MOST out of the money in a ROW???

[raptor517]

well, tonight was by far, the worst night of poker in my entire life. i played great as far as i can tell, i reviewed a couple HH's, ran some numbers, made sure i was playing correctly, but it just didnt work out. in a game dominated by coinflips and relying on people to fold trash that the end up calling with and sucking out with, you can go a lot of games without making the money. if someone told me last week that a solid, 10% + roi player could go more than 20 sngs without making the money, i would have laughed in his face.

so anyways, here is a poll, just for fun i guess, since i better quit right now before i destroy my bankroll in step 5s or something. bleh. oh yea, i have gone 22 ootm now without makin money. if anyone has ever done worse, may god have mercy on your soul.

[raptor517]

oh, and a ps, my PREVIOUS worst was 14. quite a big jump if you ask me.. sigh. ggs life. holla

[Jimbobobb]

I've definitely done it, sometimes it just happens. As a coincidence, today was also my worst day of poker ever. I feel for you sir, but don't worry, if you're playing the game well you'll come out of it.

Nights like this suck btw:

4
4
4
4
4
7
4
4
4
5
4
4
4

Then I threw my mouse at the monitor and played Taiko Drummaster for 3 hours cause I needed to hit things. I highly recommend this game for bad sessions.

[raptor517]

ddr is good too. too bad im too mad to do anything but rant, rave, and break stuff. holla

[michw]

17 in a row is my personal best. Sample size is about 1100 Party 30+3's. Out of my 17, however, I made a couple horrendous mistakes.

[Bigwig]

My longest, I believe, in almost 4000 is 12. Maybe 13. My second longest is 8 or 9. I've been very blessed with not having too many long OTM streaks. Of course, I've still had very bad runs of 200 or so SNGs. Just not a lot of long consecutive OTM streaks.

[LeVoodoo]

[ QUOTE ]
Nights like this suck btw:

4
4
4
4
4
7
4
4
4
5
4
4
4

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, that looks eerily familiar. Out of 80 tournies yesterday, i went out 4th 35 times. It was depressing.

[DonButtons]

rigged

[Degen]

sorry dude, big limin was sayin last night that there is no way a winning player could drop more than 30 buy-ins in 100 tourneys w/out playing badly in the process...

me and you have both had some horrendous runs over the last week or two (though mine a bit more spread out than this hotness)...lets hope he's wrong.


keep yer head up man, you'll pull out of it.


Andre

[AleoMagus]

This reply is not just for you Raptor, but also for many others who I am sure have felt much the same as you do now (though probably not to the tune of 22 OTMs!)

Like it or not, the odds that a run like this is just really bad variance, is really really small.

Statments like:

[ QUOTE ]
in a game dominated by coinflips and relying on people to fold trash that the end up calling with and sucking out with, you can go a lot of games without making the money.

[/ QUOTE ]

while somewhat true, often tend to obfuscate the truth that you are currently faced with. You probably brought a lot of that streak on yourself whether you like it or not. The odds of it happening otherwise are just so remote.

In fact, lets just assume that you are a 36% ITM player and take a look at how remote.

0.64^22=0.0000544, or 1/18367

Ok, so not that bad I guess. Considering the amount some of you play, I guess this might even be expected in the course of a couple years play. Still, it's remote enough to at least consider that in the latter stages of the streak some poor plays and frustration were clouding judgement.

Remember also that I used 36% as a low estimate considering some of the stakes that you play. If ITM is higher than this, the chances get much slimmer real quick.

I once had a streak of 7 4th place finishes which I though was just bad luck until I plugged the numbers on it. At the time, I was getting 4th about 15%.

0.15^7=0.0000017, or 1/588235

So, looking at that, I could expect this every 588235 tourneys. Not likely that it was just due to chance.

Don't get me wrong, it certainly is possible that it was just due to chance, but the cahnces are remote enough to give me pause. This is what I am suggesting to you as well.

Looking at some of the other posts in this thread like the list of almost all 4ths and the 35/100 4ths, I can tell you that the chances of these streaks is just so slim that you have to start looking at what went on to bring it about. As I said, it's possible it's just an anomaly, but it's more likely that it is self delusion.

I am NOT saying that any of you might be bad at poker or that you might be a loser or any other thing like that. I suspect that you already know otherwise or you don't. I am just saying that if you dropped 6 of those buy-ins out of tilt, and that if you do something like this every few hundred tourneys (not 22 OTM, just a few uneccessary losses) then it has a real effect on your bottom line and can be as big a leak as any other.

Regards
Brad S

[curtains]

Your example of 7 4th place finishes in a row is poor in terms of expecting to find a leak there. If you'd have just finished 5th or 6th a few of those times, it's a normal 7 OTM streak, instead of some worrysome 4th place trend.

[curtains]

btw - I agree that if you drop 22 in a row and are a 36% ITM player you are almost surely playing poorly for some stretch of that streak.

[johnnybeef]

raptor, i think it is time to come to reality with being a losing player. /images/graemlins/grin.gif in all seriousness though, during the weekend that you had your challenge on a saturday, i did it the next sun and went 15 in a row ootm. ended up down 20 buyins in one day and 60 sngs played. then the next night i played in 12 and took 1st in 6 of em including my first and only grand slam. remember to be disciplined and play within your roll, or better yet take the rest of the night off and youll be fine.

[shejk]

OMG 22 OTM in STEP FIVES?!? OMG WTF!

[byronkincaid]

[censored] bad runs. Stupid [censored] ignorent cunts calling with [censored]. What the [censored] do they think they're doing the thick fucks. You play [censored] perfect and you still [censored] lose to those dumb fucks. Stupid [censored] job. Who the [censored] wants to do this for a living anyway? Have to be [censored] thick. It's all [censored] rigged. Bastards. Party poker cunts. 3 outer wankers. J5 calling morons. [censored] em all, buncha mother fuckers all of em.

[censored] I've just thrown my monitor through the window /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Degen]

you missed a couple censored's /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Andre

[byronkincaid]

Stupid [censored] censor

[Madd]

[ QUOTE ]
I once had a streak of 7 4th place finishes which I though was just bad luck until I plugged the numbers on it. At the time, I was getting 4th about 15%.

0.15^7=0.0000017, or 1/588235

So, looking at that, I could expect this every 588235 tourneys. Not likely that it was just due to chance.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't take a string of events out of several thousands sitngos and then afterwards calculate how unlikely this string of events was. I'm surprised that you as somebody with excellent knowledge of statistics make it seem like you could do that. In each and every huge sample you will find some strange anomalies.

That being said, we are all human, and it is entirely possible (and likely) that our play is affected by bad results (e.g. five 4ths in a row) and we start to fail bad decisions (-> self-fulfilling prophecies).

At least, these bad results have the positive effect of a motivation to check and improve our play.

[Vetstadium]

The other day I go 0-12 take dinner break have two beers then rol off ten itm's. This game is def streaky.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
I once had a streak of 7 4th place finishes which I though was just bad luck until I plugged the numbers on it. At the time, I was getting 4th about 15%.

0.15^7=0.0000017, or 1/588235

So, looking at that, I could expect this every 588235 tourneys. Not likely that it was just due to chance.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hell, that's nothing. Last night I played ten tournaments, and look at my finishes:

3
7
6
4
8
9
7
2
7
4

I calculated that I would have a run like that once every ten BILLION hands (.10 * .10 * .10 * .10 * .10 * .10 * .10 * .10 * .10 * .10). Tell me that Party Poker isn't rigged.

[multifast1]

[ QUOTE ]
0.64^22=0.0000544, or 1/18367

[/ QUOTE ]

Look on the bright side.... you're not due for another streak like that for about the next 18,000 tournaments!! /images/graemlins/grin.gif Once you get to 17,500 more, I'd just stop playing if I were you.

[chopchoi]

[ QUOTE ]
Last night I played ten tournaments, and look at my finishes:

3
7
6
4
8
9
7
2
7
4

I calculated that I would have a run like that once every ten BILLION hands (.10 * .10 * .10 * .10 * .10 * .10 * .10 * .10 * .10 * .10). Tell me that Party Poker isn't rigged.

[/ QUOTE ]

LMAO

[pokerlaw]

I am of the opinion that long stretchs like this, including a 15 of 16 OTM streak i had in jan, are bad luck and bad skill. I analogize it to slumps athletes have. For example, Jeter's long AB streak which he failed to get a hit last year (think it was bet'n 30-40 at bats). he is a career .300 hitter so it is very unlikely that this would ever happen. Sports Illustrated had a good article about slumps last year, with jeter and his streak on the cover, and the psycology of them.

To sum it up very briefly, and from what i remember from a year ago, the author was of the belief that the losing gets into your head and before you know it, you are making little changes/mistakes that prolong the drought. Kindof like a losing begets losing thing.

[Apathy]

damn that's a shitty day. How many of these were 55s? (Hopefully all of them). Looks like noone did well yesterday, I'm glad I was only down vig at the bar...

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like noone did well yesterday

[/ QUOTE ]

I made $800 playing $22s yesterday. You guys suck!!! /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[Iamafish]

.....ring games. GL guys! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[multifast1]

[ QUOTE ]
...To sum it up very briefly, and from what i remember from a year ago, the author was of the belief that the losing gets into your head and before you know it, you are making little changes/mistakes that prolong the drought. Kind of like a losing begets losing thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

So true! It's the SnGer's version of tilting. You let a bad suck out.. or three.. effect how you act in the following tournies. Sometimes you stop being as aggressive as you need to be for fear of taking another bad beat.. or you start taking too many unnecessary risks thinking it can't possibly happen to me X times in a row. Basically you deviate for your normal strategy and that's where bad luck leads to bad play.

How many times have you heard "I finished OTM in 24 of 26 today but them placed ITM in the first 5 played the next day" (insert your own numbers there)? Coincidence... maybe but I think it has more to do with SnG tilting. If you have a bad streak, take a break and come back fresh. Never try to "play out of it".

[microbet]

Interesting. I just ran some calcs. If your ITM is 35%, you would expect to go 22 OOTM every 13,059 games, which is probably less than Raptor has played.

Actually at 40% ITM it would be expected every 76,000 games and if you have played as many games as Raptor has played 22 could reasonably just be bad luck and not tilt.

My worst is 15. That was the first time I tried 4 tabling and I know I made a bunch of mistakes.

[tminus]

six is the worst for me...
my own personal rule is after 4 in a row within one day I quit for the day...because i get emotional about it

i also make a habit of sending my hands for those games to my friends so they can verify my plays...sometimes i get a bit skewed and they help me see it

[Blarg]

[ QUOTE ]
The other day I go 0-12 take dinner break have two beers then rol off ten itm's. This game is def streaky.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not at all. You've just proven the power of beer.

[Blarg]

14 was my worst, when I was on the 5's and just starting to learn.

Good luck Raptor!

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
six is the worst for me...
my own personal rule is after 4 in a row within one day I quit for the day...because i get emotional about it

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow -- If I played with that rule, I'd have to get a new hobby to use up my spare time.

[Blarg]

Me too. I've had 4 in a row out of the money on some incredibly good days.

If 4 in a row out of the money throws you off all that much, something wrong is going on.

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
you would expect to go 22 OOTM every 13,059 games, which is probably less than Raptor has played.

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet he's near that number... they add up quick when you're 12-tabling!!

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
14 was my worst, when I was on the 5's and just starting to learn.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. That should make him feel better. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Sponger15SB]

This is every tourney I've played today...

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v641/Sponger15aa/Isuckshit.jpg

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
This is every tourney I've played today...

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v641/Sponger15aa/Isuckshit.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL -- I love the comments...

[Blarg]

Me too. 136 and 138 cracked me up.

[Freudian]

My highest is 13. And that wasn't even that hard. Some missed coinflips and there I was.

With some training and the bad luck of a lifetime, I bet I could own your 22.

[Voltron87]

i have been on a sweet two week burner. i've been winning 80% of the time when I have A4 and they have KTs, especially headsup and 3 handed for 7000 chips.

[1C5]

You guys will laugh at this then. When I first played I used to make comments like that also. I don't bother doing it anymore but let me find them.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
Me too. 136 and 138 cracked me up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have some other pretty funny ones too.

A couple months ago I used to do this, and I would do something insane for every single one like....

Like .... "AJ vs T9. YEAH GOOD CALL DIPSHIT MAYBE I HAD T8? WHAT ARE YOU [censored] STUPID YOU [censored] PIECE OF [censored]? THINK ABOUT IT? YOU TRYING TO GIVE AWAY YOUR MONEY? WTF WTF WTF WTF"

[Voltron87]

THNX 4 UR $$$$$$!!!11

[raptor517]

wow that is almost identical to what my spreadsheets look like /images/graemlins/wink.gif holla

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
This is every tourney I've played today...

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v641/Sponger15aa/Isuckshit.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad to see that our feedback to your poll has helped your results. No need to thank us.

What were the stacks in 136?

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm glad to see that our feedback to your poll has helped your results. No need to thank us.

What were the stacks in 136?

[/ QUOTE ]

IIRC, it was like 150/300 blinds, and I was in the SB and had like 1600 chips and he had me covered.

It wasn't like I had 500 from the button and he called from the BB.

Sometimes when people auto call all ins with less than stellar hands it confuses the crap out of me.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting. I just ran some calcs. If your ITM is 35%, you would expect to go 22 OOTM every 13,059 games, which is probably less than Raptor has played.

Actually at 40% ITM it would be expected every 76,000 games and if you have played as many games as Raptor has played 22 could reasonably just be bad luck and not tilt.

My worst is 15. That was the first time I tried 4 tabling and I know I made a bunch of mistakes.

[/ QUOTE ]

to be honest, a lot of you have been talking about how its a combination of bad play AND bad variance. well, as for the bad variance.. micro gives some numbers that should help people see how easy it CAN be to have a streak like that. now, most of you probably havent played 13,059 games, and a lot of you are probably above 35% itm. however, 13k+ sngs isnt a whole lot more than i have actually played, and i may have even played more lifetime.

as for bad play? maybe. however, i have a VERY low tilt factor in sngs. if i DO go on tilt, it is by putting myself in MARGINAL +ev spots instead of VERY +ev spots. i dont find myself EVER making bad calls. period. i just simply dont call bad, which is the BIGGEST leak of sng players. when i push that 46 from utg on the bubble at 200-400 when im chip leader, and button has 200 chips, and BB wakes up with KK, is that a leak when i lose? no.

so to all of you sngers out there, believe me, im not tilting up, im not going broke, and im sure as hell not taking a day off. i dont do that. im going to start up my 12 tables right now, just like i did yesterday, and make all my money back. or go 17 ootms in a row. who knows. thats poker. holla

[1C5]

You guys will like this. I used to make comments just like that but stopped doing it as you will see why.

First this is how it started.

http://img129.echo.cx/img129/9614/ok0bf.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

But then soon turned into: (Yes I was insane) /images/graemlins/grin.gif

http://img129.echo.cx/img129/5893/then6sj.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[imcastleman]

You haven't played poker long enough if you haven't had >20 game loss. My worse is 24.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm glad to see that our feedback to your poll has helped your results. No need to thank us.

What were the stacks in 136?

[/ QUOTE ]

IIRC, it was like 150/300 blinds, and I was in the SB and had like 1600 chips and he had me covered.

It wasn't like I had 500 from the button and he called from the BB.

Sometimes when people auto call all ins with less than stellar hands it confuses the crap out of me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, things change a bit after you are in the money. 2nd place is for losers. People push with a lot more, and they call with a lot more.

If you had been stealing from him a lot on the bubble, he was probably just waiting to cash before putting a stop to it. Once he saw a King, he was auto calling. Just a guess.

I had this hand in a 109 the other day. I'm not sure how many chips your villian had, but I probably would've called with K7 here too.

Blinds 200/400
Button - Villian 1615
SB - 3715
BB - pvs 4670

Dealt to pvs [Qd Jh]

Button raises allin
SB folds
pvs calls

[bones]

The worst is when I can't load a new [censored] sng when I get [censored] sucked out on for another 8 [censored] minutes because Party not only wants to take my [censored] money but the want to [censored] aggravate me even further by making me [censored] wait.

[nebben]

The thing is, hes a 10% ROI player. That has gotta change the probability by quite a bit.

[draw2aflush]

u played 80 tornyyyyyyys in 1 day?

[draw2aflush]

i have played about 1000 sngo's mostly 30s and 50s my longest otm is 9 knock on wood even though u reached ur peak i dont know if that is really bad or not i think it might depend on how many 1st u get when u do make the money cause i seem to get a lot more 2nds and 3rds than 1sts so maybe u r just very agrresive and win alot so i think u would take longer droughts lets hope that is the case for ur sake by the way my itm is 47.6% so i think there is some merit atleast a bit take care

[DasLeben]

I went 5 in a row OOTM last night (no big deal, really), but honestly felt great afterwards. Every push was +EV, and there were no missed opportunities. Sometimes the poker gods just give you the shaft. There's nothing you can do about it besides keep playing correctly. *shrugs*

[DasLeben]

[ QUOTE ]
i have played about 1000 sngo's mostly 30s and 50s my longest otm is 9 knock on wood even though u reached ur peak i dont know if that is really bad or not i think it might depend on how many 1st u get when u do make the money cause i seem to get a lot more 2nds and 3rds than 1sts so maybe u r just very agrresive and win alot so i think u would take longer droughts lets hope that is the case for ur sake by the way my itm is 47.6% so i think there is some merit atleast a bit take care

[/ QUOTE ]

Grammar is your freund. And if you're 47.6% ITM over 1k tournies, you are l33ter than everyone...ever.

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
i have played about 1000 sngo's mostly 30s and 50s ... [a bunch of incoherent babble] ... by the way my itm is 47.6

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody believes you.

[Page Jacobson]

To me the SNG's are tilt proof. I used to play in the low limit ring games and you couldn't get the chasers to lay down their cards for anything. I would go on tilt regularly trying to get my money back from the idiots that would hit runner runner to crack my AA.

With SNG's I put up my $11 and if some yo yo wants to chase that flush he'll have to spend a lot of chips to get there. And when that happens (and it happens a lot at the $11's) I reload into a new tourny and I never see that guy again.

My longest streak so far is 15 and I play them one at a time. I also had a streak of 20 where all I had was 1 3rd.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
i have played about 1000 sngo's mostly 30s and 50s my longest otm is 9 knock on wood even though u reached ur peak i dont know if that is really bad or not i think it might depend on how many 1st u get when u do make the money cause i seem to get a lot more 2nds and 3rds than 1sts so maybe u r just very agrresive and win alot so i think u would take longer droughts lets hope that is the case for ur sake by the way my itm is 47.6% so i think there is some merit atleast a bit take care

[/ QUOTE ]

longest sentence I've ever read.

nh James Joyce

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i have played about 1000 sngo's mostly 30s and 50s ... [a bunch of incoherent babble] ... by the way my itm is 47.6

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody believes you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe he is talking about HU SNGs?

[draw2aflush]

OK,first of all I am not an english major as you might have guessed but,it does give me a warm and fuzzy feeling to know how many people are concerned with my grammar.I do not really understand why the itm % I posted seems so unreal.It is what it is.What would be my purpose in lying.Maybe adding that at the end of my post was a mistake.I do apoligize if it came across as bragging but,it is the truth as well as I also had noted that I mostly get 2nd and 3rds not 1st.So that could easily be why my worst streak otm has been 9.I was curious if maybe the poster might have a high % of 1st.Just curious.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
i have played about 1000 sngo's mostly 30s and 50s my longest otm is 9 knock on wood even though u reached ur peak i dont know if that is really bad or not i think it might depend on how many 1st u get when u do make the money cause i seem to get a lot more 2nds and 3rds than 1sts so maybe u r just very agrresive and win alot so i think u would take longer droughts lets hope that is the case for ur sake by the way my itm is 47.6% so i think there is some merit atleast a bit take care

[/ QUOTE ]



How come everyone who comes here posting insane ROI and ITM numbers would have a -50% ROI if sit and go's were actually spelling bee's.

[curtains]

I also like how every one of these random posters with absurdly impossible ITM and ROI numbers always defends themselves with "why would I lie about this?"

People lie all the time to make themselves look better to others. The approval of one's peers is extremely important for a lot of people and they will sometimes go to any lengths to acheive it.

[microbet]

Pretty much nothing is more important to us male primates than status.

One of my favorite books. (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0801863368/104-4027729-8661515?v=glance)

[Blarg]

I always find it hilarious when people IRL use the "why would you doubt me?" or "Why would I lie?" defense, making a cute switcheroo so that it seem like you're the one doing something terrible to question them in the first place -- Yes, THEM OF ALL PEOPLE. And they're a total stranger LOL.

Okay, suuuuuuuure. I believe all strangers are always 100% credible. That's an altar I would love to be sacrificed on. Please stab me now!

I think it's hilarious when some weasel tries to act like anyone non-retarded should automatically believe everything they say.

Not that the poster being responded to is a weasel; but I've bumped into tons of weasels who try to shoot that cheesy How could you doubt me? angle. I usually take it is pretty solid proof that they're untrustworthy or outright liars.

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Interesting. I just ran some calcs. If your ITM is 35%, you would expect to go 22 OOTM every 13,059 games, which is probably less than Raptor has played.

Actually at 40% ITM it would be expected every 76,000 games and if you have played as many games as Raptor has played 22 could reasonably just be bad luck and not tilt.

My worst is 15. That was the first time I tried 4 tabling and I know I made a bunch of mistakes.

[/ QUOTE ]

to be honest, a lot of you have been talking about how its a combination of bad play AND bad variance. well, as for the bad variance.. micro gives some numbers that should help people see how easy it CAN be to have a streak like that. now, most of you probably havent played 13,059 games, and a lot of you are probably above 35% itm. however, 13k+ sngs isnt a whole lot more than i have actually played, and i may have even played more lifetime.

as for bad play? maybe. however, i have a VERY low tilt factor in sngs. if i DO go on tilt, it is by putting myself in MARGINAL +ev spots instead of VERY +ev spots. i dont find myself EVER making bad calls. period. i just simply dont call bad, which is the BIGGEST leak of sng players. when i push that 46 from utg on the bubble at 200-400 when im chip leader, and button has 200 chips, and BB wakes up with KK, is that a leak when i lose? no.


[/ QUOTE ]

Its acceptablet to push 46 UTG when chip leader. Is this okay if you're 4 or 5 way and its somewaht passive and your UTG?

[draw2aflush]

OK SHORT AND SWEET [censored] YOU GUYS IS THAT MORE INTERESTING IS 47.6% ITM THAT CRAZY FOR YOU LOSERS WHO ARE RESPONDING TO MY RESPONSE I GUESS SO LIKE I SAID I AM NOT BRAGGING WHO GIVES A [censored] I WAS WONDERING IF THE POSTER GETS MORE 1STs THAN 2NDs AND 3rds THATS ALL SIMPLE WAS NOT TRYING TO BOOST MYSELF IT WAS A HONEST POST AND REALLY IF THIS IS THE [censored] YOU GET WHEN POSTING THIS IS A [censored] WASTE OF TIME

[1C5]

http://www.fatznew.com/Pictures/Cry%20Baby%202-sized.jpg

[Blarg]

Heh...what?

[draw2aflush]

LOL HOW DID U GET MY PIC? R U A STALKER

[chuddo]

"nh james joyce" ---nice

i had a streak of "i can't beat a 3-outer" where i went out in 4th or 5th 9 straight tourneys to all-in preflop two and three-outers.

it made me question if i had unknowingly done something completely terrible (i.e. spit on a grandma, punted a kitten) to cause me to have such terrible karma and luck.

thankfully now that has ended, and hopefully i can start managing to win at least half of these 60/40 situations i can't seem to master lately.

[Blarg]

That's what I'm having. In my last 10 ITM's, only one was a first. I'm losing almost every confrontation. Bah!

[raptor517]

wow, i just went 18 ootm in a row. this is certainly an interesting day. i finally figured it out. its friday the 13th. thats why i cant win anything. empire/eurobet rigged my accounts because its a haunted day. it all makes sense now. sigh. holla

[Iamafish]

Thats one reason I chose not to play today /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
wow, i just went 18 ootm in a row. this is certainly an interesting day. i finally figured it out. its friday the 13th. thats why i cant win anything. empire/eurobet rigged my accounts because its a haunted day. it all makes sense now. sigh. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't know what your talking about, I've already paid for the computer and video cards I ordered in 12 SNGs today /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Big Limpin']

[ QUOTE ]
sorry dude, big limin was sayin last night that there is no way a winning player could drop more than 30 buy-ins in 100 tourneys w/out playing badly in the process...

me and you have both had some horrendous runs over the last week or two (though mine a bit more spread out than this hotness)...lets hope he's wrong.


keep yer head up man, you'll pull out of it.


Andre

[/ QUOTE ]

He suspects that 12 tabling may throw a fly in this ointment

[Blarg]

[ QUOTE ]
wow, i just went 18 ootm in a row. this is certainly an interesting day. i finally figured it out. its friday the 13th. thats why i cant win anything. empire/eurobet rigged my accounts because its a haunted day. it all makes sense now. sigh. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Gah, better luck, bro.

I just got one ITM in my last 11 today, too. Getting called with almost everything imaginable, and never seen so many last card flushes in my life. Seems any suited, any connectors, and any broadway or ace are calling, and almost always winning, usually coming from behind.

The only comfort is I feel better about any ideas I might have had that the game is getting much more difficult. If I'm going to get called and beaten, I'd rather it be by absolute garbage than anything.

[Blarg]

LOL. Two out of the last three, I go all-in with a pair and get called by AA, and the flop comes up Axx.

Sometimes it's just not meant to be!

[tminus]

"If 4 in a row out of the money throws you off all that much, something wrong is going on. "

this would be true if we we all had the same temperment and experiences but we dont so i think you're being a bit presumptous

[curtains]

Well something is going wrong if you want to live a normal healthy existance and play sit and go's, yet still get bothered by a 4 in a row OTM streak.

[raptor517]

wow, if 4 bothered me, i dont think i would be currently living. i go at least 4 ootms like 10 times a day. holla

[Blarg]

No, I think a certain temperament is actually necessary to play poker successfully. Many things in life require a certain temperament if you're going to have optimum or even adequate achievement; there's nothing special about poker in that way and nothing presumptuous about me for saying it holds true for poker, too.

If you don't have the kind of temperament that can withstand really brutally bad swings and bad luck, or at least moderate versions of the same, your game will almost certainly be adversely affected while you're playing unless you have truly superior skills. Alternatively, like you by your admission, you can just stop playing if things don't immediately go your way, but then you will be unable to rack up anything more than a tiny amount of playtime.

An even remotely serious poker player needs to be able to play through the bad times, not be forced to choose between playing while either on tilt or having a miserable time, or, on the other hand, quitting outright for the day if things don't immediately go their way. Losing four in a row is about as close to meaningless as you're going to get.

I don't know you or need to in order to make a statement about what poker demands from its players. You've merely stated your level of tolerance of losses and/or swings in poker, and it seems a fair statement to say that that tolerance level is both pretty darn low and well short of ideal for a poker player.

That's not a stirring indictment of you or an attack on you, neither of which I have the slightest interest in making. So don't take it that way.

*EDIT* Yeah, what they said.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
You haven't played poker long enough if you haven't had >20 game loss. My worse is 24.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's not get silly now.

My worst is 14, btw. Felt like the inner circles of hell, 20+ would cost me a monitor.

[raptor517]

HES BACK! oh goody, now i get someone else to bi*** to about losing. yay. 14? god you must be the luckiest person in the world. yea before yesterday, 14-15 was about my worst. now i have 2 that are worse. i love poker. holla

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
You haven't played poker long enough if you haven't had >20 game loss. My worse is 24.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting...I believe this is the highest OOTM streak Giga has reported as well.

/images/graemlins/wink.gif

Yugoslav

[AleoMagus]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't take a string of events out of several thousands sitngos and then afterwards calculate how unlikely this string of events was.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm... yes you can.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised that you as somebody with excellent knowledge of statistics make it seem like you could do that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, there is a simple explanation for why I did this... because you can.

p(A|X) =(p(X|A)*p(A))/(p(X|A)*p(A) + p(X|~A)*p(~A))


Regards
Brad S

[AleoMagus]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Last night I played ten tournaments, and look at my finishes:

3
7
6
4
8
9
7
2
7
4

I calculated that I would have a run like that once every ten BILLION hands (.10 * .10 * .10 * .10 * .10 * .10 * .10 * .10 * .10 * .10). Tell me that Party Poker isn't rigged.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



LMAO

[/ QUOTE ]

Please assure me that you guys see why this reasoning is different than what I am suggesting.

Funny I suppose, in a Douglas Adams sort of way... but then again... I always hated Douglas Adams.

Regards
Brad S

[AleoMagus]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting. I just ran some calcs. If your ITM is 35%, you would expect to go 22 OOTM every 13,059 games, which is probably less than Raptor has played.

Actually at 40% ITM it would be expected every 76,000 games and if you have played as many games as Raptor has played 22 could reasonably just be bad luck and not tilt.


[/ QUOTE ]

Valid points. I agree, and probably didn't make this clear enough in my original post. I suppose I was just more dismayed by the string of posts which followed also claiming some fairly bizzare bad luck streaks.

Playing the big stakes where you probably don't get huge ITM values and multi tabling like a madman is definitely going to make bigger OTM streaks probable.

Regards
Brad S

[Madd]

Yes, of course, according to Bayes you can calculate some probabilities like your likelihood to finish 4th in a random sitngo.
However, what I meant and what jcm4ccc put funnier, conclusions like "it only happens once every 1/2 million times that I place 4th seven times in a row, therefore I have to look for another explanation than pure chance" have no merit.
There are a lot of possible strings of "bad" events (# of lost HU duels in a row, # of cracked AA in a row, etc.). The chance that one unlikely string of bad events happens in a series of thousands of sitngos isn't remote at all.

Best,
Madd

[astarck]

If you have a lot of sngs recorded at a single level (enough to be considered long term) and are trying to figure out the odds of finishing in certain spots, would it be correct to use your data for finishes, and not the implied 10% for each position?

And if you are calculating for the average player, it would be correct to assume 10%?

[tminus]

You're absolutely right Blarq. My low tolerance for losing is certainly indicative of me doing something "wrong" because we all follow the same learning curve, we all play for same reasons, with the same lifestyle, and the same time constraints. So I certainly fall outside of your "ideal" poker player and should quit playing. Someday maybe I can become a superior player too and play around the clock regardless of the outcome.

lighten up a bit pal

[raptor517]

i pretty much play around the clock regardless of the outcome. i really hate losing, but its part of the game, so i guess ya get used to it. holla

[pergesu]

I was running just fine until you posted this thread. Now I've got a lovely 13 OOTM streak. Blow me.

[kamrann]

Okay, first off I just wanna say that it's always a good idea to take a look at your game when you're running bad. You could be playing worse and it can't be a bad idea to consider it. But these rules like "If a X% ITM/ROI player goes Y games OOTM/drops Y buyins in Z games, he's playing badly" are just rubbish. Sure as I've said above it may mean its more likely their game has gone off, but it doesn't mean it must've.

Now, I'm no stats whizz, but some of the things in this thread are not so much wrong as just totally meaningless. Yes, if you played 22 games with an ITM of 36% the chances of OOTM in all of them are 1/18367. So what? What matters is, given an ITM of X, if you played Y tournaments, whats the chances that you would hit a run of Z OOTM? Now, I skipped most of my stats classes at college/uni, so I cant remember if this is a binomial distribution problem or something else, or anyway how the hell to solve it regardless. So I just simulated it to get some (close) approximations. The numbers in the tables are percentage probabilites. The second table is smaller cos I got bored.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
ITM: 36%
Streak Length
SNGs 500 1000 2000 5000 10000 15000
10 88 99 100 100 100 100
14 29 51 75 97 100 100
18 5.5 11 20.5 44 69 83
22 1 1.8 3.8 9.5 18 25
26 0.15 0.31 0.65 1.6 3.1 4.6

ITM: 40%
Streak Length
SNGs 500 1000 5000 10000
10 70 91 100 100
14 14 27 79 96
18 2 3.9 18 33
22 0.24 0.53 2.7 5.4
26 0.03 0.07 0.35 0.65
</pre><hr />

Okay, so Raptor didn't say what his ITM is. Assuming 36%, and since he's played a bit less than 13000 SNGs, that would be about a 20% chance of him having that 22 OOTM streak. Or to put it another way, if 5 different 36% ITM players played that many tournaments, one of the five would be expected to have such a streak, without tilting.

Now, if his ITM is 40%, sure it's a fair bit different, but still nowhere near as unlikely as some have been suggesting, definitely not sufficiently so to imply that his game must have gone bad. But, like I said above, better to always consider that it might have, than fall back on statistics and just assume you're one of the unlucky ones that caught a worse than expected streak.

[Blarg]

[ QUOTE ]
You're absolutely right Blarq. My low tolerance for losing is certainly indicative of me doing something "wrong" because we all follow the same learning curve, we all play for same reasons, with the same lifestyle, and the same time constraints. So I certainly fall outside of your "ideal" poker player and should quit playing. Someday maybe I can become a superior player too and play around the clock regardless of the outcome.

lighten up a bit pal

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, it looks like you post the same way you play. You're stubborn as a mule and not only is common sense not good enough for you, when raptor and Daliman agree with me and disagree with you, both of whom are far better players than either of us are now and very likely ever will be, still, all you want to do is argue instead of catching a clue. Can't you see that there is something wrong with this picture?

Seriously, your temperament is very brittle and stubborn. You very much need to take your own advice about lightening up, and get control of your ego so you stop arguing just to argue. I can definitely see why you can't play more than four in a row OTM without having it affect your game.

Quitting playing poker might not even be a bad idea, because you not only don't have the right personality to play it, you don't even have the right personality to talk about it.

[tminus]

Look man, you clearly missed my first point
You know that I'm relatively new at this game and come here for advice. So the best you can come up with when I say I like to take a break after 4 losing games is that there's something wrong with me? Im sure if you took a good honest look behind this statement you'll see that it's not at all constructive.

[Blarg]

You're taking it too deep. Having a less than optimum mindset for poker, which probably most of us have by the way, doesn't mean there's something wrong with you in any serious way; how would I know and why would I care? I'm just talking about poker.

And it doesn't mean you're doomed to be a bad poker player or anything. It just means you have an unnecessary extra obstacle to conquer that's going to make things harder for you -- perhaps unrealistic expectations, or a short temper or something, or both. Forget about real life, I'm no expert in that; I'm just saying for poker, that's not good.

Look at raptor, a hugely successful SNG player, talking about 22 OTM in a row, and others with really high OTM numbers too. That should put your four in a row OTM into some perspective, and so should his attitude -- he's just going to keep on playing. Somewhere between quitting almost immediately and being able to play through anything, there's got to be a happy medium for you that's better than where you are now. And if there isn't, that's a leak in your game that you need to fix.

[AleoMagus]

[ QUOTE ]
rules like "If a X% ITM/ROI player goes Y games OOTM/drops Y buyins in Z games, he's playing badly" are just rubbish. Sure as I've said above it may mean its more likely their game has gone off, but it doesn't mean it must've.


[/ QUOTE ]

I am pretty much the only one here that is saying anything like this, so you must be talking about me. Well, EXCEPT for the fact that I never said that it MUST mean anything, and I never voiced it as any kind of rule. For example:

[ QUOTE ]
Don't get me wrong, it certainly is possible that it was just due to chance

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
As I said, it's possible it's just an anomaly

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Considering the amount some of you play, I guess this might even be expected in the course of a couple years play

[/ QUOTE ]

So yeah, I agree that the rule you gave is 'just rubbish'.

The funny part is, I didn't want to write a huge long treatise on the kinds of calculations I would actually do if I was inclined to figure out the chances so I just put in a simple calc to try to make what I was saying seem intuitive. Well, I guess that backfired in a big way because I'd wager big money that if I just said something like "Big OTM streaks are often an indication of poor judgement due to tilting near the end" I would not have met with much disagreement at all. In fact, it seems that all who are disagreeing with me are still conceeding this point.

Your overall ITM is in fact dependent on the times when you do tilt, execrise poor judgement, etc...
This means that even with a low ITM, long OTM streaks still indicate poor play to a much greater degree of certainty than you describe. Optimal play ALL the time, after all might net a player a much higher than 36% ITM if he could somehow sustain this level of play in EVERY SNG. Of course we cannot do this, and in that sense, even though we may be tilting (however slightly), it may make sense to still call this variance, as SNG variance does in a way take tilt into account.

All that I am trying to say is we should be cautious about blinly assuming that we have played no part in our misfortune, when it's likey we have. You may think that "ITS NOT THAT LIKELY" and I guess what qualifies as 'that likely' or 'that unlikey' is a subjective decision for you to make. I personally err on the side of caution and like to question my play when I lose frequently.

Sigh
Brad S

[Scuba Chuck]

Hey, Aleo. What do you think of the mad craze to 12-table or 16-table like raptor? Gone are the dinosaurs who played the game for the purity (Bozeman)? - One game at a time.

I too am falling victim to this craze. At this stage, I think I could only single table high stakes games.

Scuba

[Blarg]

Are you wondering if it's having a negative effect on your profitability per table beyond what's expected when adding tables?

[kamrann]

Oh man, I knew there was a reason I didn't post much on this board. Aleo, someone else further up the thread posted such a rule, and I also saw a similar view on another thread a day or two ago. I wasn't referring to you at all at that point (the only time I was was when questioning how meaningful the 1/18000 number was).

For what it's worth, I agree 100% with everything you just said above, in particular that it's always best to consider that you may be playing badly, as I tried to make as clear as possible at the start and end of my original post. I just wanted to try to clarify the odds of such streaks a little, since some people were clearly interpreting your numbers in the wrong way.

[Nottom]

All this talk of losing streak made me go pull out my streaks spreadsheet and watch my mythical Excel player play thousands of SNGs.

If you've never played with this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1711139&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;s b=5&amp;o=&amp;vc=1) in Excel or have a strong grasp of statistics its probably hard for you to really accept what sort of losing streaks are possible for a winning player.

[astarck]

This is the unluckiest thread on the face of 2+2.

Immediately after reading it I'm OOTM in 26 of my last 30. With 2 seperate streaks of 10 OOTM's making up most of it.

*EDIT* - Not really any major bad plays, just horrible, horrible timing. For example, get on the bubble and I get JJ...only to be up against KK. Another favorite is the all in on the bubble with QQ getting called by 43o...a lovely flop of 567 falls.

[Blarg]

LOL, I had a huge run of weird things like that in this last week.

[DasLeben]

I've gotten bubbled a few times this week by BBs waking up with kings when I push into them with trash. Someone needs to tell them to quit calling with those.

[astarck]

My profit graph now looks like I'm descending off of Mt. Everest. Essentially straight down with a few minor blips every so often.

[UsedToBeARock]

Only have about 300, but my worst is 8 ootm. Ironically, my best is 8 itm.