Poker Theory Thought For The Day - 5/13/05 - #3

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When you face a river betting decision playing limit hold'em against an agressive opponent who bluffs with the correct frequency, and you think the chance that your opponent might fold or call is about equal, then it is the percentage of the time that he will likely raise that matters. More than 33 percent, don't bet.

[brick]

I tried to approach this differently than normal river betting analysis and I screwed up the math.

x = % opp fold
y = % opp call
z = % opp raise

assume % opp fold = % opp call because we are totally unsure if the opponent will call or fold. But we can make a better guess at the % of the time the opponent will raise.

When x:
+0 BB

When y:
+1 BB

When z:
-2 BB (This should not be -2 BB because you expect that sometime the opponent will be bluffing which is why you call the raise at all. But if you payoff too much this number approaches -2.)

0 EV = 0x + 1x + -2(1-2x)
0 = 1x + -2 + 4x
2 = 5x
.4 = x = % opp fold
.4 = y = % opp call
.2 = z = % opp raise

In this situation you should not bet if you might be raised more than 20% of the time.