PDA

View Full Version : The Break Even Concept Revisited...


09-06-2001, 07:44 AM
The Break Even Concept Revisited...


The cards break even in the long run for everyone, so they say. The assumption implies that everyone will get their fare share of pocket Aces, Kings, Queens and the rest of the pairs on the tree. We all will get our fair share of Big Slick, Little Lick, troubled hands, suited and unsuited hands, and those junk hands considered long shots, listed in Group Eighty Six . But what about our fair share of wins with all of these hands? Do wins break even with each two card combination?


Lets start with those ugly unsuited two cards form Group Eighty Six. Most informed Hold'em players eighty-six them into the muck immediately without looking back. Unless they are held in an un-raised pot in the Big Blind. The only other time reasonable players invest in them is when they are on tilt. When tilt arrives, reason is sent packing and any two will do...


The Rock surly does not get his fair share of wins with the eighty-sixers. It's hard to win with any hand not present at the river. Yet we all know players who play these hands. They play them like a fined tuned violin. They rush their chips into the pot with high expectations of success. It's easier to count the hands they don't play, than to keep track of hands they do play. When they do muck a hand, inquiring minds want to know what two cards they won't play.


These players come from all over the Country an go by their middle name, Mark as in The Mark. The only time someone uses their first name is after Mark puts a bad beat on them. They'll say, "What The..." It's easy to see why Mark gets his fair share of wins with the eighty- sixer hands. He probably gets his fair share of wins with every two card combination. However, he must live through the downside of the break even point on all hands played also. Most of us don't play that many hands in a week.


Moving on to the playable hands, do all players get their fair share of wins with good starting hands? Should the answer be yes, then could someone please tell me who keeps track. How do the cards know you have won to many hands with AK, AQ, KK, JJ, etc. and now it's time to lose, so your statistics are breaking even with the thousands of other players waiting for their turn to win with the great starting hands. This whole concept of breaking even baffles the mind.


I am of the opinion that great starting hands that reach the winners circle, need no rocket scientist to ride them to the river. They pretty mush play them self. It's those pesky losing hands that separate the good the bad and the ugly players. And the concept of breaking even is one of the great mysteries of the world. How do inanimate cards know anything, especially where the break even point lies. The more I think of about this game my head hurts. There are more questions, than there are answers...


SPM,..., play long and prosper...

09-06-2001, 10:47 PM
It's possible that before one of us reaches the end of our poker career there will be a rag hand that you will show a profit on and I a loss, or visa-versa. You might go to your grave having made $$ on 94o, while this hand proves to be a net loser for me. I on the other hand, might wind up showing a profit with from J3o while you showed a lifetime loss, etc. However, we both should hit roughly the same percentage of our legitimate hands, i.e.- you will make a top pair with AK just under 33% of the time and so will I. You will go on to make a flush (after flopping a 4-flush) roughly the same percentage as I will, etc. Of course, if one of us plays more suited hands than the other, then the number of flushes made will be greater. But the percentage of flushes made will be close enough to the same that it won't be significant. Is this what you meant?