Flush draw/TP tune-up

[Redd]

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero...

Villain is 21/13/5 over 40 hands. Based on my observations, he didn't get out of line with nothing, but when he hit a weak hand he'd push it too hard.

I'm guessing he's made a weak king from the BB here, and therein lies my quandry: If I like my king, raising will shut out most of the field behind me and get me a couple of bets from Villain. If I like my 2nd-nut draw, calling will get a boatload of people in giving me a strong draw but a vulnerable top pair. Which would you do?

[parappa]

I like raising here, figuring that I'll get callers to build the pot for my draw anyway. If I raise, I'm happy whether they call or fold.

[NickRegino]

Raise it up as a semi bluff for portecting your hand. Although if you check out on the turn, it gives your hand away, so be wise about it. If you want more money in the pot though I would just suggest calling to entice other to be in the pot with you.

[Shillx]

I would call since the pot is small, your hand might not be good and there really aren't that many hands that you would want to fold in this spot. If your hand is good, the only hands that are any kind of a threat are the nut flush draw and a hand like like A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif that has six outs. It is doubtful that anyone has a pair of fives or twos in this spot, but even if they did, they have four or five outs. Anyone with a worse king has two or three outs in this spot.

Another thing to consider is that you might not even have the best hand here. The BB might have something like K2 or KJ or a set and if that is the case, you do even better for yourself by just calling.

Brad

[Redd]

As always, Shillx's read was bang on - although I was fairly certain I was ahead, villain had 22. I decided to raise to push my equity edge, and folded out most of the field; in retrospect, I considered that calling was likely better (which is why I posted the hand).

Fortunately, villain capped his set against the J/images/graemlins/heart.gif on the non-paired riv. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Interestingly enough, this is now my second-most profitable hand over the past couple thousand due to this one play. My most profitable is 72o (right before my downsing I hit quad 7s out of the BB) and my least profitable is AA (having been cracked two more times since my little trifecta (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Board=micro&amp;Number=2391835&amp;Forum =f21&amp;Words=&amp;Searchpage=0&amp;Limit=25&amp;Main=2391835&amp;Sea rch=true&amp;where=bodysub&amp;Name=17905&amp;daterange=1&amp;newe rval=1&amp;newertype=w&amp;olderval=&amp;oldertype=&amp;bodyprev=# Post2391835) a few days ago).