call or fold?

[fsuplayer]

crappy MP opens to 25, sb (42/19 ) calls from the sb.

i call 15 more from the bb with Qc10s.

flop: Jc9c4d

chk, i chk, MP bets 45, sb calls, i call.

turn: Jh

chk, i bet 170, fold, sb raises to 350.

sb has 550 left after his raise, i have him covered.

what is your play here?

[creedofhubris]

You forgot "fold preflop".

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
You forgot "fold preflop".

[/ QUOTE ]

not against these guys for 1.5BB'S more.

[fsuplayer]

i am trying to improve the math aspect of my game, so if anyone uses anything more than basic math, please post if for me.

thanks

[freemoney]

well you have to first assume how live you are drawing right?

[-Skeme-]

I'd say KJo is a reasonable hand Villain could have. Maybe even JT. I fold this.

[okayplayer]

Okay, first instinct was to fold, and then i did some quick thinking and approximated ~ 5.5 outs, and figured that a call is slightly +EV, but then I thought some more and did some quick math in my head (double check it), and I believe a fold is correct.

Villain hand ranges: AJ, KJ, QJ, JJ, J9, 99, 44, JT. With AJ all of your outs are live, with KJ you have 4 live outs, QJ you have 8 live outs, JT you have 8 live outs, and J9, 99, and 44 you are dead to. There are 43 combos, resulting with avg. outs = ~5.2. The (implied) pot is $1460 and you have to call $180. With 5.2 outs out of 44 cards (~1:8.5) you need ~$1523 in implied pot odds. Thus making a call incorrect here.

This is a pretty close decision, though. I guess first instinct is right /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Rotating Rabbit]

Raise is out of the question - the flop action destroyed your fold equity. It looks to villian that you have a weak J or a 8+out draw, so he is expecting a call on his pathetic raise. [Note that while _he_ can flat call the flop with 2pair+, because he's trying to suck the idiot in, you shouldnt after his call- and he knows this]. Thus he has a made hand, and thinks its stronger than you. He's playing to get you all in on the river by pot odds. So I think there's a big chance you're dead, fold.