The table LAG flops a draw vs. a rocky table captain, Party 250K

[woodguy]

Hello All,

Yesterday's Party 250K, still at original table.

I had built a nice stack lagging it up a little when the BB's were small, calling some PF raises in position and nailing some flops and stacking a couple of guys w/ big pairs, etc..

The villian in this hand kept telling me how lucky I was and bad I was playing, in fact he commented on most of the play, but really didn't like me or my style. I often came over top of bets on the flop for all of my opponents chips, mostly they folded, and I was running about 75% when they didn't. Sometimes I had a hand, sometimes I had a draw and sometimes I had dirt.

After showing down some winning trash I switch gears and showed down a couple of nice hands lately, so I think its time to LAG it up again.

I am the table leader w/ 6800, the rock who only plays premiums is 3rd w/ 5000.

My open raises were only getting called 25% of the time, but I had settled down for a few orbits before this.

BB=200

I raise to 600 in CO-1 w/ 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Rock on the button re pops it to 1200, I call.

flop (2700) J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I'm 80% that he has a big pair, and 80% that I'm getting called.

I push.

Too laggy?

Comments?

Regards,
Woodguy

[durron597]

Assuming no antes:

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=958648
pokenum -h 8d 6d - ah as -- jd 7d 4c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 4c Jd 7d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8d 6d 473 47.78 517 52.22 0 0.00 0.478
As Ah 517 52.22 473 47.78 0 0.00 0.522

Chips when fold:
8300

Chips when call/lose:
1800

Chips when call/win:
12100

Expected chips - call:
6721.34

Total expected chips (20% fold):
7037

I like the push.

[MLG]

pots gonna be to big for you to lay down your big draw anyway so you might as well get your FE and hope has AK.

[schwza]

i like it. give yourself a chance to move him off AK/TT.

[threepines]

Appreciate your analyses. The chips when fold figure you provide, though, is a typo.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
As Ah 517 52.22 473 47.78 0 0.00 0.522

[/ QUOTE ]

A /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/heart.gif is exactly what he had.

eerie.

Regards,
Woodguy

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm 80% that he has a big pair, and 80% that I'm getting called.

I push.

[/ QUOTE ]


That is a beautiful statement, hopefully your diamonds got there.

[Rduke55]

And did you hit?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As Ah 517 52.22 473 47.78 0 0.00 0.522

[/ QUOTE ]

A /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/heart.gif is exactly what he had.

eerie.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I decided that putting him on two non-diamond aces most accurately balanced the results of his possible range of hands. So I was 33% to guess right (17% if you care about order) /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[woodguy]

Durron and MLG nailed it right away.

I have the odds to get him all in, even if he has AA with the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. The only time I make a mistake is if he has two big diamonds, and I doubt that rocky is re-raising two big diamonds at me, he wants a premium pair to double through.


He called instantly with A /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Turn is a blank

River is 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and rocky goes ballistic /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I'm 43% if he has a big /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and 48% if he doesn't have a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (assuming he has a big pair)

I was suprised to see that even with no folding equity my push was correct given the size of the pot, and that in retrospect this is one of those "small edges", even though I think I'm a slight dog the $$$ in the pot makes it correct to get in here.

I thought I'd post it as there are always questions about "small edges for big chuncks of your stack", so I thought this would be a good example, win or lose.

It looked laggy, but was correct.

Regards,
Woodguy