Karak567]

I would push and it wouldn't even be close.

[gasgod]

Must be right to push.

GG

[Maulik]

eek, i've posted 5 handed and I wasn't sure, but here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




if you fold this, eek

[shejk]

IC5, the minraise probably means he don't want to play mr bigstack. I'd say he has some crappy hand like 66s or AT.

[zaphod]

Interesting. TT is a clear fold?
I know i would have a hard time folding that..

What other reads did you have on the minraiser. What other raises had he been using so far(had he been pushing?)
I think this is usefull information if you should find out if it is a weak hand or a trap. A player that have been frequently pushing and then suddenly minraises is something to look out for..

What hand ranges have you used for the minraiser then when you used Eastbay's program?

[DeathbySuckout]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting. TT is a clear fold?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is because TT does not have any pretty pictures on it like JJ does, so it doesn't look as good when you flip it over in a push.

Just remember the 3 Ps of SnGs:
PUSH
PRETTY
PICTURES

[Winwood]

[ QUOTE ]
With Eastbay's tool, TT is a clear fold and QQ is a clear push but JJ is right on the border line.


[/ QUOTE ]

I've not used this tool, and far be it from me to question it....

Can someone please explain why TT is a clear fold?

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With Eastbay's tool, TT is a clear fold and QQ is a clear push but JJ is right on the border line.


[/ QUOTE ]

I've not used this tool, and far be it from me to question it....

Can someone please explain why TT is a clear fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Cause on this forum it is cool to fold big hands.

[Winwood]

Gotcha.

No, but seriously...

[bluefeet]

[ QUOTE ]
IC5, the minraise probably means he don't want to play mr bigstack. I'd say he has some crappy hand like 66s or AT.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with shejk. The BB is on him next. His minraise has BB almost covered. It looks to me like he's asking politely of you and SB... "I have a hand that can stand up to BB's random dealing. Would you guys mind if I please took a crack at him? I'm getting a little short over here myself".

You reply.........."PUSH!"

[introv]

Because you are in trouble to more hands. If your opponents range includes tt or lower and aj or lower then your equity is far higher with jj than with tt.

Obviously if your opponents range is qq+, ak then it isnt going to make any difference.

[shejk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With Eastbay's tool, TT is a clear fold and QQ is a clear push but JJ is right on the border line.


[/ QUOTE ]

I've not used this tool, and far be it from me to question it....

Can someone please explain why TT is a clear fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Eastbays program doesn't provide answers unless you ask a specific question, including hand ranges. OP didn't post which range he used to calculate this. I believe a range which makes this a fold with TT is too tight. I also believe you have some FE when you push here.

[lehighguy]

If you didn't push I suggest quiting poker.

[1C5]

Don't worry, I pushed and was called by KK. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[valenzuela]

Eastbay program this, Eastbay program that..if some idiot suddenly min-raises fot the first time in history Im mucking.

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
Eastbay program this, Eastbay program that..if some idiot suddenly min-raises fot the first time in history Im mucking.

[/ QUOTE ]

good idea most of the time

edit: I'm not mucking JJ here.

[Blarg]

I'd push this sucker. Everybody's almost obligated to bet with almost anything here, but you know for sure that you at least actually have a hand. That puts you at a nice advantage over Mr. Any Two or even someone with a nice hand like AQ or so. It's also nice that comparing this call to a steal attempt(which you're going to have to do soon probably whether you like it or not even with crap), you'd only get the blinds with a successful one of those, whereas here you get the blinds plus possibly a good bit more.

There's a lot of potential upside here, and you have a hand. It's not all that likely you'll see a better situation than this before the game is over.

[Winwood]

So what you're saying is, if I specify that my opponents will only call with AA or better, then TT stands no chance...make sense except shouldn't there somewhere be a variable that says how often your opponent gets one of their 'target' hands? I mean, I'll play against an opponent like that everyday, and twice on Sundays...

[curtains]

Folding JJ here is so terrible it's really unbelievable.

[valenzuela]

If a player has never min-raised before a fold aint unbeliable.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
If a player has never min-raised before a fold aint unbeliable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cmon man have you never seen a medium stack make a small raise so that if the big stack comes over the top he can fold, yet he can play against the smaller stacks?

[valenzuela]

the thing is you have 0 FE,ill try ICM before I keep defending my position.

[valenzuela]

JJ needs to win..56% of the time..oh well I was wrong.

[Blarg]

You've got great fold equity against the blinds, because they have to consider that they're not just challenging one guy, but both of you. So a great deal of the time you're only seeing the blinds play if they have extremely good hands and are basically just up against the original bettor.

[valenzuela]

I mean againt UTG, but yeah I thought I needed like a 65% chance of winning with JJ to make the push profitable.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
TT is a clear fold and QQ is a clear push but JJ is right on the border line.


[/ QUOTE ]

99 MIGHT be a clear fold, TT is DEFINITELY NOT a clear fold. JJ is a CLEAR PUSH. TT i would push probably 60% of the time. you cant exactly sneak when you have the same stack as the BB. i still dont even think 99 would be all too clear of a fold here. you DO have some FE here. not a LOT, but enough to not rule it out completely. holla

[HC5831]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

BB (t890)
UTG (t1435)
Hero (t900)
SB (t4775)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J.
UTG raises to t400, Hero ?

[/ QUOTE ]

auto-push

HC

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
TT is a clear fold and QQ is a clear push but JJ is right on the border line.


[/ QUOTE ]

99 MIGHT be a clear fold, TT is DEFINITELY NOT a clear fold. JJ is a CLEAR PUSH. TT i would push probably 60% of the time. you cant exactly sneak when you have the same stack as the BB. i still dont even think 99 would be all too clear of a fold here. you DO have some FE here. not a LOT, but enough to not rule it out completely. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Im pushing down to 99 here...What does EB's tool say about increasing likelihood of getting a finish higher than 3rd? Is it only based on chip equity's linear relationship to $ equity? What about stack size doubling's correlation with increased FE in order to steal more blinds and its correlation with higher finishes?

chirp* chirp*

PUSH...this falls out of the ICM.