My second stupid play at 3/6

[sweetjazz]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (5.33 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 4.16 BB

The problem here is that button is 62.5/0/1.1 with a WTSD of 58%. A small pocket pair out of position is exactly the kind of hand I don't want to have against button. I'm going to often find myself betting his hand for him most of the way. And this opponent is aggressive enough that if I check at any point and he bets, I won't know if he's just sensing weakness or has a hand (though I'd suspect the latter and fold). And I really don't want to check until the river to avoid giving a free card.

I just don't like 55 in this spot. The fact that I could have been 3-bet by CO or been called by one of the blinds makes me think this is a fold here. Assuming I wasn't pushed off the best hand by villain raising the flop after coldcalling preflop with something like AK or AQ or who knows what, I was probably lucky that he raised right away so I could get away from this hand.

I'd tend to raise 55 here if the CO and button are both tight, though.

How's my analysis? I don't think the 55 raise is so terrible, as it's probably only slightly -EV. But I wished I had folded as soon as I clicked the raise button when I remembered that the loose passive player was on the button. Despite his general ineptitude, 55 OOP is not the hand that is designed to make a profit from his poor playing style. If it were heads up against him, I'd probably still raise with it OOP, but since I could have gotten action as well from the remaining TAGs, I really didn't like my open-raise there.

[sweetjazz]

Shameless bump. I am being too results-oriented in wishing I had folded 55 preflop. I am a big fan of stealing, but my read told me this was not the time to try it.

[DMBFan23]

this is fine, you can see a showdown against a very LAGGY player but he doesn't seem to be that type. you're probably beaten by something like 88 or even TT, or perhaps A9s/T9s. your effective odds on a calldown suck.

[sweetjazz]

I probably wasn't clear about this in the initial post, but I think that the mistake made in this hand was preflop. I think bet/fold on the flop is okay (though I'd be willing to hear arguments otherwise).

The fact that my steal success odds have gone down, that I might be playing OOP against a loose player whose aggression is hard for me to assess at this point, and that there are 3 TAGs still left to act who could wake up with big hands and put me in a tough spot...all this tells me I shouldn't raise preflop with 55 here. FWIW, I tend to be pretty aggressive with steal raises, but I am really trying to get to the point where I include the table dynamics as a keep component of my decisions in these kind of situations.

[jskills]

I think this is fine preflop. You should not limp here and why toss 55 away when you're right in front of the cut off and everyone has folded. I believe opening the pot this way is the best play.

What I'd prefer on the flop is to see the raise called. Button could be attempting to get a free showdown with over cards, could have almost anything. A flop raise (especially heads up) doesn't always indicate you're beat here.

A better question is - what is the range of hands he's just calling a raise with preflop? Could be a lot of things, most of which resemble suited overcards or mid pocket pairs.

So now what is he just calling the preflop raise with that is making him raise the flop bet here?

99, 88, 77, 66, 22 would all suck for you, but 66 and 22 are not likely to call a raise preflop vs. a lone opponent. So maybe it's 99-77 (in which case you're done). However, (1) if he does have 99, why not just smooth call and wait for the turn to raise you again and (2) the other range of hands he would call a preflop raise is pretty broad, however none of them are helped by this flop.

So his flop raise could be an attempt to slow you down and not a real show of strength. I'd have to call the raise for a single SB here and at least see the turn.

I could be wrong in my approach, but I can't see folding in this spot so quickly.