Almost FT, A7o

[PrayingMantis]

$33 rebuy, 11 players left on 2 tables, 9 get to final table. All get $365. 9th is $517. 1st wins $8.5K, 2nd is $5.5K, 3rd is $3.5K etc.

You are pretty low with 115K, but there are 1 shorter stack at your table (around 80K) and 2 more pretty much like yours. At the other table situation is similar.

Blinds are 12K/6K, ante 600, 5 players at the table.

Folded to SB, big stack w/400K, very aggressive and strong player. He immidiately pushes. You have A7o. How fast do you call/fold?

[augie00]

Man, it is close. You are not likely to be dominating him (he more often than not will have two live cards). You are probably winning, but it is a big gamble for a pot that isn't THAT big.

[tiger7210]

I think this call solely depends on villain and how aggressive he has been in stealing blinds and how tight you have been playing.

I have made this call with K high and folded hands as good as A7. I believe this is a strictly a feel play based on your read of villain.

[Jason Strasser]

I think I find a fold here pretty fast.

While its likely you are ahead, you arent going to be very far ahead very often. Plus stacks like to play tight on the bubble so I'd much prefer to steal the blinds with any 2 crap cards then to call this bet.

-Jason

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I find a fold here pretty fast.

While its likely you are ahead, you arent going to be very far ahead very often. Plus stacks like to play tight on the bubble so I'd much prefer to steal the blinds with any 2 crap cards then to call this bet.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah what he said

[PrayingMantis]

Well for me it looked like a rather easy call, and I called pretty fast actually. Maybe it's because I've been playing with the guy for some time. I put him on a very wide range of hands, against which A7o is a clear favorite. Not by much, maybe, but enough for it to be worth around 20K at least. As I'm not really trying to survive this FT "bubble", but simply to accumulate chips, this looked like a good enough spot, definitely not worse than any other option around. I'm not more than ~10xBB, so it's not like there are many posssibilies here.

Honestly I'm a bit surprised to see some of you think it is so close or a fold. Maybe against some players it's a good fold. In this spot I really couldn't think that folding A7o is right. I'm still ready to be convinced, though.

He showed QTo (very good hand actually, considering the range I put him on), and didn't improve. I doubled up and had a nice stack to go on.

[Jason Strasser]

If he shows you KQ do you call?

-Jason

[augie00]

[ QUOTE ]
If he shows you KQ do you call?

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

I do.

[MLG]

I'm deffinitely not here with these stack sizes. chip ev does not equal cash ev here, not even close.

[JaBlue]

muck. You're probably a slight favorite over his hand range i.e. 55-60% but that's not enough for me right now

[PrayingMantis]

I'm putting ~100K to win ~120K. this is 1.2:1 on my money. I'm 1.4:1 fav against KQ here (I'm actually in a worse situation against QT). This means it is about +28K in EV.

MLG says that CEV is not close to $EV here, and this is pretty much true (I wouldn't say "not even close", but there's a difference for sure). However, considering the short stack sizes, and the fact the the big jumps in prize money are still pretty far ahead at the final table, I think that giving up on such clear +CEV spot is a long term losing play.

To MLG: the fact that CEV is not equal to $EV does not mean that taking this one is -$EV, and what's more, it does not mean that this spot isn't actually better in terms of $EV than some future marginal situations, i.e, aggressive moves with garbage against other short stacks, which might of course be +$EV, but not necessarily higher than this call here, and not necessarily with much smaller risk.

[MLG]

Yeah, my stance might have been a little too strong, this is not an obvious decision one way or the other. You are also right that later stealing chances are not necessarily higher EV (although I think they probably are). This is pretty much all a feel thing, because I can't really quantify how much edge its right to give up here (and im not sure anybody ever really has). My feeling is that with the other shortstacks around you are costing yourself money by taking a pretty small edge when they will probaby be busting soon. Its interesting discussion. It would be nice if there was a definite answer but I'm not sure there is.

[adanthar]

Coming from an SNG background, this is a very obvious fold, largely because of the increase in prize equity you get by default once 2-3 other people bust out.

edit: I swear I didn't read MLG's post before typing this, heh.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Coming from an SNG background, this is a very obvious fold, largely because of the increase in prize equity you get by default once 2-3 other people bust out.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I'm actually coming from what you'd call a SNG background as well (as you probably know), and I don't see how the increase in prize money that comes when *2* more people bust (~+$150), has a great implication on the $EV of taking this spot. It's not like someone is about to bust next hand and the FT bubble will burst.

Again, I'm rather surprised to see another "very obvious fold". If that's an "obvious fold", then calling with, say, A9-AT, should be "close", which is completely ridiculous.

[adanthar]

I think they are close. If you run an ICM (I haven't but I've done them on similar hands before) I think you wind up needing a 60 something winning percentage to call.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
I think they are close. If you run an ICM (I haven't but I've done them on similar hands before) I think you wind up needing a 60 something winning percentage to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously, if you think that calling with AT-A9 on the BB with these stacks against a push by a very aggressive big stack on SB is "close", you are playing a losing MTT game. And I don't mean to sound offensive or anything.

[adanthar]

I don't want to offend either, but when Strassa, MLG, bugstud and I all agree this is a fold, it's a fold.

A9o would probably be a marginal call if you put him on a random hand. Probably.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't want to offend either, but when Strassa, MLG, bugstud and I all agree this is a fold, it's a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on, this is not an argumet. Are we discussing MTT strategy or come here to say "he said so, it must be true"??

But if you insist, MLG has already stated above, as a reply to a previous post of mine here: "this is not an obvious decision one way or the other." Strassa didn't come back to this thread until now (knowing Strassa, I'm not sure he won't be convinced this is a call after all, but I'll let him speak for himself), and Bugstud only said "what he said" after Strassa. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I really think that you (as others here) tend to be somewhat weak tight when it comes to calling, specifically all-in. I can understand it, but sometimes you should really re-evaluate IMO.

I was ready to be conviced that this is maybe a fold, but as this thread developes, I find calling more and more correct, and I don't see any strong enough argument in favour of folding this clear and significant (IMO) +EV spot.

[adanthar]

First off, it's not like this is a weird flop that there's three ways to play or anything. This is a question with a clear answer; there's definitely only one correct choice to make and generally, when the instincts of someone like MLG say that is a fold, it's a fold.

Having said that, the way you'd do the math is to run an ICM calc the same way that I eyeballed/someone did on strassa's AQ SB post a few days ago. That hand turned out to turn on whether AQ was an under 60% favorite. In this hand, you have a smaller stack, but the payouts are steeper (because you haven't hit 9 yet) and there are more people, so I'm making an educated guess that you need around the same 60%, give or take 2-3%, to call. A7o is not there; A9o might be if he's pushing any two, etc.

Give us the exact payouts, number of entries and starting chips, or run the ICM yourself. It'll almost certainly say 'fold'.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
when the instincts of someone like MLG say that is a fold, it's a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on, I really don't get it. Please read the more recent post of MLG in this thread, in which he says it is not clear and basically a feel thing. If you keep insisting that if MLG says something then that's the definite answer, you better read what he says more carefully. And even MLG can change his mind, believe it or not! But this is really getting ridiculous.

About the ICM - you'll need exact stacks of players in the other table too, which I don't have, but I can evaluate from memory if that's so important. Anyway, I repeat what I said: thinking that calling w/ AT-A9 here is "close" is being in a losing state of mind. Quite frankly, if ICM will "tell" you otherwise [edit: I mean - will tell you it's close/fold], it is not a very useful tool to say the least.

[MLG]

I'm glad adanthar has such faith in my instincts, but they can be wrong sometimes. I still think its a fold (although I'm always calling with A10, and maybe 90% with A9), but I can't give you calcs to back it up. It seems with so many people with similar or smaller stacks the times you bust here cost you a lot more than with other stack distributions.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems with so many people with similar or smaller stacks the times you bust here cost you a lot more than with other stack distributions.

[/ QUOTE ]

As mentioned in the original post, I am pretty low, 2nd lowest at the table and maybe 2nd or 3rd lowest overall.

One more very important factor, that you could conclude from the description of the situation in the OP, if you read it carefully, is that it is relatively difficult to steal. That's because a very aggressive big stack is acting *in front* of you, i.e, it won't usually get folded to you in LP/SB. This significally reduces the potential of future aggression, and increases the relative equity of calling here.

[MLG]

stealing is only gonna be tough until the FT, 2 people away. Also the aggro big stack increases your chances of doubling with a more decent hand like 77 or something if you pick it up on in the next round or 2. I certainly don't think you're in an easy spot. Playing short but not shortest stacks are really really hard close to and at the FT.

[adanthar]

The ICM is definitely flawed. It often says to fold when you should push, but not in this kind of context. Right here, when you have no FE and are up against a hand at least *slightly* better than two cards (he's still probably folding 32o, etc.), you're around a 55% favorite, give or take a couple. That's an edge very close to all of the ones you easily throw away on the bubble of an SNG.

Furthermore, everybody else, both at your table and at the final table, are aware of the payout structure and almost always play too tight. Even the shortest stacks will be able to steal, as long as the other guy's stack takes a big hit if he loses the hand; resteals when you sense weakness are huge, too (I will often push with something like a QT or a 97s the minute the big stack minraises instead of pushes). If anything, rather than being weak/tight, most people here underestimate how much patience and selective aggression work for you at an FT.

For the record, of the last six FT's I've made, I've got 3 1'sts, 2 2'nds, and a 3'rd. Some of that is running hot, but just passing on spots like these (and then pushing that same A7 to a minraise) is enough to move up to a much bigger payout.

[PrayingMantis]

You make good points, but most of them are not really relevant to the discussed situation, IMO. For instance, the fact that people are aware of the paying structure can mean many things. By itself it doesn't say anything. Some peope play too tight, some play too loose, some wait for others to bust, some take marginal +EV spots too often. Any decision should be made according to the specific conditions.

[ QUOTE ]
Even the shortest stacks will be able to steal, as long as the other guy's stack takes a big hit if he loses the hand;

[/ QUOTE ]

That's generally true of course, but when a very aggressive big stack acting in front of you, as I already mentioned above, your stealing potential in this particular situation is diminished by a lot.

[ QUOTE ]
resteals when you sense weakness are huge, too

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the information, but I'm the last player who needs to learn when to resteal.

[ QUOTE ]
(I will often push with something like a QT or a 97s the minute the big stack minraises instead of pushes).

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, again, this is not very relevant. I mentioned big stack is a strong player. He is not miniraising you here.

[ QUOTE ]
If anything, rather than being weak/tight, most people here underestimate how much patience and selective aggression work for you at an FT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the advice. I don't know what does this have to do with anything, since again, I'm the last one who you should teach what is patience and selective aggressiveness.

In any case, claiming that calling with AT-A9 in the spot we discuss is "close", like you did earlier, is *extremely* weak-tight, period. Regardless of any theoretical talk about patience as a virtue. Over-patience = losing money in MTTs.

[ QUOTE ]
For the record, of the last six FT's I've made, I've got 3 1'sts, 2 2'nds, and a 3'rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I ran unbelievably hot in April, for instance, in the $109 MTTs I have played. I'll skip the details if you don't mind. What does it have to do with anything? If I won more money than you did, does it mean that I'm right and you're wrong? Or vice versa?


[ QUOTE ]
but just passing on spots like these (and then pushing that same A7 to a minraise) is enough to move up to a much bigger payout.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very much results-oriented thinking. I can tell you that NOT passing a spot like this is what brought me to 4th place in this specific tourney, for a ~$2500 win. Tell me I'm wrong. Unfortunately, that's not the best way to think about it. And again, I don't know what MTTs you're playing, but miniraises are not very common where I usualy play.

[adanthar]

Sorry about the late response, but here it is:

First, even an aggressive stack will not be raising every hand. If he's raising literally EVERY hand, all the more reason not to call, because he'll be called soon; either he'll win and you'll make the final table or he'll lose and you'll have FE again.

Right now, I basically play any MTT's I can find with an overlay, from $20 to $200. I've never seen a final table on which at least 2-3 people didn't limp, minraise, etc. Even on the sites with the strongest cores of MTT players, it just doesn't happen. Maybe the Party 109's are specifically that hard, I don't know.

As to the hand, all the ICM does is count up how much each chip you have is worth. Here, my guess is the ICM will say that your 8 BB are actually worth somewhere around a sixth or seventh place finish or so. I know that you aren't playing for sixth or seventh, but the point is you have more equity in the prize pool than you probably realize, and the 'each additional chip is worth less' idea should be given the greatest weight at final tables due to the payout structure that, up until a certain point, rewards waiting. (If you had half the chips in play, you'd still only be worth around third place.)

The ICM is flawed because it ignores the effect of having a big stack and FE and assumes everyone is equally skilled. However, precisely because you still probably have some FE (not to mention the 'he called all in with A5o???' factor), won't have a big stack by doubling up, and are more skilled than everyone else there, you shouldn't be taking a 45% chance of eleventh place money and a 55% of doubling your equity to something like fourth to sixth. (For exact numbers I'd have to look at the payouts and stacks.)

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
you shouldn't be taking a 45% chance of eleventh place money and a 55% of doubling your equity to something like fourth to sixth.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very unconvincing argument, since it completely ignores the huge jump in prize money that comes if you manange to put yourself in a better position to take one of the 3 first places (~$8.5K, ~5.5K, ~3.5K). I'm not playing for 1st because that's how you "supposed" to play, I'm playing for 1st because that's where the money is, very very simple. When I see a clear enough opportunity to get myself up the ladder in a reasonable +EV spot, I'm doing it. This is just one example out of many others. Surely, sometimes it will work, sometime it wouldn't, but I should feel I'm really risking too much in order to simply pass on something (it will happen much more often in later stages, obviously).

If you think that by doubling up here you gain nothing but a chance to win 4th, 5th or 6th on an equal distribution, then you should probably fold everything in this spot. I see why you think calling with AT is close.

Doubling up here on a clear +CEV spot can give me a very significant leverage for gaining more advantage towards the final stages of this game. My stealing potential will increase dramatically, and the fact that they saw me call all-in with A7o is very helpul for my image, as a weapon against steals. You are ignoring too many factors in your analysis of this situation.

Again, I have no problem with discussing how close is calling with A7o in this spot. However, it is very far from being an obvious fold, like you have stated before, and apparatnly still think so.