Pretend plays MLB 5/14

[HitHard69]

YTD (4-1) +3.56 units

White Sox/O's OVER 8
Winds blowing out of the Cell tonite, and with Konerko's 2-3 and 2 RBI's last night, he may have finally busted out of his slump, which signals more runs. Also since Everett came in to pinch hit last night, I'm going to assume he's healthy enough to start tonite

Texas Rangers +107 parlayed with Under 9
All I need to say is Kenny Rogers has been hot, 3-0 in his last three starts and hasnt given up a run in 21 innings. Texas has been playing decent ball while the Twins are starting to slip, having lost 3 of thier last 4.

[chiachu]

im happy to say i copied both of your bets /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Abagadro]

You should stop making these be "pretend." Good picks.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
YTD (4-1) +3.56 units


All I need to say is Kenny Rogers has been hot, 3-0 in his last three starts and hasnt given up a run in 21 innings.

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense to you... but with just 20 K's in 45 innings and 18 BB's to go with it - Rogers is likely to fall hard, fast. Name the last pitcher to throw 150+ innings in a season with less than a K every 2 innings and a K/BB ratio of 1.2 or less who managed an ERA of under 4.00.

[mrbaseball]

My guess is the 1.2 you reference is purely backfit data to make your point. No problem I do that a lot too /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Rogers is sort of an enigma. His K/BB has always been crappy. Lifetime his is only 1.72. His lowest season was 1996 when it was 1.11. He was 12-8 that year. Despite 17 years of crappy K/BB ratio he has amassed a 180-125 record. Lots of guys with much better K/BB ratios will never come close to approaching 180 wins.

So Rogers has something else going for him. I'm not sure what it is? But he evidently knows how to pitch much better than obviously more talented guys. He's the crafty veteran who can get the job done despite not fitting the mold of what is supposed to be important.

I wouldn't be surpised if Rogers fell off of the face of the earth and didn't win again. Until that starts happening though I'm not betting against him because he obviously has something going for him that isn't in the K/BB ratio!

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
My guess is the 1.2 you reference is purely backfit data to make your point. No problem I do that a lot too /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Rogers is sort of an enigma. His K/BB has always been crappy. Lifetime his is only 1.72. His lowest season was 1996 when it was 1.11. He was 12-8 that year. Despite 17 years of crappy K/BB ratio he has amassed a 180-125 record. Lots of guys with much better K/BB ratios will never come close to approaching 180 wins.

So Rogers has something else going for him. I'm not sure what it is? But he evidently knows how to pitch much better than obviously more talented guys. He's the crafty veteran who can get the job done despite not fitting the mold of what is supposed to be important.

I wouldn't be surpised if Rogers fell off of the face of the earth and didn't win again. Until that starts happening though I'm not betting against him because he obviously has something going for him that isn't in the K/BB ratio!

[/ QUOTE ]

Rogers career K/BB rate is 1.71. His career K rate is 5.7 K/9. Those are below average numbers, and the fact that he has managed an above average 4.21 career ERA probably means that he has some sort of ability to prevent runs beyond K/BB and K/9 rates.

Unfortunately, this season his K rate and his K/BB rate is far below even his career averages. His career rate stats are only slightly below average. This season, he is WAY below average, and his ERA is completely unsustainable. If he continues this type of performance, there is no way he will continue to contain opposing offenses.

Simply put, in this day and age, no pitcher is worth a damn unless he has a decent strikeout rate OR has phenomenal control. At this point of the season, Rogers has neither - thus he will either improve his K rate and K/BB rate or he will fall flat on his face.

[mrbaseball]

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His career rate stats are only slightly below average.

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Yet his career winning percentage is 59% which is wildly above average over 17 years and therefore no fluke. Some times you just have to ignore those numbers because some guys don't fit the mold yet succeed anyway.

I liked the chapter on Jamie Moyer in Moneyball where they claim he couldn't even get a tryout in this day and age.

Rogers may have "below average" stats in stuff that doesn't really matter but when looking at winning he somehow manages that.

And you are correct there is no way his current ERA is sustainable. But I'd say his winning percentage is sustainable. And after all, that's all that really matters.