can't decide if this is an obvious call or an obvious fold

[jfletcher]

Final table of a 2-table SNG 10+1, top 4 paid. I am the big stack, and have been stealing a lot of blinds lately.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (5 handed) converter

Hero (t10975)
SB (t2530)
BB (t905)
UTG (t2204)
MP (t3386)

MP is pretty loose and aggressive. SB is nothing out of the ordinary.

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif .
1 fold, MP calls t300, Hero raises to t1200, SB reraises all-in to t2530, 1 fold, MP reraises all-in to t3386, Hero ????

If my math is right, I needed to call 1886 for a pot of 6816, which is about 3.5 to 1, right? If I call and win, I'll have 16591 chips with only 3 players left. If I call and lose, I could be down to 7889 and I would have lost the lead. If I fold, I still have a sizeable lead with 9775 chips and most likely one of the players gone to put us all in the money.

I did a test on poker stove and this is what I came up with.

For SB, who was getting shortstacked and probably tired of my bullying, I put him on any PP, any AXs and AXo down to A6. Also KQs and KQo.

For MP, considering the limp reraise all-in against another all-in, I figured he had to have AA-JJ, AKs or AKo.

The equity results...
Me 26.7 pct.
SB 23.6 pct.
MP 49.5 pct.

That looks to me like I was a 3-1 dog, so does that mean calling is correct when the pot giving 3.5 to 1? Or is it better in this case just to sit back and let the other two duke it out.

Also, maybe someone who understand ICM better can give me an analysis from that perspective. There were 20K chips in play. $80 for 1st, $60 for 2nd, $40 for 3rd, $20 for 4th.

Interested to hear your opinions on this (especially Gigabet's).

[Freudian]

Fold. If you are lucky 2-3 overcards may hurt you, if you are unlucky one of them has an overpair.

[curtains]

I would call. Maybe it's very slightly -ev chipwise but I'd call anyway, because if you get lucky you basically clinch first place.

[curtains]

by the way, do not make raises like 1200 if you plan to fold to these reraises. You don't want to put yourself in a situation where it's this close to you between calling and folding. Just move allin, or raise some completely pot committing amount here. OR if you can raise an amount where you will have a clear conscience folding, then do that. Unfortunately that's not really possible here.

[Newt_Buggs]

definitly raise more pf and completely pot commit yourself. In this situation I think I would fold though. I don't know what the payouts are on this tournament, but I wouldn't be surprised if calling is + chip EV but not +$EV

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
definitly raise more pf and completely pot commit yourself. In this situation I think I would fold though. I don't know what the payouts are on this tournament, but I wouldn't be surprised if calling is + chip EV but not +$EV

[/ QUOTE ]

If calling here is +chip EV it's almost surely +$EV.

[jfletcher]

I actually thought 1200 was a pretty good amount. It was 4X the BB, so it had a chance to take the pot down right there, but it still left me with a good sized stack if I had to fold.

[curtains]

but the point is that it makes it a very very close decision between calling and folding. I don't like to make a raise here that makes it such a close decision after I'm reraised. I like it to be easy, meaning I can fold with no regrets or I simply have to call. It's nearly impossible to make a raise where you would have no regrets folding to a reraise in this scenario however.

[jfletcher]

anyone else want to take a stab at this?

[shejk]

Call. And I think you should put MP on a broader range besides.

[jfletcher]

[ QUOTE ]
Call. And I think you should put MP on a broader range besides.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you think that a limp-reraise is usually a sign of a pretty strong hand? And in this case he has no chance to take it down without showing his cards because of the all-in, so I think that makes it likely to be even stronger.

[jfletcher]

OK, here's what happened. I thought for a few seconds and folded. I decided that I wanted to take the sure thing. Folding maintained my lead and guaranteed that one player was going to be out, or almost out, which would put me in the money for sure.

The thing that troubled me most about it the hand is I was thinking my fold was a little tight, and that I should taken the opportunity, even as a significant underdog to basically lock up the tourney in one hand. If I would have won, I'd have 80 percent of the chips with just three players left.

One of my problems, I think, is when I get to be a big stack, I get very protective of my chips. Sure, I'll try to steal blinds, but I generally avoid serious all-in confrontations cuz I don't want to blow a huge pile of chips at once. I'm thinking maybe I should take advantage of my stack more often and gamble on the chance of going from big stack to MONSTER stack.

I still think you can make a good argument for calling or folding, and would still like to hear some other opinions.

Anyway, after I folded MP showed AA and SB showed Q5s (obviously he was sick of my bullying). Of course a 7 came on the flop and I would have won.

Now, here's my next question. Should MP, with pocket rockets, have just called the SB's all-in to entice me to also call? I certainly would have called then, because my odds would have been even better. (Of course, then he really would have been in trouble when my 7 flopped, but that's not the point.) Does AA mind having two callers? Or do you really just want it heads up?

[Simplistic]

depending on stack sizes i might just call to entice a call from a big stack. in the case that AA has Q5 covered by abit, i'll usually just call here. it DOES scream monster when you flat call the all-in though, the push looks like an isolate raise with a weaker hand. player specific really.

[adanthar]

If MP hadn't limped before, I limp behind him PF and flop a set.

After he limp-3 bets, I turbofold.

[uphigh_downlow]

It seems like a fold.

Whats significant, here from other cases, is the limited number of hands MP would do this with.

In addition I dont think that 1200 was a bad raise. It was a good raise, which has helped you narrow the possible holdings of your oponents.

A 900 might not have been good enough to tell you much.

What is most important is precision.

Easier decisions dont come from easy folds, because someone raised and you assign them a general range and decided it was -EV. They come from precise reads about the variables that are involved in computing odds.

[Moonsugar]

[ QUOTE ]
I actually thought 1200 was a pretty good amount. It was 4X the BB, so it had a chance to take the pot down right there, but it still left me with a good sized stack if I had to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I bet 1200 (which I think is the correct amount) there is not anyone with a stack large enough to make me fold in this situation. If I get reraised by the next largest stack I am still getting 2:1 so I am calling with 77.

I like your analysis of the situation and the range you put both guys on (SB may be even wider), I think it is an 'obvious' call. Both opponents have to be extremely tight to fold getting 3.5:1 with 77 (or some wierd tourney situationwhere your stack is much smaller and they have even stacks and are both all in etc.)

[chuddo]

as nice as it would have been to lock up the tourney here by spiking the two-outer, i agree this is an autofold.

one big reason is simply because you still have a commanding chip lead and can exert pressure on every other stack that is worried about moving up a spot or two.

call this and lose, as you are certainly behind here, and you no longer have this edge.

[RobGW]

You've been stealing a lot. The blinds are high compared to the others stacks. Why would MP limp in if he is aggressive? This alone would have sent warning bells off.