Bad call preflop with 44?

[LouDogg33]

Just recently sat down at the table, so I don't really have any reads. Sorry. Comments on all streets would be appreciated.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG folds, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (22 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO folds, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (19 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

<font color="blue"> With all the betting here, the possible bigger set, and the Q making a possible straight. I'm check calling this one down. </font>

Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (23 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 27 BB

[Ianco15]

You never should have been in the pot.

[LouDogg33]

Not even with 5 people already committed and only 2.5 extra bets to call? If I hit my set like I did, chances are I take down a huge pot.

[istewart]

Why?

He's getting 10.5:2.5 immediate odds.

If MP3 definitely caps and the first two limpers and the BB all fold (which is no guarantee), he's getting 15.5:3.5.

[matt42s]

The preflop call was bad. You got lucky and it ended up 5 way, with some dead money so it is probably +EV but is the type of play that sends your variance through the roof.

With the broadway overs, flush and straight draws, I think protecting by betting and hoping mp3 raises is in order. By going for the check raise, you're planning on trapping most of the field for more bets which gives them all good odds to draw out on the turn. the 3 bet looks good (the fact that BB and Button called 2 cold is scary, and says that leading by betting would probably have produced the same result in this case - that doesn't make the c/r right though!)
Agree with the turn thoughts, the pot is huge - an Ace rag gutshot has odds to call a raise (I know, an Ace rag gutshot has no business here but I find it useful to work out whether weak drawing hands will be calling or folding)

[matt42s]

How committed were UTG and MP2?

[LouDogg33]

Ur right. Not very.

[LouDogg33]

Here's the results. Luckily it all worked out.


Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
BB has Ah Kh (one pair, kings).
MP3 has Ad As (one pair, aces).
Button has Qs Ac (one pair, queens).
Hero has 4d 4h (three of a kind, fours).
Outcome: Hero wins 27 BB. </font>

[SoftcoreRevolt]

Forget the PF call. I don't like it, but it's whatever.

Your turn and river play is terrible.

You have a set and ten outs to a full house if you are behind. (HINT, You aren't.)

You lead this turn, and three bet. If capped, then you can start thinking bigger set. If Button were to raise out of nowhere, then you probably are behind a straight.

But never assume you are behind a set to that sort of flop play.

[LouDogg33]

Thank you sir, may I please have another!?

[Buckmulligan]

preflop is fine.

[Duerig]

I would fold preflop. Also I think I would put in one more raise on the turn. Villain will have AK or AA fairly often.

[ArturiusX]

To those saying fold preflop.... Are you guys nuts?!

[Buckmulligan]

[ QUOTE ]
To those saying fold preflop.... Are you guys nuts?!

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think folding is nutes but calling is probably +EV

[ArturiusX]

The great thing about 44 is that we don't need mad postflop skills to get value.

We hit a set or maybe an OESD, the hand plays itself. The implied odds are terrific and I call this everytime.

[istewart]

Calling is definitely +EV.

[Duerig]

[ QUOTE ]
To those saying fold preflop.... Are you guys nuts?!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah maybe, but here's what I was thinking. You're probably going to put in 4 SB to see this flop 4 handed. 4 SB = 2 BB, since it's about 1:8 to flop a set, you need implied odds around ~ 16 BB for this to be profitable. I believe that is 16 BB of profit, not total pot size. With 2 people loving their hands it looks like you're going to get to the turn / river 3 handed, which means if you need 16 BB of profit, you need a 24 BB pot, 3 ways (you put in 8 of the BB). That is f'ing huge, and I don't think in general you have the implied odds for this call. Now if there were a few more cold callers in between, I think this call definitely starts to become profitable. Thoughts?

[istewart]

wtf?

[ QUOTE ]
He's getting 10.5:2.5 immediate odds.

If MP3 definitely caps and the first two limpers and the BB all fold (which is no guarantee), he's getting 15.5:3.5

[/ QUOTE ]

You're getting in the area of 5:1ish. You barely have to make up anything. Like 2BBs.

[Duerig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To those saying fold preflop.... Are you guys nuts?!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah maybe, but here's what I was thinking. You're probably going to put in 4 SB to see this flop 4 handed. 4 SB = 2 BB, since it's about 1:8 to flop a set, you need implied odds around ~ 16 BB for this to be profitable. I believe that is 16 BB of profit, not total pot size. With 2 people loving their hands it looks like you're going to get to the turn / river 3 handed, which means if you need 16 BB of profit, you need a 24 BB pot, 3 ways (you put in 8 of the BB). That is f'ing huge, and I don't think in general you have the implied odds for this call. Now if there were a few more cold callers in between, I think this call definitely starts to become profitable. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Look I just quoted myself. Ok after some more thought, I think I am skewing my numbers to support my inital reaction. A few things:

1) &gt; 4 people will probably see this flop
2) &gt; 3 people will probably see the turn
3) The pot won't have to be 24 BB to get 16 BB of profit
4) Even if it did, 24 BB isn't "f'ing huge"
5) I am a douchebag

[Ianco15]

OK. The preflop call was okay if you're gonna play it correctly after the flop. The problem I have with the preflop call is that hero didn't get max value from the hand even with a perfect flop because he was scared of an over set.

[Buckmulligan]

[ QUOTE ]
The great thing about 44 is that we don't need mad postflop skills to get value.

We hit a set or maybe an OESD, the hand plays itself. The implied odds are terrific and I call this everytime.


[/ QUOTE ]

good points.

[istewart]

I think Hero slowed down too early, but if MP3 is competent, on a KQJ board it's not extremely unlikely that Hero ran into another set.

[ArturiusX]

[ QUOTE ]
OK. The preflop call was okay if you're gonna play it correctly after the flop. The problem I have with the preflop call is that hero didn't get max value from the hand even with a perfect flop because he was scared of an over set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling down isn't the worst decision, I probably would have raised again on the turn though.

Hero didn't need to extract max value from this hand, only 2BB, which has been proved.

[Buckmulligan]

this post was originially really stupid, which is why i have editited it to say this.

[grjr]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Hero slowed down too early, but if MP3 is competent, on a KQJ board it's not extremely unlikely that Hero ran into another set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, if everyone caps the turn he's almost got odds for his one-outer. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Brain]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero didn't need to extract max value from this hand, only 2BB, which has been proved.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true, but let's not get those kind of thoughts into our new players' heads. I'm definitely leading and 3betting that turn.

[JDErickson]

I originally was going to say the PF call sucked. But then I looked again at the hand. With all the players in and the pot this big it would be a sin not to call here I think.

[Weatherhead03]

Bad call pre-flop yes