Hand from 250k

[2005]

I'm planning on starting a "Hand of the Week" section on my website and this will be the first HOTW(converter messed up, sorry):

3 tables or so left in the Party 250k. Blinds 4/8k, I have 85k in BB, villain in CO has about 110k and has been very aggressive, stealing and restealing. Button has 1056(not a typo, he folded his SB leaving himself with 1056 chips).

Folded to CO, he raises to 20k. Button calls all in. SB folds. I have T /images/graemlins/club.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. I push.

Comments?

[IHateKeithSmart]

Interesting play. I know if I am in CO's position, I am more likely to lay down knowing I'll be able to see what you're restealing with (probably part of your thought process?).

Course, then I'm probably demoralized when I see T3o.

[durron597]

Have you restolen from the CO before?

[2005]

No, I haven't re-stolen from anyone in a long time bc I've been too short.

[2005]

[ QUOTE ]
I am more likely to lay down knowing I'll be able to see what you're restealing with (probably part of your thought process?).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the key part of the hand I think... the fact that he will get to see my hand, therefore he would be more likely to fold.

[woodguy]

Nice.

He guaranteed to see your hand so that will keep him off your BB a bit from now on , and if he's as aggro as you are saying, he's probably light and should lay down.

And you scoop 19K and race for the other 2K.

Fun.

DId it work?


Regards,
Woodguy

[2005]

I would actually pick up 22k b/c of the SB.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
No, I haven't re-stolen from anyone in a long time bc I've been too short.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I like it.

[2005]

flame me if you think it's stupid.

[woodguy]

Who is your target audience, and what are you trying to acheive with HOTW? (seriously, if there is one thing I am actually good at, marketing and selling)

Regards,
Woodguy

[PrayingMantis]

Nice one. The fact that CO knows he'll see your hand helps to your folding equity here, no doubt. The question is how exactly you're going to adapt in future hands to the fact he saw your trash here. But there are many ways to attack it.

This reminds me of a spot I was in a 1000 Euro live side tournament in Monte-Carlo, early-mid stages. From memory: UTG+1 raised, I called 2 seats left of him with 66, and a very short button went all-in (for less than UTG+1's raise) and left the table, he didn't care anymore I guess.

I flopped a set, and managed to get some money out of UTG+1 on the flop and turn (all into the side pot). On the river he bet at me and I raised all-in. He folded. The delaer started pushing the whole pot in my direction, but then villain insisted that I will show the hand, since there was one player all-in. Obviously I didn't want to show it. The dealer wasn't sure about it and called the floor. The decision was that the my hand should be shown, since there's a showdown with button's hand (who wasn't at the table even!) that was some off-suit garbage. Clearly UTG+1 was very happy with this decision.

A bit off-topic, but still an interesting spot I think.

[2005]

My target is people like you guys and other fans of poker. HOTW is kind of a site filler to encourage discussion and interest in the site.

[2005]

Nobody has a problem with this play?

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody has a problem with this play?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is very much dependent on your ability to use the impact of this hand on CO play in future spots. If you know what you're doing (you might even tilt CO or something), then I don't see a problem.

There was this hand at the WSOP where Fossilman reraised all-in in against a steal and showed his garbage. He didn't have to show it, like you did here. The fact that you know you will HAVE to show it, makes you look even more crazy I think.

[sirio11]

If the CO is just aggressive raising, but not aggressive calling, then I love your play. If he is the type that doesn't like to be pushed around, and is capable of calling with KJ or A9s then I don't. Of course the strange play by the button make the play even better.

[DonT77]

Hey Gavin,

I think it depends a lot on your table image and his propensity to call. If he thinks that your range of hands to make this play are AA and KK only, then I think you pull this off. But if he thinks you are capable of pulling this play with 'any 2' and if he is the type that would call all-in with a hand like KJo, then you might be in trouble.

Do you know how he built his stack up? Was it by calling all-in bets when he was getting the worst of it and then sucking out?

[woodguy]

That sounds allright.

Is your site interactive?

If so then you may want to format it as "Hand of the Week, how would you play it?", and have your site visitors put in their two cents (or pick from a list of options), and give away something to the winner....it will help with repeat traffic to get your # of visits up.

Regards,
Woodguy

[2005]

it's going to be interactive. It's still in its infancy, so we're working on stuff like comments on blog, forum, etc.

[A_PLUS]

I dont think the play is without risk (beyond getting called obviously). You are basically going to be giving up some future preflop folding equity, and gaining protection of your blinds, and some post flop folding equity when rags flop (he's nuts, he plays any two). Did this enter your thought process at all? Was there something about the table dynamics, where you thought the maniac image would be beneficial?

[2005]

well, I generally have a maniac image as it is. But after this, people were pushing on me w/ KQ, A8, Q2, all kinds of junk.

[RavenJackson]

[ QUOTE ]
villain in CO has about 110k and has been very aggressive, stealing and restealing

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the play if you think the villian is capable of laying his hand down. Your description makes me hesitate.

The most interesting component of this hand is that the forced show-down has a positive impact on your folding equity and may increase the action on your future hands.

HOTW's are only gay when they are a list of "bad beats".

[mts]

weekly freeroll tournys for members and 1 hand per week analysis that each member chooses (100+ buyin min). :P

this post is in the wrong spot

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
it's going to be interactive. It's still in its infancy, so we're working on stuff like comments on blog, forum, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

how about just post interesting hands. Once a week or otherwise. You play enought that there should be plenty of material.

[A_PLUS]

Very interesting move. If you are confident that you can adjust your calling range more appropriately than your opponents will adjust there pushing range, it is great.

How low do you think you would have gone in calling a push from the LAG in one of the next few orbits?

[CieloAzor]

I love this play when the time's right. Looks good.

[2005]

I called w/ A9, guy had KQ

[A_PLUS]

Very nice, I like the idea of changing the table dynamics, and banking on being able to adjust better than the other players.

And they say your overrated.

[2005]

CO folded, I picked up the 22k side pot and lost to button's JJ.

[locutus2002]

Overall I don't like it.


Side pot is laying ~1.6:1, more than 3:2. He can call this with the bottom 2/3 of what he thinks hero could make this play with.

Its hard to imagine that hero is better than 1:2 in the actual hand if villain calls. Hero needs to make villain fold more than ~40% of the time to make this positive EV (from chip point of view). I think this is alot here.

2005 is a pretty respected player. Villain may not get a better chance from this player, and 2005 is capable of putting a move on here with trash.

Both players are too short stacked to be considering their tournament equity much at this point.

[locutus2002]

ERROR IN MY MATH

Overall I don't like it.


Side pot is laying ~1.6:1, more than 3:2. He can call this with the bottom 2/3 of what he thinks hero could make this play with.

Its hard to imagine that hero is better than 1:2 in the actual hand if villain calls. Hero needs to make villain fold more than ~60% of the time to make this positive EV (from chip point of view). I think this is alot here.

[~60% -->> If villain folds then hero wins 20 60% of the time. If villain calls then hero loses 85 X 1/3 X 40% of the time ]
2005 is a pretty respected player. Villain may not get a better chance from this player, and 2005 is capable of putting a move on here with trash.

Both players are too short stacked to be considering their tournament equity much at this point.

[ron dogg]

I was watching this hand and was howling when I saw the hand shown down. He was an aggressive player, and the way the stack sizes worked out, he still had a very workable stack if he folded his hand to you. He might have considered this "a protected pot" in a way regardless that the button had basically no chips here which gives you some strange equity. I honestly don't think him being able to see your hand factors in here at all.

I will say that I would like to see just a little higher hand value than T3o for this play. 87s? No problem at all even 52s would be better just in case he makes a donk call with AT or KT. My only concern is that if called, your cards have to be as live as possible.

I watched another hand, that I have to ask you about. . .

You found yourself short somewhere around 29k in the bb. Someone raises in mid position a little more than 2x the bb. You smooth call and push on a 9d 7d 4? flop. Pure stop and go? I think the blinds were 3k/6k at the time. Remember the hand?

Nice job yesterday, tough break with the Q2 vs TT hand.

Ron-

[PrayingMantis]

According to this logic, Gavin has no resteal opportunites against CO, with these stack sizes. Thinking about this merely with regard to pot-odds (in villain's perspective) is problematic, IMO. The fact is that Gavin's stack is just big enough to put enough pressure on CO, in order for him to fold all kinds of hands that might make a "pot-odds" call, not to talk about all the garbage hands villain is stealing with here, and will fold *incorrectly* in most cases.

[CardSharpCook]

Honestly, I don't like this move. It is jumping off a bridge without a bungee cord. Sure, maybe the water won't hurt that much, but it just isn't a good idea. Just in case he calls, I want a hand that can withstand some attacks. Also, I think it kills future resteal moves. If he knows that you are aggressively defending your blind, he can and will become more liberal in calling them. He can now reevaluate his hand in a much brighter light. All of a sudden, you've got to have the goods the next 3 times you resteal, because he is getting great pot odds, and won't be discounting his hand so much.

I think you are killing your FE for future resteals AND risking your tourney life for a reduced resteal pot.

CSC

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Honestly, I don't like this move. It is jumping off a bridge without a bungee cord. Sure, maybe the water won't hurt that much, but it just isn't a good idea. Just in case he calls, I want a hand that can withstand some attacks. Also, I think it kills future resteal moves. If he knows that you are aggressively defending your blind, he can and will become more liberal in calling them. He can now reevaluate his hand in a much brighter light. All of a sudden, you've got to have the goods the next 3 times you resteal, because he is getting great pot odds, and won't be discounting his hand so much.

I think you are killing your FE for future resteals AND risking your tourney life for a reduced resteal pot.

CSC

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, that or it will keep him from stealing since you know that he won't come at your blind w/out a good hand. If Gavin has shown that he will come at you w/ T3, it kind of stops you from stealing w/ 67s.

[locutus2002]

Clearly this isn't the only thing going on in the hand.

I am pointing out two major points:
Gavin has to get villain to lay down the hand 60% of the time to make it positive EV. (assuming villain is 2:1 to win the hand if he calls) I'm not even advocating that you need to make a positive EV play here, just pointing out the facts.
The pot odds are pretty good for villain to make a call with a wide range of hands. This is an unfavorable aspect given the 1st point (that villain needs to lay down ~60%).

In my opinion the stacks are too short to give a great deal of consideration to tournament equity. (which could easily be wrong).

I'm not saying he doesn't have any FE to resteal from CO. Just that given my limited understanding of the situation, I don't like the play.

I am sure the intangibles count for a great deal here, especially villain getting to see the cards. No one is more qualified to weigh in on these aspects than Gavin.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Honestly, I don't like this move. It is jumping off a bridge without a bungee cord. Sure, maybe the water won't hurt that much, but it just isn't a good idea. Just in case he calls, I want a hand that can withstand some attacks. Also, I think it kills future resteal moves. If he knows that you are aggressively defending your blind, he can and will become more liberal in calling them. He can now reevaluate his hand in a much brighter light. All of a sudden, you've got to have the goods the next 3 times you resteal, because he is getting great pot odds, and won't be discounting his hand so much.

I think you are killing your FE for future resteals AND risking your tourney life for a reduced resteal pot.

CSC

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, that or it will keep him from stealing since you know that he won't come at your blind w/out a good hand. If Gavin has shown that he will come at you w/ T3, it kind of stops you from stealing w/ 67s.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is the hope, but my fear is the it loosens the table up, particularily when I am showing aggression. OTOH, I do love showing off a great bluff, and the only way to do that is if part of the pot is AIed. AND if you can count on increased looseness, you can open up your game in some fun ways.

CSC

[MLG]

I agree with this. The concept behind the play is perfect, but Gavin is juuuuuuust a little too short for me to be comfortable making the play. Really borderline though.

Also the points about changing table dynamics intentionally figuring you will adjust better than them are really interesting.

[JaBlue]

is CO smart enough to realize that you should be doing this with any two cards if he ever folds, that is, if he folds you instantly make a ton with no risk?

I think your play is obvious and I don't like it unless CO will not realize it for what it is.

Hope it worked out.

[2005]

[ QUOTE ]
I watched another hand, that I have to ask you about. . .

You found yourself short somewhere around 29k in the bb. Someone raises in mid position a little more than 2x the bb. You smooth call and push on a 9d 7d 4? flop. Pure stop and go?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I had KQ