Pro Football Prospectus

[The Armchair]

Can it be as good as Baseball Prospectus? I'm waiting with baited breath. If we can "Moneyball" the NFL, that'd be effin' incredible.

[DougOzzzz]

Baseball Prospectus is affiliated with Football Outsiders (http://www.footballoutsiders.com) . As far as statistical analysis though, football is light years behind baseball, and always will be.

[Jack of Arcades]

We're working on it. The key to it is study everything as one unit, a team, and look at it like that.

Football Outsiders (http://footballoutsiders.com)

[The Armchair]

Outsiders does (do?) good work. PFP'05 should be good stuff then.

I hope they have helpful fantasy stuff, though. Projections are one thing but fantasy football strat has pretty much run its course.

[The Armchair]

[ QUOTE ]
We're working on it. The key to it is study everything as one unit, a team, and look at it like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

You write for them?

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
Baseball Prospectus is affiliated with Football Outsiders (http://www.footballoutsiders.com) . As far as statistical analysis though, football is light years behind baseball, and always will be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, simply because of the team-aspect of the sport and the smallish sample size for everybody that isn't a QB.

[Jack of Arcades]

Nah, I just meant a "we" like, we as in the saber(safer?)metric community.

[The Armchair]

I think the biggest part is isolating non-RB skill players. RBs you can somewhat isolate from the offensive line because of how often backups and the like get carries (for example, Washington was idiotic to trade Bailey and a high pick for Portis, given that the DEN offensive line is clearly superb). But measuring how Culpepper will do without Moss is tough.

[B Dids]

Armchair- don't you like, write for Football Prospectus?

[tbach24]

Could the NFL really be measured like baseball? I don't think so and I don't think the NBA could be either. Lots of things go into it that can't really be measured like leadership and intelligence.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
Could the NFL really be measured like baseball? I don't think so and I don't think the NBA could be either. Lots of things go into it that can't really be measured like leadership and intelligence.

[/ QUOTE ]

The biggest thing is the fact that football is really a lot more of a team sport. We've more or less "solved" baseball offense since it's a one-on-one thing for the most part. Even defense is almost singular.

In baseball, as Armchair mentions, it's hard to seperate how much of Randy is Daunte and how much of Daunte is Randy.

[The Armchair]

No, I freelance, and have never had an article in a PF Prospectus to date.

[B Dids]

Ahh... gotcha. My apologies for any implied accusations.

[morello]

[ QUOTE ]
In baseball, as Armchair mentions, it's hard to seperate how much of Randy is Daunte and how much of Daunte is Randy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Should be pretty obvious that Randy makes Daunte look better. I mean, his career numbers thus far are on par with Rice's numbers and he's played with Brad Johnson, Randall, etc. Randy is definitely the driving force.

[The Armchair]

I project Culpepper will fall to the McNabb tier -- slightly ahead of the rest of the non-Manning QBs, but not really distinguishable like he was last year. That honestly surprised me, as I figured he would fall to the Brady-Bulger range if not worse.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In baseball, as Armchair mentions, it's hard to seperate how much of Randy is Daunte and how much of Daunte is Randy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Should be pretty obvious that Randy makes Daunte look better. I mean, his career numbers thus far are on par with Rice's numbers and he's played with Brad Johnson, Randall, etc. Randy is definitely the driving force.

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't change the fact that we can't fully quantify it like we can in baseball. We can reasonably say Albert Pujols contributed x runs of offense last year. We can't say with as much confidence how many points Randy contributed, etc.

[IggyWH]

[ QUOTE ]
it's hard to seperate how much of Randy is Daunte and how much of Daunte is Randy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? You don't have the face-to-face stats like you do in baseball, but you still have history to look at. Just last year I think Moss missed 4 complete games and 1 where he played but didn't do anything.

That alone should give you a great idea how Culpepper will do next year without Moss. Sure it's not years of data like MLB is but it should be enough to be useful.

[Jack of Arcades]

It's an idea, yes. But there are other factors, such as the opposing team, etc. And while it gives us an idea of what Daunte is like sans-Randy, it still doesn't tell us his true talent level. We can't quantify almost perfectly what Daunte is worth like we can what Albert is worth. Y'see?

[The Armchair]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it's hard to seperate how much of Randy is Daunte and how much of Daunte is Randy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? You don't have the face-to-face stats like you do in baseball, but you still have history to look at. Just last year I think Moss missed 4 complete games and 1 where he played but didn't do anything.

That alone should give you a great idea how Culpepper will do next year without Moss. Sure it's not years of data like MLB is but it should be enough to be useful.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I based my projections on. The problem is that it is not even a season's worth of data, and the amount of error you get is statistically enormous.

[IggyWH]

[ QUOTE ]
It's an idea, yes. But there are other factors, such as the opposing team, etc. And while it gives us an idea of what Daunte is like sans-Randy, it still doesn't tell us his true talent level. We can't quantify almost perfectly what Daunte is worth like we can what Albert is worth. Y'see?

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh I see, if you're comparing Pujols worth to Donte's worth. Obviously baseball is going to kick footballs ass in that.

Your statement said it's hard though and that's why I said "Why?". Football will never be as clear-cut as baseball... but there's no need for that comparision because they are completely different.

When you figure out the value of Culpepper, you're using those same factors to evaluate the value of everyone in football. Therefore, it's not really all that hard... just keep the sports seperated and don't try comparing one to the other.