Raising in the SB

[Pirc Defense]

Poster MSchmahl linked to this site Heads Up (http://mentorms.best.vwh.net/poker/he_ev_hand.html) in response to another thread. Based on the information there, would it be correct to raise with any hand that wins over 50% heads up, when it's folded to you in the SB? If not, what hands are eligible to be raised here? To be played?

Thanks in advance.

[Ed Miller]

Based on the information there, would it be correct to raise with any hand that wins over 50% heads up, when it's folded to you in the SB?

Well, basically the answer is no. Think about a no limit game where the stack sizes are much much greater than the blind sizes. Let's also assume that you have only two options... raise allin or fold. If you act first, what hands do you raise allin with?

Well, by your logic... perhaps any hand that wins over 50% heads up would be a good choice. But the problem with that is, your opponent isn't compelled to call. Indeed, he will only call with hands that beat the range of hands you would raise with more than 50% of the time. Thus, he would ensure that you are taking the worst of it.

So say you tighten up and only raise with the best 20% of your hands. Now your opponent can still beat you by only calling with hands that beat that range of hands more than 50% of the time. Indeed, it would be a losing strategy to raise allin with AA and KK, as your opponent could call only with AA. There is no strategy that wins.

This assumes that the blinds are very small compared to the stack sizes. Once the blinds become a significant portion of the stack sizes, then the caller is forced to become much looser, or he will be blinded away. So it is obvious that the size of the blinds with relation to the size of the bets is an important variable.

Next you have to observe your opponent's calling strategy. How often does he fold when you raise from the SB? When you raise from the SB, you are betting 1.5 SB to win a pot of 1.5 SB. You are getting 1-1 on your bet. Thus, if your opponent folds more than 50% of the time, you are showing an automatic profit and should raise every time with every hand (except if you think your opponent will catch on and adjust his play... in which case you have to hide your strategy a little bit). If your opponent folds 49% of the time, and never reraises you, then it is still probably correct to raise him every time, as you will almost make your money back by having him fold... and those times you don't... you sometimes will win at a later time in the hand.

Now assume that your opponent will pop you back with his better hands. Raising him every time with every hand is now not nearly so attractive, as you often have to pay another bet to see the flop... often with the worst of it.

I could go on... but suffice it to say... you choose your strategy of what hands to raise with based on the following factors:

1) The range of hands your opponent will fold immediately to your raise.
2) The range of hands your opponent will reraise you with.
3) Your ability to outplay your opponent after the flop.
4) The size of the blinds with relation to the size of the bet you must invest when you raise.

Clearly 50% is not always the right answer.

[Pirc Defense]

Majorkong,

What a great response. Thank you.

Your logic makes sense: it doesn't pay to raise x% of the time unless your opponent doesn't catch on to your strategy, which does not happen in practice.

Thanks again for taking the time to make such a responsive and complete post.

[Ed Miller]

Thank you. Another thing I thought I'd add...

The BB really doesn't have to be particularly "tight" at all to fold too much heads-up in this situation. If the BB is routinely folding hands like Q5o and 98o, then he is probably folding too much. I find that when I play online (which isn't often... I much prefer live play) that people in the BB tend to be too tight headsup against the SB. Thus, my default strategy headsup from the SB tends to be "raise every time" until I see the BB defending enough or popping me back.