2001 WSOP $1500 Stud/8 Tourney Hand

[Bill Murphy]

I've posted this hand a couple of times before, as it's the most important hand of poker I've played so far, but I think I made a couple of typos in Rick's thread below. I also stated there that I made the best play I ever have during this hand, but now I'm not so sure.

I wish I had Fossilman's total recall, but this is the best I can do. I'm fairly sure that the 2-3 cards folded on 3rd were irrelevant, as were my opponents suits.

I believe we're down to the last three tables, all in the money, 5-6 handed.

Me: 6hAd/3d
Mike Sexton[1989 Stud8 Champ]: 75/8
Larry Bernstein[solid Stud pro from back East]: 63/A

Can't remember the limits, but I was fairly short. Mike & Larry had more, but not a whole lot more. Mike prolly 2-3 BB more, Larry 4-5 more.

Anyway, I limped, either Mike[next to act] or Larry raised[90% sure it was Mike], and me & the other called.

4th
Me: 6hAd/3d7d
Mike: 75/86
Larry: 63/A7

Whoever raised, bet, and was called. I have 1.5 BB left.

5th
Me: 6hAd/3d7d6d
Mike: 75/868
Larry: 36/A72

Mike chkd, Larry chkd, I chk, my supposed "best play ever".

6th
Me: 6hAd/3d7d6dJd
Mike: 75/8685
Larry: 36/A724

Mike checks, Larry bets, I raise a half bet more all-in, Mike folds as he knows Larry will re-raise him near all in[Larry may have had some kinda flsh draw showing]. Larry catches an 8 on the river that Mike woulda caught[!].

All comments welcome, esp. regarding 5th St play. Did Larry chk thinking I'd bet, so he could raise? Should I have bet, hoping Mike folds fearing a raise, or is that FPS?

Mike told me the next day he calls a bet from me on 5th, so he'da called a raise as well, but I don't know what he'd've done on 6th facing an allin four-flush & a bet from a possible wheel, holding two pair and a dead low/open ender. Mike seemed to think Larry wouldn't have raised me on 5th, nor my .5 bet on 6th. Accurate or fuzzy?

Did I miss an extra .75BB from Mike on 5th, or was I properly cautious w/my last few chips?

I do like to brag about this hand & tourney[7th place=$10,800 /forums/images/icons/cool.gif , Larry=4th, Mike~13th], but I believe it also illustrates how tricky rough lows and multi-way action can be in this game /forums/images/icons/confused.gif /forums/images/icons/ooo.gif /forums/images/icons/crazy.gif . Again, fire away.

[AlanBostick]

I ran a sim at twodimes.net; here is the result. (I made up suits for the cards you didn't specify.)


<pre><font class="small">code:</font><hr>
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
7d 6d 3d Ah 6h 6699 178790 321190 20 15475 213204 46167 0.217
8s 5s 6c 7h 5h 0 290799 209201 0 0 256592 0 0.291
7s 6s Ac 2c 3h 26202 30391 469589 20 438358 15475 46167 0.492
</pre><hr>

It sure looks to me like checking on fifth street was exactly right. Your bet gets no one out, and it would cost you a net of 0.4 bets in equity. Take the free card.

Similarly, it looks like Larry made a mistake in not betting, because he passed on an opportunity to increase his equity by half a bet.

This of course neglect that this is a tournament with short stacks -- but makes your check even more important, because the bet you saved was even more valuable than the fractional bets you passed on at that point in the action.

It's easy to second-guess when you know what the cards are. It's much trickier when you have to guess, in the heat of battle. You did just fine, and more than just fine.

[Bill Murphy]

Actually, I had the Ad &amp; Mike had paired 8's, so:

7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ad 7d 6d 3d 6h 11483 259731 240241 28 18651 214096 42055 0.299
8s 5s 6c 8h 7h 0 225212 274786 2 0 255880 0 0.225
7s 6s Ac 2c 3h 13238 15027 484943 30 439294 18651 42055 0.475

But I don't think it changes your analysis much. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif BTW, how did you get the table formatted like that?

[AlanBostick]

BTW, how did you get the table formatted like that?

By using the UBB markup for "Code" (see the Instant UBB Code links on the message posting screen). -- "code" in square brackets at the start, "/code" in square brackets at the end.