200BB Stacks, Huge Draw

[solid]

Hero here is probably viewed as a tight player, but has recently won a few pots from Villian where he called PF raises with pocketpairs and hit sets.

Villian is a decent player who thinks he's better than he is and overplays overpair too much.

UTG is nothing special, but no real reads.

What's a good line to take on this flop?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+1 ($670.30)
MP1 ($588)
Hero ($1969.90)
CO (Villian) ($1177.75)
Button ($566.25)
SB ($1116)
BB ($255.10)
UTG ($568.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls $6, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $18</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO (Villian)/ raises to $48</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls $42, Hero calls $30.


Flop: ($153) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Villian bets $105</font>,

[Logik]

This preflop re-raise should scream KK or AA, he wouldn't take this line with any PP that would make a set with the board, nor would he do this with AKs (I hope not).

So let's assume that he has A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 45.4040 % [ 00.45 00.00 ] { AsAc }
Hand 2: 54.5960 % [ 00.54 00.00 ] { 9s8s }

I'd call here and try to make your hand. I would then proceed to check and allow him to overplay his overpair. Worst case scenarios is he has A /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gif (you're still a favorite with your pair, but your flush draw is no good), or a set of tens (then you're only a 2:1 dog, and you can still bust him out if you hit a spade or make your straight).

I think you're in a damn good position to take his stack here-- what hands have you seen him make preflop re-raises with? I would only expect that from AA or KK from a solid player, so it looks like a textbook overplayed overpair.

[creedofhubris]

Two options:

1) Reraise allin. He'll call in a heartbeat with a big pair, but that's OK: you're about a 60% favorite if he's got an overpair with no spade, 55% favorite if he's got a spade. Drawback: high variance.

2) Just call. 1/3 of the deck improves you. Pot turn and river if you improve. Consider betting moderately ($100) on blank turn to see if you can get a "cheap" river. Drawbacks: he may be able to get away from a high pair if you improve. Also, he may price you out on the turn.

Curious to see what others think. I would tend to reraise allin, it's good for table image.

[Logik]

[ QUOTE ]
Two options:

1) Reraise allin. He'll call in a heartbeat with a big pair, but that's OK: you're about a 60% favorite if he's got an overpair with no spade, 55% favorite if he's got a spade. Drawback: high variance.

2) Just call. 1/3 of the deck improves you. Pot turn and river if you improve. Consider betting moderately ($100) on blank turn to see if you can get a "cheap" river. Drawbacks: he may be able to get away from a high pair if you improve. Also, he may price you out on the turn.

Curious to see what others think. I would tend to reraise allin, it's good for table image.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think that any blocking bet would likely be re-raised by villian if he had overpair, as the OP said that villian tends to overplay this hand. I would call the flop, and check regardless of whether or not I made my hand-- the blocking bet will get re-raised, and quite likely any bet from a made hand (flush) might not get called, or at least not get raised. The weak check on the turn I think is a better line.

What hand do you put villian on with the re-raise preflop? Pot odds aren't great, but the implied odds are tremendous.

[creedofhubris]

Forgot to mention that if UTG sticks around in the hand you should just call rather than reraising IMO, take the tasty pot odds his presence will give you.

[solid]

Oh, my bad...UTG folded here. I should have included that in my original post.

Does anyone favor a lead in this situation (looking to get raised so you can push)?

[Logik]

No. There's no lead that could get raised that you could push without it being a gross overbet in this situation. Anything that would call would be exactly 50% to win (AxAs, KxKs, etc). I would enjoy making my hand before I did this-- a push would be an extremely high variance play. Are you adequately bankrolled to put all your chips for a ~1% advantage? I mean sure you have lots of folding equity and you can pick it up right now, but why?

I'd make my hand and allow villian to pay me off, or dump it on the turn if he priced you out that bad. Like I said, this call is purely in implied odds.

[emil3000]

You are wrong about the win%. Reraising all in is a good option against a villain that's not likely to give action when you hit your hand. In this case I agree that a call probably is best. In my opinion villain seems the type to put you on a lesser overpair when you call preflop and the flop. He can't get away from overpairs, so he doesn't think anyone else can either. I think you might even get a lot of action if the spade hits. An 8 or a nine would be better though, I think you might stack him with those cards.

A push isn't bad, but I like a call better.

[thabadguy]

I dont like the flop check, although people would disagree, I think a pot sized lead here would be much better. I like a lead, hope he raises and I push. I agree with cof that this is good for table image, a very good semibluff because, this could easily construed as a a set of 10's. If you lead and he calls, pot turn and river.
Another good line IMO would be to lead flop, call raise and push turn.

[fisherman112]

we seem to be ignoring that there's already 150 in the pot prior to villian's bet, so while the probable situation is a 55/45 race on the flop against AA or KK, you're getting a rather large overlay on a pot check raise here. It seems a little on the weak/tight side to be taking off a turn when 2/3 of the time the turn will be a blank and the pot and implied odds become a lot less compelling when villian bets pot again.

[IndianOcean]

You are 45% to make this hand. I believe this is a easy call because you have a huge implied odds.

Call..

[Bukem_]

Other way around.

[creedofhubris]

A pot check-raise on the flop is dangerous. If he just calls, you have an awkward situation on the turn if you miss.

As for leading the turn, the thing about raising is that opponents almost never raise enough. Even if he raises you, it is unlikely to be a pot-sized raise, and will be a min-raise enough times to make it a decent investment. At least, I have found this to be true of a number of opponents; the really aggressive ones will make you pay however. Might be read-specific.

[LuvDemNutz]

I like check raising all in.

Make Villain put $1K in the pot, when he's not sure if his overpair is good.

[howzit]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont like the flop check, although people would disagree, I think a pot sized lead here would be much better. I like a lead, hope he raises and I push.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you like to lead w/sets, this is a great line. I think this is my favorite line. But what's a bet size that would get raised by the majority of overpairs rather than getting called? 2/3 or pot-sized?


[ QUOTE ]
I agree with cof that this is good for table image, a very good semibluff because, this could easily construed as a a set of 10's.

[/ QUOTE ] i don't know if a set of tens would play it this strongly...well, I tend not to play top set this strong and my regular opponents know this. Especially if I think my opponent has an overpair.

[ QUOTE ]
If you lead and he calls, pot turn and river.

[/ QUOTE ] Ok, this is doable but this would scare the [censored] out of me. If the turn and river are both blanks, if he pays off the turn, he'll probably pay off the river.

I'd have to be pretty sure he's willing to laydown on the river of a big f'in pot if I fire a third barrel.



[ QUOTE ]
Another good line IMO would be to lead flop, call raise and push turn.

[/ QUOTE ] Instead of calling a flop raise, why not push the turn if he calls behind on the flop?

[tpir90036]

I like leading out for $120. Hopefully he raises the flop and then you can re-raise all-in. I like using this line with big draws because it is the same line I use with sets OOP as well.

Check-raising all-in is a huge overbet and I would rather let him put in some more money on the flop in case he decides to fold after the push.

If he just calls you can reevaluate depending on whether you hit or not. Plus, there are a lot of scary cards that you could pot the turn on even if you don't hit.

[Yeti]

[ QUOTE ]
Another good line IMO would be to lead flop, call raise and push turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be pretty bad.

As OP played it, CR'ing allin seems fine. Maybe just call if you think he'll pay you off anyway if you hit, and you want to minimise your variance.

I prefer 3-betting the flop allin by far, though.

[chuddo]

i am an advocate of the bet-3bet push in this spot as well. particularly as another poster stated because i play sets out of position against a probably overpair the same way.

160 in the pot. i bet 125. villian can then make it 300 straight putting the pot around 585, and you can then set him in for his remaining 700+.

if he folds to your push with an overpair thinking you hit a set, then you take down a nice pot without showdown.and if he calls then i like the gamboool, because the numbers are on your side.

plus as someone mentioned this is nice for table image, and will allow you to get paid off when blowing the pot up with sets to overpairs drawing to two outs.

and last and probably most importantly....cracking aces with 89s for someones entire huge stack is fun.

[solid]

[ QUOTE ]

I prefer 3-betting the flop allin by far, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like the best line in this spot, getting the most money in before pushing and still mantaining fold equity.

Anyone else?

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]

I prefer 3-betting the flop allin by far, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I couldnt agree more with this.

villian has 1k left with 150 in the pot. pot it, if he just calls thats not bad, and if he raises, laugh manically and dump the rest in. if he raises to 350-400, he may even fold if you push, given that you shown him some sets recently.

[Big_Jim]

Decision is not call or fold, it's call or raise. Certainly we're putting more money in the pot.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
Two options:

1) Reraise allin. He'll call in a heartbeat with a big pair, but that's OK:

[/ QUOTE ]WTF??? almost never getting called by AA/KK... and sure as hell not in a heartbeat. betting is easily the best play... after you check i think you should raise to $275... if called, move in on any turn.

[Rotating Rabbit]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Another good line IMO would be to lead flop, call raise and push turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be pretty bad.

As OP played it, CR'ing allin seems fine. Maybe just call if you think he'll pay you off anyway if you hit, and you want to minimise your variance.

I prefer 3-betting the flop allin by far, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm in the 3-bet club too.

And from here it looks like a call is best. The 5 outs to 2pair are totally disguised, and the 4 gutshot outs will probably get his stack too. The spades should get at least 250. Thats plenty.

Great thread.

[emil3000]

I like a check call better than a checkraise/push turn. A flop bet is better, I agree with this.

On the turn if he doesn't hit, he's not getting his money in good, right?

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I prefer 3-betting the flop allin by far, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like the best line in this spot, getting the most money in before pushing and still mantaining fold equity.

Anyone else?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, it's a good plan. Wasn't presented as an option in original post.