Kuso
05-16-2005, 11:26 AM
I have a dirty little secret that I want to share with you -- I'm fascinated by stories about cracked aces. AA is considered "the best hand" in NL Hold 'em, and we all get juiced when we find it in our hole cards. Yet, I read and hear a lot of "bad beat" stories about cracked pocket rockets. Some people even swear off AA as being cursed. What's going wrong here? Why aren't we building up huge chip stacks with this so-called best hand?
My speculation is that it has to do with misplaced expectations -- that is, players expect high value from AA every time they get it. Yet, this is not a realistic expectation. As such, I am writing this post as a starting point for a discussion about what to expect from pocket aces.
Some caveats:
- This is not a strategy piece, but a discussion of where value is attained when playing AA.
- This is my opinion based on my experiences in lower limit games (home and internet).
- The chart assumes a very straightforward playing style by Hero -- your mileage may vary.
- Some plays by Villain not necessarily "good" ones, but they are made sometimes.
- I am sure that different playing contexts may change the expected value and correct strategy substantially. That being said, I think that the overall idea of the chart is sound.
- Apologies if this has been discussed elsewhere in books or forums. I did a quick search on 2+2 that turned up nothing. If it has been discussed, please point it out to me.
- This is a very rough draft, so criticism is expected and welcome.
This expected value chart relates to lower-level NL games, including SnGs ($1-$30), MTTs ($1-$30), and cash games with limited buy-in or capped exposure ($50 max buy-in... maybe $100). I would like to hear what differences, if any, occur at different levels within these ranges or above. This chart also assumes that Hero is not playing in all-in-junkie freerolls (at least not the early stages thereof) or is in the stage of tournament that warrants all-in play or fold (e.g., late stages of tourneys when the blinds are ridiculously high).
Explanation of symbols and abbreviations Pre-flop
T&R = Turn and River
LOSS = Hero loses money bet due to folding or losing showdown
$ = Blinds only, maybe a few limpers or small raises. Usually happens when everyone folds early.
$$ = 1 or more people call 3x-7x BB bets, but give no action later (e.g., because they missed the flop)
$$$ = Similar to $$, but a few more decent-sized bets are made and called before everyone folds. This might happen if someone thinks they have a strong hand (e.g., top two pair) but quickly get the feeling that they are beaten by trips.
$$$$ = Good action pre-flop, good action post-flop, but then fizzles on turn or river. Common for aggressive opponents playing drawing hands who get punished for drawing but get out of the hand when they don't hit.
$$$$$ = An all-in from a medium-stack plus the possibility of a little extra action from people who eventually fold.
$$$$$$ = Massive amounts of action by one or more player with medium stacks (for two or more players) or large stacks (for one or more players) and are likely all-in. They think they have the stone cold nuts but don't.
***** Hero has AA *****
Pre-flop
Situation 1: Hero goes all-in either straight away or when raised by an opponent.
<font color="green">No callers</font> = $
<font color="green">One or more callers</font> = $$$$$ (80%-85%), LOSS (15%-20%)
Situation 2: Hero makes 3x-7x BB raise.
<font color="green">Only callers </font> = See Post-Flop
Post-Flop
All of the numbered scenarios assume that there are not 3 straight cards or flush cards on the flop. The last scenario covers this topic.
Scenario 1
Rags on the flop, Hero wants drawing hands to pay and bigger hands to reveal themselves via reraises.
Scenario 1A: Hero draws blanks on the flop and bets or raises enough to force out drawing hands and see where he's at.
<font color="green">No callers </font> = $$
<font color="green">Only callers </font>: T&R don't help drawing hands = $$$$, T&R help drawing hands = LOSS
<font color="green">Small reraise </font> = This situation has too many strategic contextual variables that influence the value, so I am going to take the easy way out and not give it one. I welcome any and all ideas. LOSS is a distinct possibility via either a small set or a drawing hand. A big win is not likely unless hand improves on the T&R.
<font color="green">Big reraise</font> = LOSS (fold, as reraiser probably hit a set or better)
Scenario 1B: Hero draws blanks on flop and slow-plays for a check-raise.
<font color="green">Only checks</font>: T&R don't help drawing hands = $$ or $$$ (only when drawing hands are grossly misplayed), T&R help drawing hands = LOSS
<font color="green">Villain weak raise, Hero solid reraise, Villain folds </font> = $$
<font color="green">Villain weak raise, Hero solid reraise, Villain calls</font> : T&R don't help drawing hands = $$$$, T&R help drawing hands = LOSS (assumes that a set was not slow-played)
<font color="green">Villain weak raise, Hero solid reraise, Villain bets big (likely all-in) </font> = LOSS (fold due to represented set or better)
<font color="green">Villain strong raise, Hero folds </font> = LOSS (again, Villain representing a set)
<font color="green">Villain strong raise, Hero solid reraise, Villain folds</font> = $$$$
<font color="green">Villain strong raise, Hero solid reraise, Villain calls</font>: T&R don't help drawing hands = $$$$, T&R help drawing hands = LOSS (likely a drawing hand... a made hand would reraise to get Hero's chips in the middle)
<font color="green">Villain strong raise, Hero solid reraise, Villain bets big (likely all-in) </font> = LOSS (Hero folds or is likely to lose showdown)
<font color="green">Villain strong raise, Hero calls</font> : No help on T&R = LOSS, set or better on T&R = $$$$ (I don't recommend this strategy, but people do play it)
Scenario 2
Hero flops a set, wants to get drawing hands out of the hand, but wants to extract money from weaker made hands (e.g., two pair or smaller set).
Scenario 2A: Hero flops a set and bets or raises enough to force out drawing hands and see where he's at.
<font color="green">No callers</font> = $$
<font color="green">Only callers</font>: T&R don't help drawing hands = $$$$, T&R help drawing hands = LOSS
<font color="green">Villain reraises, Hero calls</font> = Hero doesn't do this so that he avoids getting drawn out without extracting maximum chips from the Villain.
<font color="green">Villain reraises, Hero bets big (likely all-in), Villain folds</font> = $$$
<font color="green">Villain reraises, Hero bets big (likely all-in), Villain calls</font> = $$$$, $$$$$, or LOSS (if a draw hits) (Villain probably has a small set, two pair or a drawing hand and likely misplayed it.)
Scenario 2B: Hero flops a set and slow-plays for a check-raise.
<font color="green">Only checks</font> = T&R don't help drawing hands = $$$ or $$$$, T&R help drawing hands = LOSS
<font color="green">Villain bets, Hero bets big (likely all-in), Villain folds</font> = $$$
<font color="green">Villain bets, Hero bets big (likely all-in), Villain calls</font> = $$$$$ with a small chance of LOSS if a poorly played drawing hand hits or if a smaller set spikes the fourth card.
Scenario 3
Hero hits a monster and is afraid of nothing. The only goal is to extract the most amount of money from the other players.
Scenario 3A: Hero flops a boat or better and bets relatively small, sweetening the pot and hoping that losing drawing hands hit.
<font color="green">No callers</font> = $$ (and a lot of tears from the Hero)
<font color="green">Only callers</font>: T&R don't help drawing hands = $$$ (note that this is NOT $$$$ due to the fact that the bet is not at the level to scare drawing hands away), T&R help drawing hands = $$$$$ or $$$$$$
<font color="green">Villain reraises, Hero calls</font> = $$$$, $$$$$, or $$$$$$ depending on how many people are involved and whether Villain figures out that he is being slow played.
<font color="green">Villain reraises, Hero bets big (likely all-in), Villain folds</font> = $$$$
<font color="green">Villain reraises, Hero bets big (likely all-in), Villain calls</font> = $$$$$ or $$$$$$
Scenario 3B: Hero flops a boat or better and slow-plays for a check-raise.
<font color="green">Only checks</font>: T&R don't help drawing hands = $$$, T&R help drawing hands = $$$$$ or $$$$$$
<font color="green">Villain raises, Hero calls</font> = $$$$, $$$$$, or $$$$$$ depending on how many people are involved and whether Villain figures out that he is being slow played.
<font color="green">Villain raises, Hero bets big (likely all-in), Villain folds</font> = $$$$
<font color="green">Villain raises, Hero bets big (likely all-in), Villain calls</font> = $$$$$ or $$$$$$
Flush and Straight scenarios
Three cards to a straight or flush hit the board on the flop. How to play this situation is more of a strategy discussion, but suffice to say that if a straight or flush is represented, the most common expected value of AA is LOSS. If a straight or flush is not represented post-flop, then see the above scenarios.
Discussion
Probabilities probably can be assigned to these outcomes to make it more informative. Based on my experience, I suggest the following:
- Most of the time AA unimproved pays off $ or $$.
- Don't try to showdown with unimproved AA. If you do showdown , then don't be surprised when they are cracked. If you win the showdown, it most likely means that you didn't bet enough along the way to scare the Villain or that the Villain played desperately (i.e., put his tournament standing at risk in hope of a draw AND a bluff or weak hand by Hero).
- Improved AA might get a little more ($$ or $$$) than unimproved AA in the majority of cases.
- If AA doesn't improve on the flop, then LOSS is not unlikely. Limiting the value of this loss is a key to success.
- It is extremely important to get drawing hands out of the pot ASAP, as it will likely cost you a big LOSS if they hit. Make them pay to see the cards, but you would rather they fold. In certain situations it may be a good idea to bait drawing hands into the pot so that you get plenty of chips if they miss, but this is really more of a point of strategy. I am assuming that your goal is to achieve maximum gain while taking minimal risk (this is, of course, just one way of playing).
- Many playes seem to undervalue the possibility of drawing hands (esp. straights) on the board. Some people play low-value hands (e.g., 2-5 suited in early position), but make out like bandits when they hit. Getting these people out is one good reason to make that pre-flop raise sting a bit, even if it scares everyone else off, too. A small win is better than a being on the receiving end of a big suck out.
- While relatively rare, the big chips get cashed on AA when it is improved AND another player gets second best hand. This seems to happen most often when AAA beat top two pair or trips and when boats with aces beat the weaker boats (they almost always do) or other made hands.
- The only other time you can expect a big payoff ($$$$$ or better) from AA is if you play the all-in lottery pre-flop.
The last two points strike me as being where many players have misaligned expectations. They want $$$$ or better every time they get AA, but I would say that the $$$$ or better result is relatively atypical.
If possible, I would like to hear from pros or high-level players on how this type of scale would be different at their level. My speculation is that you don't get big payoffs as often, certainly not by two players. Another is that the LOSS value of a pro is likely smaller percentage-wise than even a good low-level player. That being said, AA could just play completely different for pros (perhaps the cards don't really even matter that much in NL).
Again, all comments are welcome.
Also, this is my first post. Apologies for the length -- I usually don' write this much.
My speculation is that it has to do with misplaced expectations -- that is, players expect high value from AA every time they get it. Yet, this is not a realistic expectation. As such, I am writing this post as a starting point for a discussion about what to expect from pocket aces.
Some caveats:
- This is not a strategy piece, but a discussion of where value is attained when playing AA.
- This is my opinion based on my experiences in lower limit games (home and internet).
- The chart assumes a very straightforward playing style by Hero -- your mileage may vary.
- Some plays by Villain not necessarily "good" ones, but they are made sometimes.
- I am sure that different playing contexts may change the expected value and correct strategy substantially. That being said, I think that the overall idea of the chart is sound.
- Apologies if this has been discussed elsewhere in books or forums. I did a quick search on 2+2 that turned up nothing. If it has been discussed, please point it out to me.
- This is a very rough draft, so criticism is expected and welcome.
This expected value chart relates to lower-level NL games, including SnGs ($1-$30), MTTs ($1-$30), and cash games with limited buy-in or capped exposure ($50 max buy-in... maybe $100). I would like to hear what differences, if any, occur at different levels within these ranges or above. This chart also assumes that Hero is not playing in all-in-junkie freerolls (at least not the early stages thereof) or is in the stage of tournament that warrants all-in play or fold (e.g., late stages of tourneys when the blinds are ridiculously high).
Explanation of symbols and abbreviations Pre-flop
T&R = Turn and River
LOSS = Hero loses money bet due to folding or losing showdown
$ = Blinds only, maybe a few limpers or small raises. Usually happens when everyone folds early.
$$ = 1 or more people call 3x-7x BB bets, but give no action later (e.g., because they missed the flop)
$$$ = Similar to $$, but a few more decent-sized bets are made and called before everyone folds. This might happen if someone thinks they have a strong hand (e.g., top two pair) but quickly get the feeling that they are beaten by trips.
$$$$ = Good action pre-flop, good action post-flop, but then fizzles on turn or river. Common for aggressive opponents playing drawing hands who get punished for drawing but get out of the hand when they don't hit.
$$$$$ = An all-in from a medium-stack plus the possibility of a little extra action from people who eventually fold.
$$$$$$ = Massive amounts of action by one or more player with medium stacks (for two or more players) or large stacks (for one or more players) and are likely all-in. They think they have the stone cold nuts but don't.
***** Hero has AA *****
Pre-flop
Situation 1: Hero goes all-in either straight away or when raised by an opponent.
<font color="green">No callers</font> = $
<font color="green">One or more callers</font> = $$$$$ (80%-85%), LOSS (15%-20%)
Situation 2: Hero makes 3x-7x BB raise.
<font color="green">Only callers </font> = See Post-Flop
Post-Flop
All of the numbered scenarios assume that there are not 3 straight cards or flush cards on the flop. The last scenario covers this topic.
Scenario 1
Rags on the flop, Hero wants drawing hands to pay and bigger hands to reveal themselves via reraises.
Scenario 1A: Hero draws blanks on the flop and bets or raises enough to force out drawing hands and see where he's at.
<font color="green">No callers </font> = $$
<font color="green">Only callers </font>: T&R don't help drawing hands = $$$$, T&R help drawing hands = LOSS
<font color="green">Small reraise </font> = This situation has too many strategic contextual variables that influence the value, so I am going to take the easy way out and not give it one. I welcome any and all ideas. LOSS is a distinct possibility via either a small set or a drawing hand. A big win is not likely unless hand improves on the T&R.
<font color="green">Big reraise</font> = LOSS (fold, as reraiser probably hit a set or better)
Scenario 1B: Hero draws blanks on flop and slow-plays for a check-raise.
<font color="green">Only checks</font>: T&R don't help drawing hands = $$ or $$$ (only when drawing hands are grossly misplayed), T&R help drawing hands = LOSS
<font color="green">Villain weak raise, Hero solid reraise, Villain folds </font> = $$
<font color="green">Villain weak raise, Hero solid reraise, Villain calls</font> : T&R don't help drawing hands = $$$$, T&R help drawing hands = LOSS (assumes that a set was not slow-played)
<font color="green">Villain weak raise, Hero solid reraise, Villain bets big (likely all-in) </font> = LOSS (fold due to represented set or better)
<font color="green">Villain strong raise, Hero folds </font> = LOSS (again, Villain representing a set)
<font color="green">Villain strong raise, Hero solid reraise, Villain folds</font> = $$$$
<font color="green">Villain strong raise, Hero solid reraise, Villain calls</font>: T&R don't help drawing hands = $$$$, T&R help drawing hands = LOSS (likely a drawing hand... a made hand would reraise to get Hero's chips in the middle)
<font color="green">Villain strong raise, Hero solid reraise, Villain bets big (likely all-in) </font> = LOSS (Hero folds or is likely to lose showdown)
<font color="green">Villain strong raise, Hero calls</font> : No help on T&R = LOSS, set or better on T&R = $$$$ (I don't recommend this strategy, but people do play it)
Scenario 2
Hero flops a set, wants to get drawing hands out of the hand, but wants to extract money from weaker made hands (e.g., two pair or smaller set).
Scenario 2A: Hero flops a set and bets or raises enough to force out drawing hands and see where he's at.
<font color="green">No callers</font> = $$
<font color="green">Only callers</font>: T&R don't help drawing hands = $$$$, T&R help drawing hands = LOSS
<font color="green">Villain reraises, Hero calls</font> = Hero doesn't do this so that he avoids getting drawn out without extracting maximum chips from the Villain.
<font color="green">Villain reraises, Hero bets big (likely all-in), Villain folds</font> = $$$
<font color="green">Villain reraises, Hero bets big (likely all-in), Villain calls</font> = $$$$, $$$$$, or LOSS (if a draw hits) (Villain probably has a small set, two pair or a drawing hand and likely misplayed it.)
Scenario 2B: Hero flops a set and slow-plays for a check-raise.
<font color="green">Only checks</font> = T&R don't help drawing hands = $$$ or $$$$, T&R help drawing hands = LOSS
<font color="green">Villain bets, Hero bets big (likely all-in), Villain folds</font> = $$$
<font color="green">Villain bets, Hero bets big (likely all-in), Villain calls</font> = $$$$$ with a small chance of LOSS if a poorly played drawing hand hits or if a smaller set spikes the fourth card.
Scenario 3
Hero hits a monster and is afraid of nothing. The only goal is to extract the most amount of money from the other players.
Scenario 3A: Hero flops a boat or better and bets relatively small, sweetening the pot and hoping that losing drawing hands hit.
<font color="green">No callers</font> = $$ (and a lot of tears from the Hero)
<font color="green">Only callers</font>: T&R don't help drawing hands = $$$ (note that this is NOT $$$$ due to the fact that the bet is not at the level to scare drawing hands away), T&R help drawing hands = $$$$$ or $$$$$$
<font color="green">Villain reraises, Hero calls</font> = $$$$, $$$$$, or $$$$$$ depending on how many people are involved and whether Villain figures out that he is being slow played.
<font color="green">Villain reraises, Hero bets big (likely all-in), Villain folds</font> = $$$$
<font color="green">Villain reraises, Hero bets big (likely all-in), Villain calls</font> = $$$$$ or $$$$$$
Scenario 3B: Hero flops a boat or better and slow-plays for a check-raise.
<font color="green">Only checks</font>: T&R don't help drawing hands = $$$, T&R help drawing hands = $$$$$ or $$$$$$
<font color="green">Villain raises, Hero calls</font> = $$$$, $$$$$, or $$$$$$ depending on how many people are involved and whether Villain figures out that he is being slow played.
<font color="green">Villain raises, Hero bets big (likely all-in), Villain folds</font> = $$$$
<font color="green">Villain raises, Hero bets big (likely all-in), Villain calls</font> = $$$$$ or $$$$$$
Flush and Straight scenarios
Three cards to a straight or flush hit the board on the flop. How to play this situation is more of a strategy discussion, but suffice to say that if a straight or flush is represented, the most common expected value of AA is LOSS. If a straight or flush is not represented post-flop, then see the above scenarios.
Discussion
Probabilities probably can be assigned to these outcomes to make it more informative. Based on my experience, I suggest the following:
- Most of the time AA unimproved pays off $ or $$.
- Don't try to showdown with unimproved AA. If you do showdown , then don't be surprised when they are cracked. If you win the showdown, it most likely means that you didn't bet enough along the way to scare the Villain or that the Villain played desperately (i.e., put his tournament standing at risk in hope of a draw AND a bluff or weak hand by Hero).
- Improved AA might get a little more ($$ or $$$) than unimproved AA in the majority of cases.
- If AA doesn't improve on the flop, then LOSS is not unlikely. Limiting the value of this loss is a key to success.
- It is extremely important to get drawing hands out of the pot ASAP, as it will likely cost you a big LOSS if they hit. Make them pay to see the cards, but you would rather they fold. In certain situations it may be a good idea to bait drawing hands into the pot so that you get plenty of chips if they miss, but this is really more of a point of strategy. I am assuming that your goal is to achieve maximum gain while taking minimal risk (this is, of course, just one way of playing).
- Many playes seem to undervalue the possibility of drawing hands (esp. straights) on the board. Some people play low-value hands (e.g., 2-5 suited in early position), but make out like bandits when they hit. Getting these people out is one good reason to make that pre-flop raise sting a bit, even if it scares everyone else off, too. A small win is better than a being on the receiving end of a big suck out.
- While relatively rare, the big chips get cashed on AA when it is improved AND another player gets second best hand. This seems to happen most often when AAA beat top two pair or trips and when boats with aces beat the weaker boats (they almost always do) or other made hands.
- The only other time you can expect a big payoff ($$$$$ or better) from AA is if you play the all-in lottery pre-flop.
The last two points strike me as being where many players have misaligned expectations. They want $$$$ or better every time they get AA, but I would say that the $$$$ or better result is relatively atypical.
If possible, I would like to hear from pros or high-level players on how this type of scale would be different at their level. My speculation is that you don't get big payoffs as often, certainly not by two players. Another is that the LOSS value of a pro is likely smaller percentage-wise than even a good low-level player. That being said, AA could just play completely different for pros (perhaps the cards don't really even matter that much in NL).
Again, all comments are welcome.
Also, this is my first post. Apologies for the length -- I usually don' write this much.