Top two - 100NL

[Ojo_Rojo]

I had just sat down, so unfortunately no reads. What would you do on the river?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG ($105.55)
UTG+1 ($97.35)
MP1 ($220.2)
MP2 ($225.15)
Hero ($104.55)
CO ($14.92)
Button ($98.5)
SB ($49.38)
BB ($101.46)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4.5</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls $3.50.

Flop: ($10.50) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8.5</font>, UTG+1 calls $8.50.

Turn: ($27.50) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, UTG+1 calls $15.

River: ($57.50) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 calls $69.35 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: $126.85

Comments on all streets appreciated... would checking on the turn be a better play?
Am I just too weak? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Many thanks in advance,

Ojo_Rojo

[swolfe]

yeah, check behind on the turn and call a reasonable river bet. you're well ahead of an A hand, but pretty far behind anything else. the flush draw got there, so there's no use betting to protect against it.

checking behind will keep the pot small and the bet you call on the river will be about the same as what you actually bet on the turn.

[Warder]

How can you check behind on the turn and allow another club to hit?

[snappo]

[ QUOTE ]
How can you check behind on the turn and allow another club to hit?

[/ QUOTE ]

You just can.

In other words that risk is small enough to be outweighed by the benefits of checking behind. If another club comes on the river and he makes a reasonable bet you just fold.

[pyedog]

Interesting advice. I wouldn't have thought of that myself. I guess it's a way ahead / way behind situation once the potential flush hits (the fourth flush card only hits one in five times, which is relatively infrequent).

So the way it played out you would fold to the river push then, correct? Is this a common move by opponents to disguise their made hand and make it look like a bluff? Seems strange because if Hero had a high club then he would call a smallish check raise on the turn anyways, but that would totally give away villain's hand. I'm just curious if you guys like villain's play on this hand, assuming that he did hit a flush. And what are the chances that an unknown player is bluffing with this betting sequence. I guess if he's decent then he must know this looks like a bluff, and hence want to be called. But could he have hit some strange lower two pair instead?

These confusing hands are why I'm thinking of moving back to limit for awhile. Because at NL25 I usually just stare blankly at the monitor in confusion, then say eff it and call. Yup, they usually have the hand they are representing.

[swolfe]

yes, as played, i'd fold to the river push. he could have hit two pair and think it's good, but i'm not putting my stack in with a two pair hand without a good read. like i said in a post yesterday, two pair is just a one pair hand with a better than top kicker. i think it's more likely that he hit the flush or flopped a set.

as for villain's play, if we assume he was on a flush draw that hit on the turn, then i don't like it. it was played like a fish with the check/call line and it's easy to get away from when they hit.

the important thing with this hand is that it's a really good hand. we WANT to see showdown because it's very likely that we'll win the pot. however, it's not good enough that i want to risk my stack with it. betting the turn not only builds the pot, but what happens if villain check-raises? we pretty much have to fold our showdown worthy hand.

checking behind controls the pot size so that a bet on the river will be reasonable to call. and if checked to, you can probably make a value bet since it's unlikely a flush would check the river after you checked through the turn.

[Warder]

This was a very difficult hand for me to make a good decision on. On the the flop the only hands that beat us are AA,QQ,77, with 77 standing out most in my mind since he limped. (Do you limp AA,KK,QQ in EP with a full table left to act and hope it gets raised up? I've only done this a few times since i've been playing) The only flush I could give him credit for is KJc... it's the only reasonable call I see to the preflop raise and not too reasonable at that.(Again... I'm not very aggressive so I don't try to see raised pots and steal pots away from people) If he did have KJc then I don't see much wrong with how his opponent played it.

[Warder]

The question I would like some response to is what other people think of the turn check by UTG+1. Do you think he's reluctant that the flush hit? If he didn't hit a flush... don't you think he would check raise the turn if he has trips?

[Marcotte]

[ QUOTE ]
These confusing hands are why I'm thinking of moving back to limit for awhile. Because at NL25 I usually just stare blankly at the monitor in confusion, then say eff it and call. Yup, they usually have the hand they are representing.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is probably +EV to fold half the time you find your self staring at the monitor in confusion. /images/graemlins/grin.gif