My weekend boxing pick

[Indiana]

Bet the under on the golota/brewster fight. These two fighers won't make it past 7 rounds. Brewster cannot do it physically, Golota cannot do it mentally.

Indiana

[ThaHero]

If you had to choose a fighter, would you? I was considering betting on Brewster because Golota seems to choke in every Championship match he gets.

Also, I'm not sure how much power Golota has. Is he going to be able to knock out Brewster? From what I heard, Brewster took a beating from Wladimir and was able to sustain himself, so he must have a pretty good chin. I know he has power too, so him knocking out Golota could be a possibility.

[TRBNGR]

In Golata's last two fights, he looked good (Byrd and Ruiz - two fighters I think are better than Lamon). Brewster didn't look so great against Kali (and honestly never looked good outside of the Wladimir fight). Ill take Golata at -260 here...

[Indiana]

I think that golota should be a small favorite and would expect him to win...With that said, I have $ on Brewster because I am getting around 3:1 odds...+250 @sportsbook.com...I just dont see him losing this fight 75% of the time so I feel that I am getting +EV...

Indiana

[ThaHero]

Yeah I think I will bet on Brewster as well, although when I went to sportsbook.com it said he was +200. That's still pretty good IMO tho. I might just bet the under however.

[JupiterUWG]

that was an ass whooping if i've ever seen one....thank god i didnt bet on golota like i was going to

[TheTimeIsUp]

WOW!

[CCx]

good pick, under wins (and how!)

[Indiana]

Thanks guys...I knew that the under was gold...I also loosely recommended betting on Brewster as I myself did. I have only been wrong twice over the last few years on boxing matches...The first was De La Hoya vs Mosley even though I still feel that De La Hoya won and the second was the last Judah vs Spinks fight....My next pick on the Gatti/Mayweather fight will be out soon!!

Indiana

[ThaHero]

That is the 2nd week in a row I missed out on money that I would have had. Good pick on the under Indiana. I was planning on betting Lamon a few weeks ago. Cant wait for your Gatti-Mayweather fight. Id also like to know what you think about Julio Caesar Chavez next fight, and Tyson.

[chiachu]

nice pick on the under. Wish i had followed the brewster bet as well /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[TRBNGR]

[ QUOTE ]
nice pick on the under. Wish i had followed the brewster bet as well /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ] Yea, me too, sorry fellas. Again nice call Indiana.

[Indiana]

I don't have a great read on the Chavez fight...My next pick is going to be a big bet on Kostya this a week from Saturday...I bet that he will win outright, but don't make this bet until the day of the fight because I feel that the line will move under -300....The brits are the biggest gamblers on the planet and like to bet on the local guy (this fight is in Manchester). I will also put a small sum of $$ on the under @ 9.5 and this is ok to bet now...

Good Luck, Indiana

[ThaHero]

Yeah I think Kostya will win as well. The odds are not great though, although they could be worse. I think I'll bet on him anyway. I'm glad my brother bet on Lamon Brewster. At least one of us made money off that massacre lol

[Indiana]

I would not want to step into the ring with Kostya...In my opinion, he is the toughest fighter in boxing right now...I would love to see Mayweather take him on, actually i would pay $300 just to sit in the rafters for that fight. People who follow boxing as intimately as I do know that Kostya would beat Floyd, but it would probably be the best matchup any of us could hope to see in our lifetimes....That said, Hatton has 0% chance to win this...So its free money. Just take a look at Kostya's recent fights with Mitchell...I mean, Sharmbe was really really determined in that second fight and had the eye of the tiger, but he was taken apart like a child...Shortly after the Zab Judah fight I became a true believer...he may just be the greatest of all time...

Indiana

[Heinz57]

Appreciate your boxing insights Indiana, I trailed your under pick for a nice profit. /images/graemlins/cool.gif Thanks, Heinz57

[Tuds75]

Indy,

I have been preaching the English bettors will drive the number on Kotzya bet for about 3 months now (check my previous posts). Glad to see others are seeing it the same way.

I noticed with your previous posts your are hit-legit on your boxing picks, but have you noticed a trend in some of the recent big fights? The dog is keeps coming out on top. Some examples: Brewster, Winky (vs. Mosley & Tito), Tarver (vs. Jones), Glen Johnson (vs. Tarver & Jones), Danny Williams, Judah (vs Spinks), Morales (vs. Pacquio), Corrales. The list could go on but it just seems the dogs are getting under appreciated in the odds makers world or their opponets are over rated.

I am just throwing this out to see if you picked up on this because you are such a good boxing mind.

I don't think this "under-dog theory" will apply in the Kotzya/Hatton fight, but what about in Gatti/Mayweather or Hopkins/Taylor or even Rahman/Barret.

Just wondering your thougths.

Tuds

[ThaHero]

I've noticed this trend in the underdogs winning as well.

As far as upcoming fights, I'm almost positive Kostya will win. The Gatti/Mayweather fight seems like a lock to me also in Mayweather's direction. He is just too talented for Gatti, but there is still some research I have to do on this one.

Mike Tyson is so unpredictable that he migt end up losing. He's a big favorite in his next match, but he was against Williams too. You just never know with Tyson so it might be worth a look-see.

I have Monte Barrett over Rahman. Barrett has been knocking of some young undefeated opponents and looks hungry again. He had a terrible cut over his eye against Owen Beck but rallied back and knocked Beck out.

I want to bet on the Robinson-Chavez fight too. Chavez is a huge favorite, but I don't think Robinson will be so easy to defeat, even though he has been on a decline. He is a little younger. I wonder if there is some injury I didn't hear about?

I think Hopkins will defeat Taylor. I just don't think Taylor is ready. But with the EA Sports curse you never know lol.

[Indiana]

Tuds,

Missed your posts on the changing Kostya line...Glad to see that we are in agreement with this. I have noticed that there have been some great deals lately in betting on the dogs...I will lay a little against Tyson, but I don't consider this to be one of my "picks", just something I think could turn out (just gonna bet 100 or so @ 6:1). I think you hit the nail on the head, boxing is full of hype and the favorites are overrated by the public. I mean, who would even imagine that Manny could beat Morales after watching Manny's previous fight? His style is similar to Mayorga's, and once fighters study the tapes and figure out how to fight a guy like Manny/Tyson/Mayorga, its pretty obvious what the result will be. As for Mayweather/Gatti, I believe that Mayweather will win and am almost sure that it will go the distance. I will be betting the over 11.5 on this fight but I don't like the price for betting on the victor. I am afraid that Gatti's popularity may bias the decision at the end...That is another trend in boxing right now, and I don't want my $$ riding on some guys decision. Prime examples are the last Hoya/Mosley and Oquendo/Byrd fights...So my pick is to bet the over on the Gatti/Mayweather fight because it will for sure go the distance. Oh yeah, and by the way, does Chris Byrd suck majorly or am I somehow blind??? He is actually being called a great fighter by some and getting spots on Fox Sports...Didn't Fres Oquendo beat his ass to hell or was I watching the wrong fight???

Indiana

[Tuds75]

Has you seen this McBride guy fight? He is HORRIBLE. I saw him on FNF and Teddy Atlas and Joe P were making fun of this goofy giant. He is must have molasses moving threw his viens because this fella is SLOOOOOOOW. I think I could be maybe even $ against this cat and I have never stepped in a ring. But then again Tyson could just quit on his stool between the first and second rounds. you just never know with him.

Am I the only one who still thinks Tyson could concure the HW division. He really didnt lose to Danny Williams. Shoot Danny was out on his feet in the first and clinched his way through the round. Then Tyson blew out his knee in the 2nd (or 3rd) and almost knocked Williams out on one leg. Williams connects on some good shots, but Tyson can't move with a bum leg. He goes down and just sits on the canvas because the leg is so messed up. Tyson wins easy against Williams if he doesnt mess up his knee and will do the same against McBride.

I thought Rahman over Vitali was a great bet, but then injuries postponed that one. Rahman fights the bigger, taller and big punchers well and then has trouble with boxes who move and jab. This is were Barrett can beat Rahman, but Rahman latley looks really focused and seems to be doing all the right things. I hope he gets his shot at Vitali in Sept.

Hatton don't think he will win, but he has the "punchers chance" of course he is in against a puncher as well.

Mayweather/Gatti, I think Mayweather is the better fighter, but Gatti is looking better in each of his fights over the last 4 years (that 2nd rd KO of Dorin w/ a body punch......Very Nice/Impressive). So don't count out Gatti. He also has one of the best trainers in Buddy McGirt. So you know he will be well prepared. A big thing that could determine the fight that is going overlooked is the ring size. A lager ring and Mayweather jabs, combos and then runs away from Gatti. In a small ring Gatti can corner Floyd and do some damage with his power. If any one can find any info on the ring size and post if that would be excellent.

Indy and Hero thanks for talking boxign with me, there are just not enough people who are enlightened about the game as we all are. Lets keep this conversation alive.

With what sports site do you all make boxing bets? I have looked around and am unsure to choose. Pinnacle has the better line/odds that are always moving, but less fights to choose from. Sports book has more fights, but not very good odds. Their odds are set and really don't move until just before the fight. Any help would be GREATLY appreciated.

Tuds

[Tuds75]

Oh almost forgot:

Chris Byrd is a overweight cruiserweigth, with the power of a 13 year old girl. He boxes like he is swatting mosquitoes. Vastly overrated. Wanted to see him and Toney fight, but that will have to wait.

[Indiana]

Tuds,

Yeah you are making some good points. I would take Vitali over Rahman though, especially after the Rahman vs Ruiz fight. We are similar in our obsession for boxing, but I don't think that there are as many fight fans as there used to be back when Tyson was champ. People at work think I am really strange for being a boxing and poker addict. When someone heard me talking about betting on fights it got to my manager...Let's just say, this 9-5 thing pays the bills but it might not work out:)

I would rather go without food for 3 days than to miss a good boxing match like the Gatti/Mayweather fight, and might even volunteer a testicle to see Mayweather fight Kostya...That would be the best fight for the money in my opinion.

Oh yeah, I bet on sportsbook just because I am too lazy to shop around for the lines...I bet on boxing and make plenty, but just blow it back on dam baseball and nba...and then make back the $ on poker which is good right now...Not to mention that WSOP seat I won on stars...

You play poker?

Indiana

[Tuds75]

Indy,

We are going to have to agree to disagree on the Rahman/Vitali fight. I saw Rahman/Ruiz and wanted to throw up afterwards. Ruiz would punch Hahman and then fold him once he got on the inside. Rahman was rocked a couple times, but Ruiz has rocked a lot of heavies. Ruiz's garbage style won that fight.They should have Ruiz and Byrd fight in an empty area and then blow up the area with those 2 inside. It would do the boxing a favor to rid itself of these two. Did you see Rahman vs Tua. He controlled the fight and was the only person to ever knock Tua down (be it JUST after the final bell). I don't think Vitali is very good. Just 3 years ago his brother was all the talk of the HW division and Vitali was a distant afterthought. I don't think Vitali has gotten much better in that time, he just keeps fighting opponets whose styles are perfect for him(that is slow, easy to hit targets, who are smaller then him). I am afraid of Rahman getting KOed from a big Vitali punch because Rahman's chin is very questionable. But if it goes 12 Rahman will win.

Yeah I play poker, I have been running ICE cold for the last few weeks so I have not been playing very much. I know I have to get up off the canvas, but I when things get sour I ust need to take some time off before I blow my bankroll.

I don't really care about the Chavezs' fight this week, just waiting for next week's fight. How much do you usually bet on a fight? and what is the best amount to bet to counter the house's take.

I would like to see Antonio Margurito fight ODLH or Zab, he would be the dog in either fight, but he on his game like no oher fighter in boxing right now. He would be a excellent bet against either of those 2.

Good Luck at the WSOP, I was out there last year to watch it and had a buddy in it. If you are a poker fan it is just AMAZING to be our there during that tourney. It is seriouslly like the center of the poker universe.

Don't forget to keep posting with all the big summer fights coming up. I would like to take your advice and profit on your knowledge.

Tuds