88

[Phil Van Sexton]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t475)
Hero (t1535)
Button (t1910)
SB (t6080)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.

No real reads. I had stolen the blinds on the previous hand.

This is a 109.

[treeofwisdom7]

callllllllllllllllll~~~~~~~~~~~~ and hope someone else calls with you

ok i might get [censored] for saying that. but i would call/fold cuz BB is gonna push and more people in the pot better. if you push then BB will fold and watch you take a coin flip..

what did you do?

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
i would call/fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Juh??? How very charitable of you.

[treeofwisdom7]

i would never fold to the BB but i would to a bigger stack. my call is to get more callers.

[zaphod]

I would push. If you call or minraises, bigstack will be there betting at you on the flop.

This might be my last chance to get 4'th place.

[shejk]

It feels like a push. If he folds his sb to keep the ss alive, you're in trouble. This way ss cant get away, and the big stack will give you credit for a good hand.

[beeyjay]

the button is pushing unless he is a total moron. If he has that many chips I doubt hes a moron in the too passive way so I'd fold here. He's gonna push over the top of you and the BB is gonna fold and youre gonna have to fold. Better off folding and forcing the BB to try to get lucky in the BB to beat you.

[Scuba Chuck]

What are your thoughts for folding this hand? You don't care for the overlay, or are you concerned about the other callers?

It would seem that a call is minimally in order.

[treeofwisdom7]

"call"

[jcm4ccc]

Calling is the worst option. Here's what happens: the SB puts you all-in (you've shown weakness, after all), the BB folds (conceivably, since he now realizes that you may go out in 4th place), and now you either fold for a loss of 300 chips, or you are in a coin flip with the SB (who has a good chance of having 2 overcards to your 88).

Look at what the chip count will be if you call, the SB pushes, the BB folds, and you fold. SB has 6980 chips, the BB has 175 chips, you have 1235 chips, and the button has 1910 chips. If the SB wasn't bullying before, he may start now.

Folding is second worst. The button won't push unless he has a real hand. He is comfortably in second place, he is pushing through the big stack, and he doesn't want to double up the BB unnecessarily (if he pushes and the BB calls and doubles up, then he is down to 1435 chips and the BB has 1100 chips). That leaves it up to the SB to take out the BB. The SB may fold if he wants to bully the table. If not, then you have to figure the chances are 50/50 that he will double up the BB. So there's a decent chance that the BB will survive this round if you fold, with the blinds hitting you next.

Close your eyes and push.

[shejk]

The more I think about this hand, the more convinced I get that you have to push.

[uphigh_downlow]

think i agree most with this reply. except in that folding is the wrost option for me here

Call is only acceptable, if you think ChipLeader is passive and would want to cooperate in eliminating this guy. I have called in a similar position with a simlar chip stack, and been criticised by some of my friends whose opinion I respect. But only coz I had 2/3rd the stack of the chip leader, and I was pretty-pretty positive trhat he would not come over the top without a real premium hand, in which case I would feel comfortable letting go of my hand, sure that he most likely would bust the BB.

In all other case SB pushes BB folds, mebbe even calls. You are screwd

Folding is pretty bad, since bb can easily double up in this case, and hit your bb next with an all-in raise. Basically yu are the next target, no matter what happens this hand.

You might as well control your own fortune, instea of being pushed around

[durron597]

Are you playing for third or first? I push. 88 is a monster 4 handed.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling is the worst option. Here's what happens: the SB puts you all-in (you've shown weakness, after all), the BB folds (conceivably, since he now realizes that you may go out in 4th place), and now you either fold for a loss of 300 chips, or you are in a coin flip with the SB (who has a good chance of having 2 overcards to your 88).

[/ QUOTE ]

But if he does have those 2 overcards - say any two broadway - I think there's a pretty nontrivial chance that he's coming in even if we push, particularly since we know that PVS stole last hand, and I think people get skeptical when you push twice in a row.

That said, I tend to think this is a push as well; I don't really see what calling buys you, and I think pushing stands a pretty good chance of getting the BB to come along, particularly since you stole last hand and because this is a 109 (people will fold this all the time at 22 and less, in my experience)

[UMTerp]

Call/fold has some merits here. You guys need to think the situation through and look at some numbers before you laugh an idea off because it's not conventional.

I don't think calling is a terrible play. If you get raised all-in by either of the two stacks bigger than you, you only come along if the BB does too.

Actually, if you called/folded, you'd have a bigger equity in the SNG than you did before the hand!!

This hand:
475 = 8.75%
1535 = 23.86%
1910 = 26.57%
6080 = 40.82%

If you call/fold:
175 = 4.08%
1235 = 24.46%
1910 = 28.86%
6680 = 42.60%

And if the BB calls behind the big stack push, you'd call as well - the only way you wouldn't cash then is if the showdown ended BB > Big Stack > You. And given their probable hand ranges there, your equity in the prize pool would certainly be higher than the 24% should the 3-way all-in occur.

[bluefeet]

If you limp:
IMO, Button will be folding. He's looking across at your now T1200 stack with BB coming at you next hand. He sees BB on life support. He has big stack on his left. I don't see him getting involved in this pot.

SB will surely call. If he has a hand, he puts you in as well.

BB is all-in regardless.

Best case scenarios - SB only calls, BB reraise all-in, you call the T175 more, SB calls (won't have an opportunity to reraise at this point because SB's raise isn't min). You get a look at a T1425 pot hoping you hit an 8. You get one...you get all your chips in...you get paid....gh. OR, SB is feeling charitable and checks the board down with you and your 8's hold up against both SB and BB (a tall order IMO).

Worst case scenarios - SB reraises putting you all-in. BB calls (a given). Do you call now? SB representing...chance to bust BB? I don't think you can. You have T1235 with BB coming (pray SB busts BB). OR, SB just calls, BB raises, you both call - here comes the flop. SB uses his chips to bet ANYTHING on the flop. There is no 8. You fold. BB's hand holds up, he now has triples up and YOU'RE the shortstack (with BB next ta'boot).


If you push:
Button is getting out of the way. He isn't playing anything with two guys potentially busting.
SB may or may not call. I would honestly believe he would have to have at least some paint. You're prepared to do the dirty work for him. If he does call, you're still favored baring an overpair obviously.
BB's in regardless.

Best case scenarios - SB folds, BB calls, you're 8's hold up. OR...both call, they hold up, you triple up - ready to take big stack on.

Worst case scenarios - SB calls, BB calls. You only need to beat SB..still liking your chances. OR, SB folds, BB calls. You double up BB. You both now have T1000'ish, both still in the blinds...a little more work to do.

If you fold:
Button could very well lit it rip with a hand. If not, SB will surely put BB in.

Best case scenarios - SOMEBODY busts BB. You're ITM.

Worst case scenarios - BB doubles up. You still have T1500, BB has T1000'ish. You're both in the blind next hand, you still hold the advantage.


Sooooooo, IMHO I feel that calling is the least desirable option. Granted, the payoff could be tremendous for 'minimal' risk, but there are too many variables for your 'best case scenario' to come true.

I think either folding or pushing are fine. Folding requires some blind faith..."someone pleeeease bust BB". If not, he's not out of the woods yet.

Personally, I like the more aggressive approach. Push with pride!! "step aside boys, I got this one!". Many times I've seen big stack do just that. You're 8's hold up very well against BB's random cards.

[Unarmed]

If you push and Button or SB calls, BB will fold nearly everything, and be 100% correct in doing so.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]


Actually, if you called/folded, you'd have a bigger equity in the SNG than you did before the hand!!

This hand:
475 = 8.75%
1535 = 23.86%
1910 = 26.57%
6080 = 40.82%

If you call/fold:
175 = 4.08%
1235 = 24.46%
1910 = 28.86%
6680 = 42.60%



[/ QUOTE ]

So you are actually advocating the second situation over the first situation. In other words, given your choice, you would rather have the chip counts in the second situation than the first situation, just because ICM gives you an extra 0.6%.

Talk about following the ICM blindly.

[bluefeet]

You know, that is true. All the more reason to push. WIth that understanding, you're almost certain to isolate.

[UMTerp]

I'd probably fold the hand to begin with, but I was just showing that calling isn't as laughable as some posters are insinuating.

[durron597]

... because if Button folds than the SB should fold too so that he can continue bullying you and the Button around until you both have stacks like the BB's.

[TheUsher]

Ok, I browsed through some of the replies here and there's a couple that make me happy that I play sng's to win $$$. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

This is an automatic push and it's not even close. If you're at my table, and limp here UTG, I guarantee you that I'll push my SB here (if I'm big stack SB) with any 2. And that's a given. If you fold to begin with, you're folding the best hand and playing for 3rd. What other option is there but to push? Any type of hand range you'd put the other stacks on and it's still a push.

[uphigh_downlow]

While you certainly make a good point, but I think you are omparing the wrong two numbers.

I havent done the math yet, but its obvious that you need to compare what happens if I call-fold and what happens if I push or what if I fold.

Comparing call-fold with before the hand took place doesnt really mean much in this case.

ICM is somehow inadequate in considering upcoming blinds, so I wouldnt say that a mrginal +EV play would be the correct play here. There is a lot of variables here about who will call and push, and a lot of numbers to be guesstimated.

That said, you sure bring out an interesting play. Something definitely worth looking into

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an automatic push and it's not even close. If you're at my table, and limp here UTG, I guarantee you that I'll push my SB here (if I'm big stack SB) with any 2. And that's a given. If you fold, you're folding the best hand and playing for 3rd. What other option is there but to push? Any type of hange range you'd put the other stacks on and it's still a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Run the ICM's if:

If you push, button would only call AA-JJ. The big stack would call any ace, any suited king, any pair, and any two cards 9 or higher. The BB would fold any two cards if you get a call. The BB calls any two if both of the others fold.

I'm not certain that pushing would be +$EV.

Can eastbay's tool do something like that? I'm not too familiar with it.

[microbet]

As others have pointed out, pushing is the only thing that isn't exploitable here. If you call, SB is too likely to come over and if you fold, SB may well fold and punish you two medium stacks. He's not worried about bubbling out.

You have huge FE on button and SB has no great reason to call your push without a hand. 88 is too strong to let go. I think I would fold 55.

Unless big stack is totally totally passive I wouldn't call.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I browsed through some of the replies here and there's a couple that make me happy that I play sng's to win $$$. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

This is an automatic push and it's not even close. If you're at my table, and limp here UTG, I guarantee you that I'll push my SB here (if I'm big stack SB) with any 2. And that's a given. If you fold, you're folding the best hand and playing for 3rd. What other option is there but to push? Any type of hange range you'd put the other stacks on and it's still a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly right. Unless SB has no clue how to play the BS he should push you with any two on a limp. I cannot think of a better scenario for him/her to do so.

This is tailor scripted for big stack to exert maximum pressure on hero.

Let me ask this....who here as BS would not push over hero's limp...and what would be you push range if hero limped in?

My range in white:

<font color="white">it's a trick question...the cards dont matter here AT ALL </font>

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is an automatic push and it's not even close. If you're at my table, and limp here UTG, I guarantee you that I'll push my SB here (if I'm big stack SB) with any 2. And that's a given. If you fold, you're folding the best hand and playing for 3rd. What other option is there but to push? Any type of hange range you'd put the other stacks on and it's still a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Run the ICM's if:

If you push, button would only call AA-JJ. The big stack would call any ace, any suited king, any pair, and any two cards 9 or higher. The BB would fold any two cards if you get a call. The BB calls any two if both of the others fold.

I'm not certain that pushing would be +EV.

Can eastbay's tool do something like that? I'm not too familiar with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a joke right? Sorry if I'm cranky but I haven't slept yet for a long time and this whole thread really shows how much the bubble is misunderstood.


To answer your questions, assume these call ranges:

BB: any 2
SB: 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs (default maniac setting which is even too loose)
BTN: JJ+

It's +1.2% / $11.62

Now let's assume something else, with the same info as above, and if you want a minimum 0.5% edge, you push with:

Push hands: 77+,AJo+,ATs+ (8%)

[sofere]

This has developed into a very interesting thread.

My 2 cents:

Firstly, if folded around, BS may not put SS A-I. BS may want to try to keep shorty around so he can steal every the next few hands easily with any two. If this is the case, calling is the least risky way to get ITM, but hurts your chances at first tremendously.

If you call and BS pushes, SS might fold hoping you 2 go at it and pray for third. Or he'll call with his tremendous pot odds. If SS folds, you fold...SS is A-I next hand, you're 50/50 to make the money right there. If SS calls, you must call...you're well over 50/50 to make the money and can more than double up and have a good chance for first.

If BS is the type of player who would just take the pot odds and bust SS, folding is the safest way to get third.

If you push, BS will have a hard time calling without a very good hand. And you are a big favorite against the BBs any two.

IMO pushing is the best way to accumulate chips to prepare yourself for a charge for first. Calling and folding are close in my mind depending on read of BS.

[microbet]

You can't do that with Eastbays program as far as I can tell.

Using his tool (which doesn't allow the IF/THEN fold for BB) it is pretty much impossible to make this -$EV.

[uphigh_downlow]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I browsed through some of the replies here and there's a couple that make me happy that I play sng's to win $$$. /images/graemlins/wink.gif


[/ QUOTE ]

well, your reply has made me very happy as well.

I'm very glad that you would push any two here, coz I would definitely limp being the hero, with any real hand in that position. Pretty positive that there is a increaing number of players, who read these forums, and have started to blieve that all you have to do is push any 2 in a given spot everytime.


You better be wary if a good player limps from that spot. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I browsed through some of the replies here and there's a couple that make me happy that I play sng's to win $$$. /images/graemlins/wink.gif


[/ QUOTE ]

well, your reply has made me very happy as well.

I'm very glad that you would push any two here, coz I would definitely limp being the hero, with any real hand in that position. Pretty positive that there is a increaing number of players, who read these forums, and have started to blieve that all you have to do is push any 2 in a given spot everytime.


You better be wary if a good player limps from that spot. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I could care less if a "good" player limps in that spot because a GOOD player would have pushed from the beginning. They'd be a total idiot to limp in this position knowing I'll push and they'll risk getting eliminated here. As the big stack in this situation, I have NO fear of busting whereas even your aces can get outdrawn by me with you getting a 4th if BB folds and you bust. It's still early, but there will be many more people other than me that'll say they'll push any 2 over a limp here.

BTW, have you seen me play at all? I take great joy in being the big stack and love pushing with any 2 when the situation warrants it. If I suck out dirty on you, then so be it, but that's my privilege as the big stack. The only way for me not to exploit you in this situation is for you to push first.

[UMTerp]

Usher,

Is that 1.2% assuming that the BB folding if SB calls you?

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
Usher,

Is that 1.2% assuming that the BB folding if SB calls you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry but eastbay's program doesn't have those "if" situations. I just typed in all the available info in this thread with hand ranges mentioned. It's probably impossible to make this a -EV push though.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
To answer your questions, assume these call ranges:

BB: any 2
SB: 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs (default maniac setting which is even too loose)
BTN: JJ+

It's +1.2% / $11.62

Now let's assume something else, with the same info as above, and if you want a minimum 0.5% edge, you push with:

Push hands: 77+,AJo+,ATs+ (8%)

[/ QUOTE ]

As you pointed out the SB's range here is too loose. Why does he call with A2? I would push 66 here. I don't know about 55. I probably go to A9+ and KQ.

I'm pretty sure Curtains is going to post behind this saying only "I fold A9 here almost 100% of the time." or something like that.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

I could care less if a "good" player limps in that spot because a GOOD player would have pushed from the beginning. They'd be a total idiot to limp in this position knowing I'll push and they'll risk getting eliminated here.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if I have AA and I knew you'd push if I limped I'm a total idiot because I'm risking getting eliminated here?

Given the condescending nature of your replies, I'd have expected less stupid comments.

[uphigh_downlow]

Well maybe you should start caring, or maybe not. I dont know which is better.

If I limp with AA there and if I'm very positive that the short stack will fold hoping I bust out to your reraise, I stand to gain a fair bit of equity

around 5%

if you push any two. and you stand to lose a fair bit as well.

The important fact is that the limpers hand is not any random two. Limper ha extra information about his hand, which you dont.

Even if the short stack calls and sucks out, I might not gain much equity, but you would sure lose some with that play.

Fact is that a good player can eploit the situation either way, by limping and by not limping or by making a creative play. Not a single strategy is not exploitable unless its an optimal straegy. And usually optimal strategies dont have a huge +EV.

I'm sure you are a winning player. But you are just hoping to run into average run of the mill players, and exploit them with your stack. And there is plenty around to make your play profitable.

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I could care less if a "good" player limps in that spot because a GOOD player would have pushed from the beginning. They'd be a total idiot to limp in this position knowing I'll push and they'll risk getting eliminated here.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if I have AA and I knew you'd push if I limped I'm a total idiot because I'm risking getting eliminated here?

Given the condescending nature of your replies, I'd have expected less stupid comments.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like I said, please forgive me since I haven't slept yet and played pretty much all evening/early morning. /images/graemlins/wink.gif If you have AA UTG here and limp, then sure, you'll be able to exploit me by limping since you'll know I'll push, but you're risking elimination here more than you think. If I have 2 live cards, which I probably will have since it'll be very hard for me to get another combination of Ax, you have a decent shot of being eliminated. Sure, you'll double up most of the times, but it's a pretty big risk for you when I push over the top of you when you could have just done it yourself and have almost no risk on busting.

Here's a sample hand:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=369283
pokenum -h ad ac - ts 4h
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Ad 1475654 86.18 231317 13.51 5333 0.31 0.863
Ts 4h 231317 13.51 1475654 86.18 5333 0.31 0.137

or

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=416791
pokenum -h ad ac - js 9h
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Ad 1412831 82.51 294862 17.22 4611 0.27 0.826
Js 9h 294862 17.22 1412831 82.51 4611 0.27 0.174


Both hands were just examples, but still, you're taking on a risk that I'm not by limping here.

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
Well maybe you should start caring, or maybe not. I dont know which is better.

If I limp with AA there and if I'm very positive that the short stack will fold hoping I bust out to your reraise, I stand to gain a fair bit of equity

around 5% if you push any two. and you stand to lose a fair bit as well.

The important fact is that the limpers hand is not any random two. Limper ha extra information about his hand, which you dont.

Even if the short stack calls, I might not gain much equity, but you would sure lose some with that play.

[/ QUOTE ]

We're talking lots of if's already and you're not going to get AA here often enough to profit much by exploiting my tendency to push over a limper here. What's the difference of a limper here UTG and someone that mini-raises?

[UMTerp]

OK, here's my attempt at some longhand math.

You're pushing.

For simplicity, I'm assuming the Button folds, but it's safe to say that if he calls, you're in bad shape.

SB is calling with 22+, AX, KXs, any two nine or higher. This makes up 458 of the 1326 (0.3454) possible hold'em hands.

If SB calls, BB folds any two. If SB folds, BB calls any two.

If any of the above are way off, let me know, but I think they are reasonable.

According to PokerStove, 88 is 57.723% against SB's range. Also, 88 is 69.169% against two random cards.

Case 1: SB calls (happens 0.3454 of the time):

57.723% of the time:
175
3370 (you) - 33.26% by ICM
1910
4545

42.277% of the time you'll have 0% equity.

Case 2: SB folds, BB calls (happens 0.6546 of the time):

If you win (69.169% of the time):
0
2160 (you) - 30.14% by ICM
1910
5930

If you lose (30.831% of the time):
1100
1060 (you) - 17.00% by ICM
1910
5930

So, if you push, your equity = 0.3454 (0.57723 * 0.3326) + 0.6546 (0.69169 * 0.3014 + 0.30831 * 0.17) = 23.709%. And it's really slightly lower than that because I ignored the times that button had a monster.

I showed earlier that BOTH fold and call/fold are higher than that. I'll admit this is very very close, hence the long discussion. I think it's a slight leak if you consider this a "clear" push though.

[microbet]

I think limping is probably a good move here with AA and maybe KK, but big stack cannot put you on those hands because you limp.

The only way he could would be if he knew you very very very well, but if that's the case you could be screwing with him anyway. And if he does know you that well, he would be advertising that he can be exploited here.

[gumpzilla]

Of course, I'm also taking a risk by pushing without huge hands, because you could always wake up with JJ+. But you're not advocating folding because of that. It's kind of meaningless to talk about the risks associated with a play without also talking about the rewards if it succeeds.

Yes, I will bust reasonably frequently even if I take my AA against you. But most of the time I won't, and most of the time I'm now in strong position to compete for first, whereas I'm not really if I just bust the shorty here. Limping and playing it against the big stack if you knew you could seems to me like it has to be almost the best way to play AA here (the only better way would be to play the button, but that's less likely) because you can extract maximum value from it that way.

[jcm4ccc]

Great discussion. I've created a new thread with a poll.

[Voltron87]

I call/minraise, willing to sacrifice my 300 or 600 chips for 300 of BBs.

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course, I'm also taking a risk by pushing without huge hands, because you could always wake up with JJ+. But you're not advocating folding because of that. It's kind of meaningless to talk about the risks associated with a play without also talking about the rewards if it succeeds.

Yes, I will bust reasonably frequently even if I take my AA against you. But most of the time I won't, and most of the time I'm now in strong position to compete for first, whereas I'm not really if I just bust the shorty here. Limping and playing it against the big stack if you knew you could seems to me like it has to be almost the best way to play AA here (the only better way would be to play the button, but that's less likely) because you can extract maximum value from it that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I'd like to thank you guys since you gave me some fresh eyes on how to play AA in this situation as UTG/button, but I'd still prefer to push if I had it. I don't like the added aggravation of busting here trying to be too tricky. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[uphigh_downlow]

Dont you love poker?
/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
I call/minraise, willing to sacrifice my 300 or 600 chips for 300 of BBs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the right idea. You're not limping to "trap", like you would be with AA or KK. You're more or less buying insurance here, ans willing to lose the 300 chips should BB make a bad play (he HAS to call if you limp and SB pushes, he doesn't if you push and SB calls). If for some reason you limped, SB pushed, and BB folded, you're willing to lose those initial 300 chips you invested, because BB just made such a bad error that he increased your EV in the tournament even with 1200 chips in your stack rather than 1500.

[microbet]

I think your range for SB is too wide.

In your previous analysis of call/fold EV you didn't seem to allow for the possibility that short stack win the hand.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
I think limping is probably a good move here with AA and maybe KK, but big stack cannot put you on those hands because you limp.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with some of this. I think it's probably a good move even with QQ, but much beyond that it's iffy and would have to be looked at more carefully. Also, there are certain players who you can put on huge hands when they limp PF in the late game.

My response isn't supposed to suggest that you should be limping everything here, just that limping can be a good play with the right kinds of hands if you think the big stack is going to come over you with frequency. 88 isn't necessarily one of those hands, but let's take a quick look.

Let's assume big stack is pushing over me with any two. ICM tells me that if big stack pushes, BB folds and you call, you have 33% equity when you win, 0% when you lose. Now say you push, and we'll neglect for now the chances that anybody gets a big hand, and just say the shortstack calls from the SB. You now have 29% equity when you win, 17% when you lose. In both cases, we're assuming you're up against random hands. So how often do you need to beat a random hand before limping to draw a push from a random hand rather than going up against the BB is a good play? It looks like x = 17/21, or 81%, basically. That's quite high; in reality, it's probably a little lower since we're not considering the chance that button or big stack wakes up with a big hand if you push, but it's still very high. AA and KK meet this criterion, and QQ is borderline. But much lower than that and it's no go.

[sofere]

Wow, I think that range of hands is huge. Do you really think BS will call with K2s here? I highly doubt it. He has to put you on a small range of hands if you push in this situation. The only way he calls with K2 is if he's the type of player or thinks "Who is this guy kidding, I'm the BB, I don't care if I'm dominated I'll laugh when I suck out on my 3 outter (at best)"

I'd say the range would be A8s+, ATo+, 66+, KQ, maybe two broadway. And I'd say that is the loose end of it.

[Unarmed]

I didn't read all of this but:

Pushing is the unexploitable play.
Calling is fine if SB is a known fish because:

- He'll call and check down pretty much every hand to help bust out the BB.
- He'll call with a fairly liberal range of hands if you push, the bulk of which either have you dominated or coin flipping.

[TheUsher]

In a 109, the SB call range is much much tighter. Can you do a separate calculation for a much tighter range? Say something like 44+,A2s+,A2o+,KTs+,KJo+. Even that's probably a very loose range in reality if you pushed with 5xBB UTG. I'd rather see a calculation for that range since I'd expect that more from an average PP player who would call there.

Personally, my standards are very tight there in the SB as I wouldn't have a reason to get involved if you pushed.

[shejk]

If utg open pushes, as the big stack I'd fold a LOT more than you assume. I'm not saying this is the best way to play here as the sb, but I'd play something like AT+, KQ, 77+.

[uphigh_downlow]

Thats the last thing I wanted to do.

Create a monster.

But I think all of this balances itelf out, in creating an uncertainity about the holding of UTG here.

Thats why it will be a long time, before any computer will be able to compete at a high level in this game.

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
Thats the last thing I wanted to do.

Create a monster.

But I think all of this balances itelf out, in creating an uncertainity about the holding of UTG here.

Thats why it will be a long time, before any computer will be able to compete at a high level in this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't go and edit my comments anymore since it's been a long time, but all my advice here has been for 109's. Obviously, this would also apply to 215's and above, and some 55's. Sorry for the confusion.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call/minraise, willing to sacrifice my 300 or 600 chips for 300 of BBs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the right idea. You're not limping to "trap", like you would be with AA or KK. You're more or less buying insurance here, ans willing to lose the 300 chips should BB make a bad play (he HAS to call if you limp and SB pushes, he doesn't if you push and SB calls). If for some reason you limped, SB pushed, and BB folded, you're willing to lose those initial 300 chips you invested, because BB just made such a bad error that he increased your EV in the tournament even with 1200 chips in your stack rather than 1500.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do this a lot...its a nice way to hedge yourself. But, as I said before, SB SHOULD detect right away and put you to a decision. I need to know FIRST that BS is on the passive side to do this.

That said, this is not an easy hand to play. My only advice is that whatever you do, remember how you SHOULD play as BS and give the BS in this scenario the same respect you afford yourself.

[berya]

Didn't read all of the responses but my standard play here is to just call. If SB or button pushes and BB folds then I fold. If BB calls I call as well.

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call/minraise, willing to sacrifice my 300 or 600 chips for 300 of BBs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the right idea. You're not limping to "trap", like you would be with AA or KK. You're more or less buying insurance here, ans willing to lose the 300 chips should BB make a bad play (he HAS to call if you limp and SB pushes, he doesn't if you push and SB calls). If for some reason you limped, SB pushed, and BB folded, you're willing to lose those initial 300 chips you invested, because BB just made such a bad error that he increased your EV in the tournament even with 1200 chips in your stack rather than 1500.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do this a lot...its a nice way to hedge yourself. But, as I said before, SB SHOULD detect right away and put you to a decision. I need to know FIRST that BS is on the passive side to do this.

That said, this is not an easy hand to play. My only advice is that whatever you do, remember how you SHOULD play as BS and give the BS in this scenario the same respect you afford yourself.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm ok with the big stack putting me "to the test", that's the whole point. Either the BB is put all in or crippled, that is the point.

[adanthar]

I minraise in this spot to all but complete donkeys and have posted similar hands before when I've done it with hands like ATo etc.

Of course, I call a push regardless of the BB. Realistically, there is no hand that calls when I push that folds to a minraise, and those that push back at me when I've put half my stack in are often those 'any two' 70/30 dogs. Losing FE isn't something I horribly care about, and most good players (ie, the 'push any two' crowd) should probably realize that seeing as how I've just minraised half my stack.

Primarily, the point of the minraise rather than a push is so I can get out in the rare 'button pushes, SB calls', or 'SB calls, shortie calls, the flop is AKQ' situation. If the SB knows to push two cards *on the flop* into someone who showed strength prior to an AKQ flop to keep the bubble going, he's probably already told me he's a trout and this hand plays out differently (now, I push).

Etc. etc. but you get the idea.

[microbet]

If you limp, then SB pushes, BB is not likely to fold. Half those times you have 300 less chips and BB has 800 more.

[stupidsucker]

I find this thread interesting.

EZ push not so EZ.

[ QUOTE ]
No real reads. I had stolen the blinds on the previous hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are times you play for first

There are times you play for the money.


I pause, pause , and pause, then I bet half my stack. Fold to SB all in unless BB comes too, then I call.

[uphigh_downlow]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, here's my attempt at some longhand math.

You're pushing.

For simplicity, I'm assuming the Button folds, but it's safe to say that if he calls, you're in bad shape.

SB is calling with 22+, AX, KXs, any two nine or higher. This makes up 458 of the 1326 (0.3454) possible hold'em hands.

If SB calls, BB folds any two. If SB folds, BB calls any two.

If any of the above are way off, let me know, but I think they are reasonable.

According to PokerStove, 88 is 57.723% against SB's range. Also, 88 is 69.169% against two random cards.

Case 1: SB calls (happens 0.3454 of the time):

57.723% of the time:
175
3370 (you) - 33.26% by ICM
1910
4545

42.277% of the time you'll have 0% equity.

Case 2: SB folds, BB calls (happens 0.6546 of the time):

If you win (69.169% of the time):
0
2160 (you) - 30.14% by ICM
1910
5930

If you lose (30.831% of the time):
1100
1060 (you) - 17.00% by ICM
1910
5930

So, if you push, your equity = 0.3454 (0.57723 * 0.3326) + 0.6546 (0.69169 * 0.3014 + 0.30831 * 0.17) = 23.709%. And it's really slightly lower than that because I ignored the times that button had a monster.

I showed earlier that BOTH fold and call/fold are higher than that. I'll admit this is very very close, hence the long discussion. I think it's a slight leak if you consider this a "clear" push though.

[/ QUOTE ]

what you really need to do is assign our UTG Hero a hand range, that he could make this play with, and then compute a break-evel call range for the SB. This range is from the perspective of the SB.

That might be the worst case. Or maybe not. I dont know which would be worse. If SB thinks that hero has raised with a wide range or a tight range. In any case SB isnt going to call here unless he think he has +EV from this outcome. You need to consider all thoe factors before computing any equity.

In any case, Hero can then have a much weaker raising range, since his FE with SB is higher.

There are way too many parameters to decide the correct course of action here.

I maintain that pushing seems the best play.

The call-fold is interesting, but untested yet. It would be great if you would provide some more numbers.

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
In your previous analysis of call/fold EV you didn't seem to allow for the possibility that short stack win the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't consider the possibilty that hero won the hand either - that number was specifically if heor limped, then was forced to lay down preflop.

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
In a 109, the SB call range is much much tighter. Can you do a separate calculation for a much tighter range? Say something like 44+,A2s+,A2o+,KTs+,KJo+. Even that's probably a very loose range in reality if you pushed with 5xBB UTG. I'd rather see a calculation for that range since I'd expect that more from an average PP player who would call there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll run that range tonight when I get home - I've "wasted" enough company time on this already. My gut tells me that it will be in the mid 24%'s, but also keep in mind that I ignored the chance that button called (JJ+, maybe AK). That might lower it half a percent or so too.

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call/minraise, willing to sacrifice my 300 or 600 chips for 300 of BBs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the right idea. You're not limping to "trap", like you would be with AA or KK. You're more or less buying insurance here, ans willing to lose the 300 chips should BB make a bad play (he HAS to call if you limp and SB pushes, he doesn't if you push and SB calls). If for some reason you limped, SB pushed, and BB folded, you're willing to lose those initial 300 chips you invested, because BB just made such a bad error that he increased your EV in the tournament even with 1200 chips in your stack rather than 1500.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do this a lot...its a nice way to hedge yourself. But, as I said before, SB SHOULD detect right away and put you to a decision. I need to know FIRST that BS is on the passive side to do this.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing is, I don't even mind playing this hand for all my chips, provided BB does too. That's what limping helps to ensure.

[shejk]

If you compute this for another range you should make it tight proper imo. Say 77+, A8+, KQ.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call/minraise, willing to sacrifice my 300 or 600 chips for 300 of BBs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the right idea. You're not limping to "trap", like you would be with AA or KK. You're more or less buying insurance here, ans willing to lose the 300 chips should BB make a bad play (he HAS to call if you limp and SB pushes, he doesn't if you push and SB calls). If for some reason you limped, SB pushed, and BB folded, you're willing to lose those initial 300 chips you invested, because BB just made such a bad error that he increased your EV in the tournament even with 1200 chips in your stack rather than 1500.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do this a lot...its a nice way to hedge yourself. But, as I said before, SB SHOULD detect right away and put you to a decision. I need to know FIRST that BS is on the passive side to do this.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing is, I don't even mind playing this hand for all my chips, provided BB does too. That's what limping helps to ensure.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see, so...you limp/minraise if BB comes your in even if SB or button is too. you LImp /minraise if SB/button pushes and BB folds you're out?

Next hand you're still a 50/50 to make money? I like it...

But you are laying it down if there's raise behind you and BB folds right?

Terp, I like this line...sold.

[reecelights]

Plus, if the BB folds here, he has 175 in a 150 SB postion. Either you get to try to bust him for free, or someone else steals your blind and busts him for you. Or, if he folds, he is stuck with only 25 chips if he folds again hoping for you to bust. I know it's not playing for first, but seems a more sure way to eliminate SS. I think it is a play with some merit, and stronger than an UTG fold.

FWIW, I push, even though it's two hands in a row. If I haven't already been stealing a lot, I think it sets up calls later by BS and MidStack when you have even bigger holdings than 88 because they were suspicious.

[UMTerp]

OK, new calcs with Usher's range:

You're pushing.

For simplicity, I'm assuming the Button folds, but it's safe to say that if he calls, you're in bad shape.

SB is calling with 44+, any ace, KTs+, KJo+. This makes up 294 of the 1326 (0.2217) possible hold'em hands.

If SB calls, BB folds any two. If SB folds, BB calls any two.

If any of the above are way off, let me know, but I think they are reasonable.

According to PokerStove, 88 is 57.660% against SB's range. Also, 88 is 69.169% against two random cards.

Case 1: SB calls (happens 0.2217 of the time):

57.660% of the time:
175
3370 (you) - 33.26% by ICM
1910
4545

42.240% of the time you'll have 0% equity.

Case 2: SB folds, BB calls (happens 0.7783 of the time):

If you win (69.169% of the time):
0
2160 (you) - 30.14% by ICM
1910
5930

If you lose (30.831% of the time):
1100
1060 (you) - 17.00% by ICM
1910
5930

So, if you push, your equity = 0.2217 (0.57660 * 0.3326) + 0.7783 (0.69169 * 0.3014 + 0.30831 * 0.17) = 24.557%. And it's really slightly lower than that because I ignored the times that button had a monster. Still far from clear. Just adding in th 1%-2% of the time you're called by the button would probably lower it back down to 24% or so.

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
I minraise in this spot to all but complete donkeys and have posted similar hands before when I've done it with hands like ATo etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does minraising accomplish that limping doesn't?

Is it just away to assure that SB doesn't complete and BB check? Seems like too many chips to risk for not so much added value.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call/minraise, willing to sacrifice my 300 or 600 chips for 300 of BBs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the right idea. You're not limping to "trap", like you would be with AA or KK. You're more or less buying insurance here, ans willing to lose the 300 chips should BB make a bad play (he HAS to call if you limp and SB pushes, he doesn't if you push and SB calls). If for some reason you limped, SB pushed, and BB folded, you're willing to lose those initial 300 chips you invested, because BB just made such a bad error that he increased your EV in the tournament even with 1200 chips in your stack rather than 1500.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do this a lot...its a nice way to hedge yourself. But, as I said before, SB SHOULD detect right away and put you to a decision. I need to know FIRST that BS is on the passive side to do this.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing is, I don't even mind playing this hand for all my chips, provided BB does too. That's what limping helps to ensure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Say u limp and Button folds SB calls and BB pushes the rest in. You: Push, right?

Say you minraise button folds SB calls and BB calls,

Flop comes KQ2 2 suits...SB pushes...you?

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

The thing is, I don't even mind playing this hand for all my chips, provided BB does too. That's what limping helps to ensure.

[/ QUOTE ]

My gut ranks the options as follows:
Limp (fold if BB doesn't come along, call if BB does)
Minraise (fold if BB doesn't come along, call if BB does)
Push
Fold

Btw, all options are +$EV. It's a matter of finding the one that should be most +$EV.

Yugoslav

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
Say you minraise button folds SB calls and BB calls,

Flop comes KQ2 2 suits...SB pushes...you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold, and then punch my monitor if the SB made that bet with air. I doubt he would, since the side pot is more or less dry. Though I wouldn't minraise in the first place.

[ QUOTE ]

Say u limp and Button folds SB calls and BB pushes the rest in. You: Push, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, push. I don't mind playing this hand for my stack as long as little stack does too.

[ewing55]

I'm a rookie so take this with a *BIG* grain of salt.

Why not bet t475. That guarantees BB won't get a free ride. If SB pushes and BB folds wanting you to get 4th, just fold and give up your 475. You'll still have 1060 and BB will post a 150 blind leaving him 25. You're *almost* guaranteed $$$.

If SB pushes and BB also pushes, then you can call and be in the pot. You're in trouble if BB wins the main pot and SB wins the side pot, but I think that is worth the risk.

If SB defers to you to take on BB, either you have a great hand or you win the blinds. SB has got to stop and think about what you have. He may have pure crap and might be willing to fold. If I was SB I think I would instantly understand what was going on. (Hero has monster, but doesn't want to risk 4th and SB won't know what BB will do.)

With this strategy you don't allow SB to keep BB alive and you keep the possibility of playing your hand.

If you just call, what if SB and BB also just call. You are left with a lot of unanswered questions on the flop.

Of course I'm just a rookie, I could be wrong.

-------------Jeff

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not bet t475.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you can't...blinds at 300, minimum raise would be to 600.

[microbet]

limp vs. minraise

I think limping gives you a better shot for BB to come along, whatever SB does. It also leaves you with more chips when SB pushes, BB folds and you fold.

Minraise, will get more folds out of SB.

push vs. min-raise

pushing will get more folds out of SB.



Seems to me like the biggest problem with not pushing is when SB pushes, BB folds and you have to fold, and that that will happen a lot (SB probably is aggressive) so it seems to me at the moment that limping is better than min-raise.

I think the whole thing hinges on what impact pushing vs. either other option has on SB's range and I think it will be substantial.

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
How am I supposed to get a [flame thingy] for my post if you guys are posting in 2 different threads?


[/ QUOTE ]

With posts like this...just tryin to help the cause.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I minraise in this spot to all but complete donkeys and have posted similar hands before when I've done it with hands like ATo etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does minraising accomplish that limping doesn't?

Is it just away to assure that SB doesn't complete and BB check? Seems like too many chips to risk for not so much added value.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree...if the whole objective in not pushing or folding is to make sure the BB comes in, then limping accomplishes this and minraising is merely a waste of 300 more chips.

I must say after having digested this hand I feel that a limp is slightly better than pushing...It is just like buying an insurance policy for 300 and if in the event that SB/button push and BB folds you can bail...Why pay 600 for a policy that gives only slightly more coverage than the other policy?

One thing that ICM will not help us with much here is how often you will be, in effect, folding this limp. IOW, what % of the time (generally) will scenario 1. and 2. present themselves.

Scenario 1. being SB pushes BB folds
Scenario 2. being SB pushes BB calls

These are highly player dependent situations above and hand ranges are futile in pointing out what will happen I think.

[microbet]

Here's my attempt to help.

http://www.yasmine.net/images/yasmine.gif

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How am I supposed to get a [flame thingy] for my post if you guys are posting in 2 different threads?


[/ QUOTE ]

With posts like this...just tryin to help the cause.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to help you, Phil. I'm just going to randomly call people idiots.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
"call"

[/ QUOTE ]

Idiot.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]



There are times you play for first

There are times you play for the money.


I pause, pause , and pause, then I bet half my stack. Fold to SB all in unless BB comes too, then I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Idiot.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]

Btw, all options are +$EV. It's a matter of finding the one that should be most +$EV.

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

Idiot.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]

The thing is, I don't even mind playing this hand for all my chips, provided BB does too. That's what limping helps to ensure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Idiot.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]

I havent done the math yet, but its obvious that you need to compare what happens if I call-fold and what happens if I push or what if I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Idiot.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
I must say after having digested this hand I feel that a limp is slightly better than pushing...It is just like buying an insurance policy for 300 and if in the event that SB/button push and BB folds you can bail...Why pay 600 for a policy that gives only slightly more coverage than the other policy?


[/ QUOTE ]

If you limp, there is a significant chance that the big stack will limp as well, since it isn't costing him that much. If he then decides to bet on the flop, I'm going to be in a really annnoying spot when the flop inevitably contains overcards to my 88.

With a min-raise, the big stack is much more likely to fold and get out of the way.

I'm not advocating limping or min-raising or pushing. I'm just pointing out that you do get something from min-raising that the limp doesn't provide.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]

If you limp, there is a significant chance that the big stack will limp as well, since it isn't costing him that much. If he then decides to bet on the flop, I'm going to be in a really annnoying spot when the flop inevitably contains overcards to my 88.


[/ QUOTE ]

The opponent that will complete after you limp in AND bluff you off the better hand post flop isn't all that common IMO.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The thing is, I don't even mind playing this hand for all my chips, provided BB does too. That's what limping helps to ensure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Idiot.

[/ QUOTE ]


Wow. I think jcm4ccc has guarenteed my http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/images/hottopic.gif by flaming everyone in this thread.

Well done.

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The thing is, I don't even mind playing this hand for all my chips, provided BB does too. That's what limping helps to ensure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Idiot.

[/ QUOTE ]


Wow. I think jcm4ccc has guarenteed my http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/images/hottopic.gif by flaming everyone in this thread.

Well done.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm really surprised this thread has generated so many replies, I think it is a pretty simple situation.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If you limp, there is a significant chance that the big stack will limp as well, since it isn't costing him that much. If he then decides to bet on the flop, I'm going to be in a really annnoying spot when the flop inevitably contains overcards to my 88.


[/ QUOTE ]

The opponent that will complete after you limp in AND bluff you off the better hand post flop isn't all that common IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't mean to imply that this was a common occurance, but it does happen. He doesn't need to be bluffing either. If the flop comes QJ7, he may well bet with x7. Not a bluff, but very annoying.

[bluefeet]

about dead....so? what did you do? what happened?

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

what happened?

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't important or even relevant.

It would be interesting to hear how Phil treats such situations though and his reasoning...

Yugoslav

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]

about dead....so? what did you do? what happened?

[/ QUOTE ]

I pushed, of course. I had AQ when I stole on the previous hand, and was too slow to click back and show my hand after everyone folded. I was bit concerned about my FE when pushing the 2nd hand in a row.

I see other reasonable people limp and min-raise in this spot and I was just wondering what other people do here.

I was even more curious after the big stack turned over AA, and the short stack typed "thanks" in the chat.

[bluefeet]

My apologies. You are most certainly correct.

I would still like to know which option he chose and why. Phil?

[pooh74]

I pushed, of course. I had AQ when I stole on the previous hand, and was too slow to click back and show my hand after everyone folded. I was bit concerned about my FE when pushing the 2nd hand in a row.

This is a new problem of mine now that I 4 table. Not being able to show this hand is frustrating. Obviously had no bearing here.

[durron597]

Cards happen. You play goot.

[iMsoLucky0]

I read through the first 20 or so replies, and I can't believe some of the answers here. I couldn't stomach any more of the craziness.

This is a push, and it ISN'T CLOSE.

I don't even think there is anything to consider here. I push this hand 100% of the time, and am happy with whatever happens.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

what happened?

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't important or even relevant.

It would be interesting to hear how Phil treats such situations though and his reasoning...

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]


I was obviously in push/fold mode, and folding is pathetic.

I suppose min-betting or limping could be a slightly better play against certain opponents, but I certainly didnt have the reads or the time to figure all this out.

When I posted, I pretty much expected to get only 1 reply that said something like: "Just push you weak, results-oriented donkey".

[sofere]

PVS...

[sofere]

DO THE...

[sofere]

HONORS!!!!!!! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Phoenix1010]

Flame on. Uh, I think I'd push it by the way. Seems like minraising has merit as well. Good discussion.

[Phil Van Sexton]

100 posts and no holla, and no snide comments from curtains. Must be a record.

Tomorrow I'll post a hand that I won.

[jcm4ccc]

Just push, you weak results-oriented donkey.

End of discussion.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling is the worst option. Here's what happens: the SB puts you all-in (you've shown weakness, after all), the BB folds (conceivably, since he now realizes that you may go out in 4th place), and now you either fold for a loss of 300 chips, or you are in a coin flip with the SB (who has a good chance of having 2 overcards to your 88).

Look at what the chip count will be if you call, the SB pushes, the BB folds, and you fold. SB has 6980 chips, the BB has 175 chips, you have 1235 chips, and the button has 1910 chips. If the SB wasn't bullying before, he may start now.

Folding is second worst. The button won't push unless he has a real hand. He is comfortably in second place, he is pushing through the big stack, and he doesn't want to double up the BB unnecessarily (if he pushes and the BB calls and doubles up, then he is down to 1435 chips and the BB has 1100 chips). That leaves it up to the SB to take out the BB. The SB may fold if he wants to bully the table. If not, then you have to figure the chances are 50/50 that he will double up the BB. So there's a decent chance that the BB will survive this round if you fold, with the blinds hitting you next.

Close your eyes and push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think folding is worse than calling. As much as you may like to bully when you have a big stack, there are a ton of people on partypoker, whom even with a big stack want to help gang up on the small stack. I wouldn't expect a raise from the SB with any 2.

Anyway I'd move allin preflop, and I think it's very very easy.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is an automatic push and it's not even close. If you're at my table, and limp here UTG, I guarantee you that I'll push my SB here (if I'm big stack SB) with any 2. And that's a given. If you fold, you're folding the best hand and playing for 3rd. What other option is there but to push? Any type of hange range you'd put the other stacks on and it's still a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Run the ICM's if:

If you push, button would only call AA-JJ. The big stack would call any ace, any suited king, any pair, and any two cards 9 or higher. The BB would fold any two cards if you get a call. The BB calls any two if both of the others fold.

I'm not certain that pushing would be +$EV.

Can eastbay's tool do something like that? I'm not too familiar with it.

[/ QUOTE ]


88 is the freaking nuts here, it's such a clear allin. Even if you get called loosely by the two bigger stacks its +EV even with the tiny stack in the BB. People need to stop overanalyzing these situations with a tiny stack and thinking about doing weird stuff like calling (although I still think calling is better than folding.)

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I browsed through some of the replies here and there's a couple that make me happy that I play sng's to win $$$. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

This is an automatic push and it's not even close. If you're at my table, and limp here UTG, I guarantee you that I'll push my SB here (if I'm big stack SB) with any 2. And that's a given. If you fold, you're folding the best hand and playing for 3rd. What other option is there but to push? Any type of hange range you'd put the other stacks on and it's still a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly right. Unless SB has no clue how to play the BS he should push you with any two on a limp. I cannot think of a better scenario for him/her to do so.

This is tailor scripted for big stack to exert maximum pressure on hero.

Let me ask this....who here as BS would not push over hero's limp...and what would be you push range if hero limped in?

My range in white:

<font color="white">it's a trick question...the cards dont matter here AT ALL </font>

[/ QUOTE ]


Too many people have assigned optimum play to the SB here (assuming they will push any 2), whereas at the same time assigned sub-optimal play to the BB after this push (assuming they will fold to this push.) If the SB pushes, the BB should almost surely call with any 2 cards here. How can we just assume one player will always play correctly whereas the other will play like a moron and fold.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
I minraise in this spot to all but complete donkeys and have posted similar hands before when I've done it with hands like ATo etc.

Of course, I call a push regardless of the BB. Realistically, there is no hand that calls when I push that folds to a minraise, and those that push back at me when I've put half my stack in are often those 'any two' 70/30 dogs. Losing FE isn't something I horribly care about, and most good players (ie, the 'push any two' crowd) should probably realize that seeing as how I've just minraised half my stack.

Primarily, the point of the minraise rather than a push is so I can get out in the rare 'button pushes, SB calls', or 'SB calls, shortie calls, the flop is AKQ' situation. If the SB knows to push two cards *on the flop* into someone who showed strength prior to an AKQ flop to keep the bubble going, he's probably already told me he's a trout and this hand plays out differently (now, I push).

Etc. etc. but you get the idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this line is terrible. First of all you are going to obviously encourage the SB here, which you definitely DON'T want to do. Too many people will move allin over the top sensing weakness.

Why is everyone trying to make hands like this into rocket science? Just go allin!!!!!!

(btw misread some stuff in your original post so I don't think it's "TERRIBLE", but I'm not a fan. I don't like to make plays that have some undesirable side effects just for the ridiculously small chance that the button+SB move allin. I really do think this shuold make the SB more likely to call or move allin, in almost all situations too.)

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I browsed through some of the replies here and there's a couple that make me happy that I play sng's to win $$$. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

This is an automatic push and it's not even close. If you're at my table, and limp here UTG, I guarantee you that I'll push my SB here (if I'm big stack SB) with any 2. And that's a given. If you fold, you're folding the best hand and playing for 3rd. What other option is there but to push? Any type of hange range you'd put the other stacks on and it's still a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly right. Unless SB has no clue how to play the BS he should push you with any two on a limp. I cannot think of a better scenario for him/her to do so.

This is tailor scripted for big stack to exert maximum pressure on hero.

Let me ask this....who here as BS would not push over hero's limp...and what would be you push range if hero limped in?

My range in white:

<font color="white">it's a trick question...the cards dont matter here AT ALL </font>

[/ QUOTE ]


Too many people have assigned optimum play to the SB here (assuming they will push any 2), whereas at the same time assigned sub-optimal play to the BB after this push (assuming they will fold to this push.) If the SB pushes, the BB should almost surely call with any 2 cards here. How can we just assume one player will always play correctly whereas the other will play like a moron and fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think if both hero and SB are all in that BB should call? I dont think I am assigning him sub-optimal play at all. uh...you are. Correct me if I misunderstood what you are saying.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I browsed through some of the replies here and there's a couple that make me happy that I play sng's to win $$$. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

This is an automatic push and it's not even close. If you're at my table, and limp here UTG, I guarantee you that I'll push my SB here (if I'm big stack SB) with any 2. And that's a given. If you fold, you're folding the best hand and playing for 3rd. What other option is there but to push? Any type of hange range you'd put the other stacks on and it's still a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly right. Unless SB has no clue how to play the BS he should push you with any two on a limp. I cannot think of a better scenario for him/her to do so.

This is tailor scripted for big stack to exert maximum pressure on hero.

Let me ask this....who here as BS would not push over hero's limp...and what would be you push range if hero limped in?

My range in white:

<font color="white">it's a trick question...the cards dont matter here AT ALL </font>

[/ QUOTE ]


Too many people have assigned optimum play to the SB here (assuming they will push any 2), whereas at the same time assigned sub-optimal play to the BB after this push (assuming they will fold to this push.) If the SB pushes, the BB should almost surely call with any 2 cards here. How can we just assume one player will always play correctly whereas the other will play like a moron and fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think if both hero and SB are all in that BB should call? I dont think I am assigning him sub-optimal play at all. uh...you are. Correct me if I misunderstood what you are saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, if hero LIMPS and SB goes allin, BB should call.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
100 posts and no holla, and no snide comments from curtains. Must be a record.

Tomorrow I'll post a hand that I won.

[/ QUOTE ]


I was asleep man, hard to wake up before 4 pm these days. I hate calling so much but its possible it's not as bad as I am making it out to be.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I browsed through some of the replies here and there's a couple that make me happy that I play sng's to win $$$. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

This is an automatic push and it's not even close. If you're at my table, and limp here UTG, I guarantee you that I'll push my SB here (if I'm big stack SB) with any 2. And that's a given. If you fold, you're folding the best hand and playing for 3rd. What other option is there but to push? Any type of hange range you'd put the other stacks on and it's still a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly right. Unless SB has no clue how to play the BS he should push you with any two on a limp. I cannot think of a better scenario for him/her to do so.

This is tailor scripted for big stack to exert maximum pressure on hero.

Let me ask this....who here as BS would not push over hero's limp...and what would be you push range if hero limped in?

My range in white:

<font color="white">it's a trick question...the cards dont matter here AT ALL </font>

[/ QUOTE ]


Too many people have assigned optimum play to the SB here (assuming they will push any 2), whereas at the same time assigned sub-optimal play to the BB after this push (assuming they will fold to this push.) If the SB pushes, the BB should almost surely call with any 2 cards here. How can we just assume one player will always play correctly whereas the other will play like a moron and fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think if both hero and SB are all in that BB should call? I dont think I am assigning him sub-optimal play at all. uh...you are. Correct me if I misunderstood what you are saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, if hero LIMPS and SB goes allin, BB should call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok fine...then Hero should call too. There WILL be times when hero limps, sb pushes and BB will fold in hopes that hero will yet call. Although, perhaps suboptimal, still a possibility...whether it is worth playing/planning for is what this thread is about I guess.

[treeofwisdom7]

HOLY [censored] EVERYONE AND THEIR MOMMA REPLYED TO THIS POST.. im not gonna read it all but im sticking with call 2 callers against BB push will reduce his odds no matter what.. if his odds are 30% then your odds ITM is at least 70%

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I browsed through some of the replies here and there's a couple that make me happy that I play sng's to win $$$. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

This is an automatic push and it's not even close. If you're at my table, and limp here UTG, I guarantee you that I'll push my SB here (if I'm big stack SB) with any 2. And that's a given. If you fold, you're folding the best hand and playing for 3rd. What other option is there but to push? Any type of hange range you'd put the other stacks on and it's still a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly right. Unless SB has no clue how to play the BS he should push you with any two on a limp. I cannot think of a better scenario for him/her to do so.

This is tailor scripted for big stack to exert maximum pressure on hero.

Let me ask this....who here as BS would not push over hero's limp...and what would be you push range if hero limped in?

My range in white:

<font color="white">it's a trick question...the cards dont matter here AT ALL </font>

[/ QUOTE ]


Too many people have assigned optimum play to the SB here (assuming they will push any 2), whereas at the same time assigned sub-optimal play to the BB after this push (assuming they will fold to this push.) If the SB pushes, the BB should almost surely call with any 2 cards here. How can we just assume one player will always play correctly whereas the other will play like a moron and fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think if both hero and SB are all in that BB should call? I dont think I am assigning him sub-optimal play at all. uh...you are. Correct me if I misunderstood what you are saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, if hero LIMPS and SB goes allin, BB should call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok fine...then Hero should call too. There WILL be times when hero limps, sb pushes and BB will fold in hopes that hero will yet call. Although, perhaps suboptimal, still a possibility...whether it is worth playing/planning for is what this thread is about I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know, I just get the sense from everyone's tone that if you do happen to call, that SB is obviously going to just push with any 2 cards. I don't think will usually be the case. Note that I advocate open pushing anyway.

[sofere]

My momma says to call, but she's conservative and always goes for third...I still say push.

[FieryJustice]

I have not read over the other million replies, but if you dont push here, you do not know what you are doing.

Jcardshark

[jgunnip]

This has been a very interesting and thought provoking read, thanks to all.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I browsed through some of the replies here and there's a couple that make me happy that I play sng's to win $$$. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

This is an automatic push and it's not even close. If you're at my table, and limp here UTG, I guarantee you that I'll push my SB here (if I'm big stack SB) with any 2. And that's a given. If you fold, you're folding the best hand and playing for 3rd. What other option is there but to push? Any type of hange range you'd put the other stacks on and it's still a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly right. Unless SB has no clue how to play the BS he should push you with any two on a limp. I cannot think of a better scenario for him/her to do so.

This is tailor scripted for big stack to exert maximum pressure on hero.

Let me ask this....who here as BS would not push over hero's limp...and what would be you push range if hero limped in?

My range in white:

<font color="white">it's a trick question...the cards dont matter here AT ALL </font>

[/ QUOTE ]


Too many people have assigned optimum play to the SB here (assuming they will push any 2), whereas at the same time assigned sub-optimal play to the BB after this push (assuming they will fold to this push.) If the SB pushes, the BB should almost surely call with any 2 cards here. How can we just assume one player will always play correctly whereas the other will play like a moron and fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think if both hero and SB are all in that BB should call? I dont think I am assigning him sub-optimal play at all. uh...you are. Correct me if I misunderstood what you are saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, if hero LIMPS and SB goes allin, BB should call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok fine...then Hero should call too. There WILL be times when hero limps, sb pushes and BB will fold in hopes that hero will yet call. Although, perhaps suboptimal, still a possibility...whether it is worth playing/planning for is what this thread is about I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know, I just get the sense from everyone's tone that if you do happen to call, that SB is obviously going to just push with any 2 cards. I don't think will usually be the case. Note that I advocate open pushing anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the limping line and pushing line are both good plays for different reasons.

If you look at both lines over a few hundred trials each I think the push line will obviously lead to more 1sts and 2nds and 4ths in the distribution and the limp line will have more 3rds but at the same time more ITMs overall.

I'm tired of flip flopping on this one. Ill just stick with "dont fold".

[treeofwisdom7]

[ QUOTE ]
I have not read over the other million replies, but if you dont push here, you do not know what you are doing.

Jcardshark

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont know what im doing. i call

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
I have not read over the other million replies, but if you dont read the thread, you do not know what you are replying to.

Jcardshark

[/ QUOTE ]

[Moonsugar]

I don't know why I wasted 1/2 my afternoon doing ICM calculations on this cause I knew it was very close.

Don't ask me to post all my work cause I will not. In all cases I assume button does nothing. It will be a rare event for him to do anything so for sake of simplicity I assume he folds.

If you fold and then everyone folds to the BB (which is proper play in almost all cases) then your equity is 23% of the pool. The only times your equity goes up over pushing is if you fold is when bb loses (28%) or bb folds to a raise (26%), these cases are rare.

If you call with the intention of folding to an all in by the SB (which many on here say is the proper play) your equity is about 23% of the prize pool (as long as BB calls, which he should).

If you call with the intention of calling once BB calls after a SB push your equity is about 22%.

If you push your equity is about 25% assuming SB is a reasonably tight caller (AA-77, AK-A7, KQ) and BB calls. If SB is looser your equity goes up.

So it seems pushing wins, but not by as much the push fans think, I imagine.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"call"


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Idiot.

[/ QUOTE ]

What? Very subjective. How about "tool"?

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
If you fold and then everyone folds to the BB (which is proper play in almost all cases) then your equity is 23% of the pool. The only times your equity goes up over pushing is if you fold is when bb loses (28%) or bb folds to a raise (26%), these cases are rare.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is it rare that BB loses? Should happen about 50% of the time.

Secondly a 2% jump is huge IMO (from 23% to 25%). If that is the case then this is a very clear push.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway I'd move allin preflop, and I think it's very very easy.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Moonsugar]

[ QUOTE ]

Why is it rare that BB loses?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because all should fold to him.

[sofere]

Not every Big stack will fold to the Shorty. In fact, I would dare say that most wouldn't. Big stack is getting 3:1 on putting the shorty all-in and many people don't think about keeping the bubble alive intentially.

[Moonsugar]

Ok, if we assume that sb never folds then 88's equity in this case would be 24%. If he folds more than 0% then equity approaches 23% the more he folds. This is in the case of all folding to the SB.

We are approaching arguing over rounding errors.

[sofere]

I was arguing more over the theory that you were using...I wasn't about to try to run the numbers right now, but again if ICM moves from 24% by folding to 25% by pushing, that isn't even close to being close and makes this a very easy, clear cut push.

[raptor517]

ok i havent really read all of these responses, but it alarms me as to how many there actually are.. anyways, i dont see very many ways to play this hand. i push. period. i dont try to get tricky with it. if you min-raise, do you plan on calling a push from the sb? if i was the sb here, and hero or button min raised, i would push with 23 (any 2 cards). then what do you do with 88? call for a coinflip? the big stack advantage is being allowed to suckout. you dont have that luxury. therefore, mini raising is AWFUL.

ok, lets look at the other option. limping. here is what limping does for you. it gives you an option to get it in against the sb if he pushes AND the BB calls. THIS way, you only have to beat one of them to stay alive. this method is risky, but can gain u a lot of chips. i dont necessarily like it though, as i think straight up pushing is quite a bit better.

if you push and the BB doubles and no one else calls, then he has 1100 chips and you are down to 1060.. before eating the 450 in blinds. thats not good, however, you have 88, and are not exactly in terrible shape against any random 2 cards.

oh yea, there is one more option. its fold. however, its really not an option, as it would almost be as bad as miniraising.

so what consensus have i come to? i push. automatically. period. the end. the other options could be DECENT, however, pushing prevails once again!! holla

[Moonsugar]

It is not easy, that's why there is so much dissent.

What is interesting from these numbers though is it seems that calling is actually worst.

What this big long argument should show, yet again, is that even good players underestimate the importance of gaining chips and therefore sometimes placing higher to their profitability.

[Degen]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont see very many ways to play this hand. i push. period.

[/ QUOTE ]

[jgunnip]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, lets look at the other option. limping. here is what limping does for you. it gives you an option to get it in against the sb if he pushes AND the BB calls. THIS way, you only have to beat one of them to stay alive. this method is risky, but can gain u a lot of chips. i dont necessarily like it though, as i think straight up pushing is quite a bit better.

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't seem right and maybe you meant something else. But if SB pushes and BB goes AI and you call you have to beat SB to stay alive. Beating BB but losing to SB is no good (in a staying alive sense). It is also a possibilty, in the same situation, that BB wins the hand but SB beats you (for example if BB has TT, SB has 99, and you 88). Obviously this type of situation is very rare and probably why nobody has mentioned it thus far. But anyway, I guess I'm just trying to get clarification on what you meant.

peace

[bengele]

I did some calculations with your range using average chips instead of average EV because I think it is more accurate.

Average Chips
282
1864 (you) 26.93% by ICM
1910
5944

Over 3% difference from yours. Helpfully I did the math right.

[Moonsugar]

If you assume SB pushes with any 2 you will win 50% and have 34% equity. You will lose and SB will lose and you will be out 25% of the time but have gained 20% of the pool. You will lose and SB will not lose 25% of the time and have 0% equity.

Sum of the weighted averages of these is 22% equity. It is the worst strategy possible.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
This doesn't seem right and maybe you meant something else. But if SB pushes and BB goes AI and you call you have to beat SB to stay alive. Beating BB but losing to SB is no good (in a staying alive sense). It is also a possibilty, in the same situation, that BB wins the hand but SB beats you (for example if BB has TT, SB has 99, and you 88). Obviously this type of situation is very rare and probably why nobody has mentioned it thus far. But anyway, I guess I'm just trying to get clarification on what you meant.

[/ QUOTE ]

if i am small blind and utg limps, im pushing pretty much any 2 from the sb, to get the dead chips from utg in there. beating the sb and losing to the bb IS good for you, as you have around 3k chips, which really helps you. so i think you might be a bit off in what you are thinking, or i am, who knows. but again, i said i dont really like this method, so bleh to that. POOOOOOSH. holla

[adanthar]

Like I said in my original post, if you or some other guy I know is very good is the SB, I push for sure.

Anyway, if you're pushing 52, it's fine with me, because even ICM is going to say an 81% chance to double up is good here. 70-30 with dead money in the middle and the BB calling some chunk of the time is probably close to break even so fine, I'll take A4, too. If you have KQ or AT you're probably calling a push anyway so where's the difference?

Also, I don't know how much it matters, but I play AA-QQ this way, too.

Limping sucks because what's gonna happen is SB will complete something like top 90%, BB will quite properly check, the flop will come T74 or A72 or QJ3 and a decent SB will bet all of them. Congratulations; when the BB folds, you've wasted 300 chips and are about to play for third when he folds the next hand too, big stack raises any two and you eat that same 450. Maybe - I mean *maybe* - I'd limp some weirdo hand or aces if I thought SB would bite for sure, but not eights.

I don't mind pushing either. It's a tradeoff who the SB is.

[Nick M]

I am not sure if anyone sees this play or not. If you limp you give the SB a chance to call. If the BB goes all in, it is more than half so you can now re-raise all in and knock out the BB. It's tricky but It might be a nice move to consider if you are thinking about limping. It's like a back up plan. Not sure if anyone mentioned this play.

But ahhhhhhh I move in here hahahah every single time.

[HoldingFolding]

I presume BB folded and you went out in 4th?

[UMTerp]

I'm shocked at how clear-cut everyone seems to think this is...

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm shocked at how clear-cut everyone seems to think this is...

[/ QUOTE ]

well folding is wrong, and calling is wrong, what does that leave?

[UMTerp]

Nobody's proved calling is wrong. Everyone's just like "Push. duh." But then you look at the math, and calling's EV is higher.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm shocked at how clear-cut everyone seems to think this is...

[/ QUOTE ]

well folding is wrong, and calling is wrong, what does that leave?

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct play is to clearly raise all but 1 chip, hoping that if the SB calls and the BB folds...that the SB checks it down with you the rest of the way and then if you survive your blinds you are in good shape to money.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody's proved calling is wrong. Everyone's just like "Push. duh." But then you look at the math, and calling's EV is higher.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling is wrong because you give the BB a free look at the flop to double up.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Nobody's proved calling is wrong. Everyone's just like "Push. duh." But then you look at the math, and calling's EV is higher.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling is wrong because you give the BB a free look at the flop to double up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how this has anything to do with the problem?