AQs hand - go with my read?

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Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

No reads, I'm afraid, new table.

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.16 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>...

I felt pretty strongly this guy had a set after that call/threebet. But he could also have a draw or a smaller two pair, and I don't want to give a free card. So what's my plan here?

BTW should I three-bet this pre-flop against an unkown EP raise? Cap the flop? I'm thinking yes to both.

NT

[JoshuaD]

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I felt pretty strongly this guy had a set after that call/threebet. But he could also have a draw or a smaller two pair, and I don't want to give a free card. So what's my plan here?


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You're seeing monsters, IMO. AA and TT are the only likely sets, and neither happens very often.

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BTW should I three-bet this pre-flop against an unkown EP raise? Cap the flop? I'm thinking yes to both.

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I don't know what to think of a preflop 3-bet. I kinda like it to define MP1's hand, but I don't wanna take control of the pot. I could do either.

I don't cap the flop, You're probably beat at this point, if not you want to keep AJ betting at you.

I check-raise the turn, call a 3-bet.

[nothumb]

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You're seeing monsters, IMO. AA and TT are the only likely sets, and neither happens very often.

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Fair enough, from a Bayesian standpoint and otherwise. If I check-raise the turn and get three-bet, what do I do on the river unimproved?

I am definitely not quite as used to the aggression at 3/6, having recently moved up, although this was a fairly passive table.

NT

[JoshuaD]

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You're seeing monsters, IMO. AA and TT are the only likely sets, and neither happens very often.

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Fair enough, from a Bayesian standpoint and otherwise. If I check-raise the turn and get three-bet, what do I do on the river unimproved?

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Definitely call down, especially without a read. I don't like to make these folds at all, the pot is big and you've got some really legitimate winning chances. Too many people donk around with AK or AT on that turn.

[nothumb]

I agree. However that's only hypothetical. The real action went...

Hero bets the turn, Villain calls.

River: 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Hero bets. Villain thinks for a minute and raises.

NT

[JoshuaD]

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I agree. However that's only hypothetical. The real action went...

Hero bets the turn, Villain calls.

River: 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Hero bets. Villain thinks for a minute and raises.

NT

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Easy easy call.

[nothumb]

Yeah, no worries, I called. And got shown TT, as expected.

NT

[KDawgCometh]

I think that I'm capping that flop most often there. YOu have TP2K w/nut flush draw and a backdoor straight draw. As far as PF, I don't like threebetting OOP. DO you plan on threebetting this turn if you get raised. YOu have a mulititude of outs as you now beat AK(which the PFR could very well have), and you have plenty of redraw outs against a made gutshot. YOu now have four boat outs and nine spades. Pretty sweet going into the river IF you are now behind.

[nothumb]

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I think that I'm capping that flop most often there.

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With another player on for the ride I agree. But heads-up I'm not sure it's worth it.

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As far as PF, I don't like threebetting OOP.

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With so many callers, great way to build a big pot with a good multiway hand. Not likely that I'll shut anyone out and I'll probably only get capped by a hand that is creaming me, which would be nice to know.

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DO you plan on threebetting this turn if you get raised.

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No.

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YOu have a mulititude of outs as you now beat AK(which the PFR could very well have),

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PFR folded to my c/r on the flop, but I see your point.

I think a c/r is okay on the turn except that if he doesn't have a set, he's probably got a draw and he can take a free card. I think draw or a set are the most likely hands here, with lower two pair second.

NT

[KDawgCometh]

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As far as PF, I don't like threebetting OOP.

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With so many callers, great way to build a big pot with a good multiway hand. Not likely that I'll shut anyone out and I'll probably only get capped by a hand that is creaming me, which would be nice to know.



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this is true. I'm always 50/50 on raising PF from teh blinds in a raised pot already, there are definate arguments for it and defineate arguments against it. For me, its just what kind of mood that I'm in at that moment

[JoshuaD]

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As far as PF, I don't like threebetting OOP.

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With so many callers, great way to build a big pot with a good multiway hand. Not likely that I'll shut anyone out and I'll probably only get capped by a hand that is creaming me, which would be nice to know.



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this is true. I'm always 50/50 on raising PF from teh blinds in a raised pot already, there are definate arguments for it and defineate arguments against it. For me, its just what kind of mood that I'm in at that moment

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I'm the same way. I could go either way on a preflop raise here. Just don't fold. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[KDawgCometh]

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As far as PF, I don't like threebetting OOP.

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With so many callers, great way to build a big pot with a good multiway hand. Not likely that I'll shut anyone out and I'll probably only get capped by a hand that is creaming me, which would be nice to know.



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this is true. I'm always 50/50 on raising PF from teh blinds in a raised pot already, there are definate arguments for it and defineate arguments against it. For me, its just what kind of mood that I'm in at that moment

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I'm the same way. I could go either way on a preflop raise here. just don't fold /images/graemlins/grin.gif

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that kind of nittiness is solely reserved for JasonT /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[oreogod]

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Yeah, no worries, I called. And got shown TT, as expected.

NT

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I f*ing knew it. Unlikely for sure but it does happen...I was going to post blind but a threads a thread and I should read it to maybe, i dunno, post something insightful...but Ive seen this exact play the last few days being up against sets when I have two pair.

I play the flop the same, preflop sometimes I three bet this, depending....the turn I probably check-raise, call the three bet, call the river bet.

[oreogod]

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As far as PF, I don't like threebetting OOP.

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With so many callers, great way to build a big pot with a good multiway hand. Not likely that I'll shut anyone out and I'll probably only get capped by a hand that is creaming me, which would be nice to know.



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this is true. I'm always 50/50 on raising PF from teh blinds in a raised pot already, there are definate arguments for it and defineate arguments against it. For me, its just what kind of mood that I'm in at that moment

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Most of the time if Im on the button Im 3 betting this, this is of course depending on what type of player the raiser is.

The blinds its 50/50.

[nothumb]

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but Ive seen this exact play the last few days being up against sets when I have two pair.


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Yeah, but you've also seen it with a flush draw, or even a worse two pair, right? I sure have. If people only did this with bottom set, it would make life way too simple.

NT

[JoshuaD]

... and probably less profitable.

[oreogod]

True, but seriously, that was my first thought, hence the F*ing knew it comment.

Of course after that thought, does come all the other types of hands that this play has been made with.

Still at first glimpse of the hand thats what i thought and the idea that I carried with me as I read your results. Sometimes u just have a feeling when u go over something and even though there is a chance that it could be something else, u assign a larger percentage of possibility to your first intuition...other times your first intuition is wrong and u feel unsure about it.

Just a thought, not a dance up and down with glee moment...still NH.

[BoxLiquid]

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Hero bets the turn, Villain calls.

River: 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Hero bets. Villain thinks for a minute and raises.

NT

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Ok, I'm wondering why not check then call here if you feel like you're beat? Wasn't the bet on the river negative EV? Response appreciated /images/graemlins/club.gif

[brettbrettr]

I'd probably cap the flop. You have big redraw here.