How rich a pot/set-up for a small/medium pair gamble?

[Blarg]

'Twas the night before Christmas, and all through the house, a possible 3200 chips and 4 people knocked out...

Okay, I like to play small and medium pairs dirt cheap, especially in the early games, because you rarely flop sets, so they're not as attractive as they are in ring games.

But where do you start to say, the potential returns if I hit my set and it stands up are so great that I can take a raise I usually wouldn't take to play my small or medium pair?

Here's a hand where I was considering calling, a play with only a small chance of not being a loser, because an uncomfortable but still not tragic level of investment might give me a chance to bust out almost half the table if I hit. I know this call is usually a loser, but ... when does it become worth playing something like this in NL SNG's? This call isn't far from routine in limit ring games, but in those games, taking a flyer for a possible huge reward isn't as much of a risk.

***** Hand History for Game 2044576741 *****
NL Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:12180686 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Friday, May 13,

20:25:34 EDT 2005
Table Table 11229 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Terra_A ( $770 )
Seat 2: lovemoney_7 ( $825 )
Seat 3: skeomany714 ( $980 )
Seat 4: powertowin ( $680 )
Seat 5: italiandice7 ( $1405 )
Seat 6: BiggieGunz ( $740 )
Seat 7: faqabich ( $715 )
Seat 8: Hero ( $725 )
Seat 9: WaNtAcOoKiE3 ( $775 )
Seat 10: NYSENUTS ( $385 )
Trny:12180686 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 5s 5d ]
NYSENUTS: flash'em next time
skeomany714 calls [15].
powertowin folds.
italiandice7 folds.
BiggieGunz calls [15].
faqabich calls [15].
Hero calls [15].
WaNtAcOoKiE3 folds.
NYSENUTS calls [15].
Terra_A raises [110].
lovemoney_7 calls [105].
skeomany714 calls [105].
BiggieGunz calls [105].
faqabich folds.
>You have options at Table 11565 Table!.
Hero folds.
NYSENUTS is all-In [370]
Terra_A is all-In [650]
Hero: woot
lovemoney_7 folds.
skeomany714 calls [650].
BiggieGunz: dang wtf is this
BiggieGunz: gg all
BiggieGunz is all-In [620]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jd, Ts, 3d ]
italiandice7: somenes going homee
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ah ]
** Dealing River ** [ Kc ]
Terra_A shows [ Qd, Qh ] a straight, ten to ace.
skeomany714 shows [ Ac, Qs ] a straight, ten to ace.
BiggieGunz shows [ 9c, 9s ] a pair of nines.
NYSENUTS shows [ 7d, 7c ] a pair of sevens.
Terra_A wins 30 chips from side pot #2 with a straight, ten to ace.
skeomany714 wins 30 chips from side pot #2 with a straight, ten to ace.
Terra_A wins 533 chips from side pot #1 with a straight, ten to ace.
skeomany714 wins 532 chips from side pot #1 with a straight, ten to ace.
Terra_A wins 845 chips from the main pot with a straight, ten to ace.
skeomany714 wins 845 chips from the main pot with a straight, ten to ace.
NYSENUTS finished in tenth place.
BiggieGunz finished in ninth place.
BiggieGunz has left the table.
NYSENUTS has left the table.

[LeVoodoo]

[ QUOTE ]
But where do you start to say, the potential returns if I hit my set and it stands up are so great that I can take a raise I usually wouldn't take to play my small or medium pair?


[/ QUOTE ]

Been wondering the same thing lately. Like you, i play low pairs cheaply as possible. I fold to almost any raise. This is not a terrible way to play them, but it is not terribly profitable. Sometimes you'll get lucky with a set and somebody will pay you off but that is the exception. But assume a 3-4BB raise early in the tourney is TT-AA, hitting your set could very concievably double you up (especially at my 11-22 tables)

I suspect this is fallacious thinking though, because i could say the same thing about joining raised pots with low suited connectors. Hitting your straight/flush or two pair could pay you off just the same against a monster, but i doubt anybody would seriously consider doing that with any frequency.

[Blarg]

Except that connectors have little to no showdown value without improvement.

Compare that scenario to AK and AK and KQs all fighting each other, and none pairing up, when you hold as little as a pair of deuces.

A lot depends on the raise amount, too. But to me, a raise of 105 was too much. If I've limped a small or medium pair, I'll often call a raise of one or two big bets, especially if lots of people called, swelling the pot and giving me huge implied odds if I hit a set. That's not too much to call.

But what is? When is calling too much...actually worth it? Especially when it doesn't destroy your stack size to do it. In the limit ring games I'm used to, I suppose you could whittle it down to the pure math for the single hand in question, and be done with it. But SNG's have additional considerations.

A last note on suited connectors -- the time you'd find greatest value in playing them would be against a broad field of players, so you would get drawing odds. Which doesn't mean you'd play them, of course, just be much more likely to. There are some similarities to playing small and medium pairs there.

[Blarg]

I'm surprised I seem to be, with only one exception, the only one interested in this question.

Here's another example, this time from the opposite perspective:

***** Hand History for Game 2051135167 *****
NL Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:12219396 Level:2 Blinds(15/30) - Sunday, May 15, 01:04:49 EDT 2005
Table Table 11513 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: mdntoker ( $1510 )
Seat 2: Tony0125 ( $840 )
Seat 3: Hero ( $700 )
Seat 5: BigDealOrg ( $1590 )
Seat 7: x_gauss_x ( $760 )
Seat 8: coldbeer8888 ( $820 )
Seat 9: TJTPOKER ( $1075 )
Seat 10: msimmo ( $705 )
Trny:12219396 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ac As ]
coldbeer8888 calls [30].
TJTPOKER calls [30].
msimmo folds.
mdntoker folds.
Tony0125 folds.
Hero raises [90].
BigDealOrg raises [135].
x_gauss_x folds.
coldbeer8888 calls [120].
TJTPOKER calls [120].
Hero is all-In [610]
BigDealOrg calls [550].
coldbeer8888 folds.
TJTPOKER calls [550].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Tc, 9h, 8s ]
BigDealOrg checks.
TJTPOKER checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3c ]
BigDealOrg checks.
TJTPOKER checks.
** Dealing River ** [ 6s ]
BigDealOrg checks.
TJTPOKER is all-In [375]
BigDealOrg folds.
TJTPOKER shows [ 7c, 7d ] a straight, six to ten.
Hero shows [ Ac, As ] a pair of aces.
TJTPOKER wins 375 chips from side pot #1 with a straight, six to ten.
TJTPOKER wins 2280 chips from the main pot with a straight, six to ten.
Hero finished in eighth place.
Hero has left the table.