HU and second guessing myself

[droolie]

Party 2/4 10 players....

Villian is a TAG and probably one of you guys.

I was really unsure what to do on every street. I'm used to playing against weaker players in multiway pots but this situation HU had me all out of sorts.



Preflop
Hero has JJ in EP and raises. It's folded to the button who three bets. For some reason I decide to just call this three bet. (Let's not spend too much time here because I know that was a big f up. This is the first example of being out of sorts due to it being HU.)

Flop is J,T, brick rainbow.

I checkraise and villian calls. (I assume just betting out is the correct play here. This C/R screwed me up for the rest of the hand. Definite FPS on my part. Since villian was a TAG I was hoping he would think I was trying to be tricky and trying to rip the pot away from him and he would punish me and try to rip the pot back away on the turn with an overpair or possibly even overcards. Thoughts on this?)

Turn
A (4th suit if I remember correctly)
This time I bet out and we cap. (This was a continuation of my flop move where I was hoping to get TAG to punish me for being tricky...obviously when he capped I was concerned about AA being out but I also knew there was a strong chance he had AK, AQ or AJs)

River
K

What's my play here?

[Octopus]

Flop: Bet hoping to 3-bet.
Turn: Fine. You are only behind to AA and KQ (which likely wouldn't have 3-bet pre-flop).
River: Check-call and pray he has AK or AJ. The problem here is that I don't think you can't fold to a raise, even though it means you are almost certainly beat. (I'd be open to an argument for bet/fold though. It depends on exactly what we think he'll do with his various possible hands. If there is any chance he would raise with AK, then that line is really bad.)

[Harv72b]

I don't think not capping with JJ while OOP in a 2/4 game is a bad move. I routinely just call a 3-bet there.

Bet/3-bet the flop. You know that.

Bet/3-bet the turn. When he caps it, though, I'm prepared to check/call the river--a TAG is not often going to overplay AK or AJ like that.

Check/call the river. He isn't going to put you on a Q given the way you've played this hand, so he will bet the river with worse hands than your set. He will not fold a better hand for 1 bet if you bet out.

[chief444]

I bet the the flop so I can 3-bet.

Turn is OK. Although I question whether AK or AQ would cap. KQ is unlikely to 3-bet preflop. AJ also unlikely to 3-bet preflop. KK or QQ are unlikely to cap the turn. I think after the turn cap TT or AA are the most likely hands.

I'd actually bet the river here because I really don't see the opponent having anything with a Q very often and I can't see two pair or AA raising. AK or TT will call though. They may however check through the river on this board.

[GetThere1Time]

I think I like betting and folding to a raise here. Villian smells an awful lot like TT and if he has AK and got crazy on the turn he'll pay that off too. Even if he has AA or KK, he'll have a hard time raising the river without a Q and you're calling a bet anyway.

[elindauer]

Although I might have played it a little differently, you played the hand fine. Calling the 3-bet pf is fine. Check-raising the flop is fine.

On the river, bet, call a raise. He doesn't have AK, he has a set. It's just a question of which set, AA or TT. He'll probably raise them both, and I think TT is slightly more likely as many players will 3-bet the overpair on the flop. Even though you're still a favorite when he raises the river, you can't 3-bet as you are now offering 2:1 in a spot where he is much more likely to have you beaten if he caps.

Good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I like betting and folding to a raise here. Villian smells an awful lot like TT...

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you see that villain can hold TT and advocate folding to a rasie? You don't think he ever raises the river with this set? Don't you think he can put his opponent on AJ?

-Eric

[GetThere1Time]

Do you think the TAG is still raising TT on this river after he gets caps the turn and gets led into?

[droolie]

Do we really think TT is such a strong possibility? I hadn't even considered that as being realistic when he called my flop C/R.

Results below...
<font color="white">Villian shows AQ MHING What do you guys think of villian's play here? Is this typical? It seems like spewing to me.</font>

[GetThere1Time]

I thought TT was more likely than AQ.

[tizim]

I actually prefer check-raising the flop, calling if 3-bet, and bet/3-betting the turn here depending on the turn card. IMO that line gets the most out of overpairs and overcards against a TAG. I like check/calling on the flop and bet/3-betting the turn as well, as Villain is more likely to raise the turn if you just check/call the flop.

I check/call this river because:
1) we can't fold to a raise,
2) with his aggression on previous streets, he's likely to bet AK/TT here anyway, and
3) I don't even think we're ahead &gt;50% of the time.

I don't think you can ever fold the river in a pot this big without an extremely strong read. Just because he has TAG stats doesn't mean he plays optimally, and even a tough opponent could be on tilt or have some crazy image of you that leads him to raise this river with TT or AK.

[Shillx]

On the river, bet, call a raise.

Whatever you decide on...make sure that it is NOT this.

He will usually raise the river with hands that you can't beat and just call with everything that you can. Since he will bet a set or a straight when we check to him, it gains us the same when we check/call and win and costs us less when we check/call and lose.

Brad

Edit - KQs can't be overlooked in this spot as well.

[DMBFan23]

Shillx,

how often do you think we are good?

how often do you estimate he bets something we beat if we check?

how often will he call with the hands he won't bet himself?

how often does he raise something we beat, and is it often enough that we need to call the raise?

I think this is very similar to a clark theorem situation, but not fully. he is much more likely to raise hands we beat on this board than he would be on a 4 flush board.

[droolie]

Btw- I didn't see any value in a river bet. There was no way I could lay this down to a bet/ raise and he's not folding to anything I can't beat so I check called. Forgot to mention that in my results post.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian shows AQ MHING What do you guys think of villian's play here? Is this typical? It seems like spewing to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

In my opinion, Villain overplayed his hand.

[dtbog]

As Villain, I just call this turn looking for a cheap showdown. Though villain hit top pair, it seems pretty clear that he's not actually ahead of much, given preflop and flop action.

However, if I were villain and for some reason decided to raise the turn, I think I cap here instead of calling a 3-bet.

Does anyone agree? If so, why? I'll post reasoning later on.

-dB

[tizim]

[ QUOTE ]
However, if I were villain and for some reason decided to raise the turn, I think I cap here instead of calling a 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see no reason at all to cap. All capping does is possibly make us pay an extra BB to showdown our hand. If I were villain and misclicked and raised, then I'd call down and get to showdown as cheaply as possible, hoping to river the K. In fact, allowing the opponent to stay the aggressor gives us the opportunity to raise and get an extra BB should we hit the straight.

[afk]

Hey droolie,

I don't think not capping preflop is a big mistake.

On the flop I would bet so I could either 3bet, or call his raise and check-raise the turn. I think the way the hand played out I'd check-call the river, though dmb's got me thinking and I'm also considering bet/folding the river.