Difficult bubble AK hand

[Scuba Chuck]

#Game No : 2041237627
***** Hand History for Game 2041237627 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:12160746 Level:7 Blinds(200/400) - Friday, May 13, 01:05:25 EDT 2005
Table Table 13839 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 4: gh9802 ( $4920 )
Seat 6: captmarko ( $295 )
Seat 8: SCUBA CHUCK ( $1150 )
Seat 10: Wurmtoken ( $1635 )
Trny:12160746 Level:7
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to SCUBA CHUCK [ Jc 7c ]
SCUBA CHUCK folds.
Wurmtoken folds.
>You have options at Table 14887 Table!.
gh9802 folds.
captmarko does not show cards.
captmarko wins 495 chips
Game #2041238974 starts.

#Game No : 2041238974
***** Hand History for Game 2041238974 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:12160746 Level:7 Blinds(200/400) - Friday, May 13, 01:05:41 EDT 2005
Table Table 13839 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 4: gh9802 ( $4720 )
Seat 6: captmarko ( $495 )
Seat 8: SCUBA CHUCK ( $1150 )
Seat 10: Wurmtoken ( $1635 )
Trny:12160746 Level:7
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to SCUBA CHUCK [ Ac Kd ]
Wurmtoken folds.
gh9802 is all-In [4720]
captmarko folds.
SCUBA CHUCK is all-In [750]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qh, Td, 9c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8h ]
** Dealing River ** [ Tc ]
>You have options at Table 14887 Table!.
SCUBA CHUCK shows [ Ac, Kd ] a pair of tens.
gh9802 shows [ 6s, Qd ] two pairs, queens and tens.
gh9802 wins 3570 chips from side pot #1 with two pairs, queens and tens.
gh9802 wins 2500 chips from the main pot with two pairs, queens and tens.
SCUBA CHUCK finished in fourth place.
SCUBA CHUCK has left the table.
Game #2041240442 starts.

<font color="blue"> I showed the first hand for a reason...

Pretty sure this is autocall.
</font>

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

I showed the first hand for a reason...

[/ QUOTE ]

To demonstrate that you were up against opponents who would knowingly keep the shorty alive, thus making folding here because of the shorty poor? Interesting thinking. I think it's probably an autocall with AK even without taking that into account, but especially because of that detail.

[bluefeet]

bummer scuba.

on the surface it sure looks like a no-brainer, but the other guy all-in next hand, i can appreciate your second guessing when it didn't hold up.

if it makes you feel any better......you would push when it got to you? would it break your heart if you got called?

bad break, good push. no ITM, but it was probably the best opportunity you'd seen to get back in the hunt for 1st/2nd.

[bluefeet]

...my bad (blinds past him next), i was reading it backward

what's up w/ that fold in the 1st?! sure looks fishy.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
what's up w/ that fold in the 1st?!

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a $22, I didn't think these guys were that smart. If I had any incling at all that villain might do that I would have called on hand 1.

[The Yugoslavian]

I like folding in both cases (moreso in the second case).

http://usera.imagecave.com/BSwing23/Untitled-2.jpg

Yugoslav

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I like folding in both cases (moreso in the second case).


[/ QUOTE ]

You make me want to do ICM on this. Ah, I will use Eastie's tool.

Using the maniacal setting (which is precisely right) it's +4.7% to call.

I know it's a consideration to fold, but really, I just don't think you can here.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like folding in both cases (moreso in the second case).


[/ QUOTE ]

You make me want to do ICM on this. Ah, I will use Eastie's tool.

Using the maniacal setting (which is precisely right) it's +4.7% to call.

I know it's a consideration to fold, but really, I just don't think you can here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm....yeah...umm....I'm going to have to....disagree with you here.....yeah.

I just noticed the blinds are 200/400 in the second one (thought originally they were 150/300)....not sure it actually changes my answer though. If the big stack was being *very* aggro and I could put him on a wide range here (not necessarily the case) then I guess I'd call....but it's certainly not an 'autocall' to me at least.

Yugoslav

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
I like folding in both cases (moreso in the second case).

[/ QUOTE ]

????

What reason can there be that makes the second a better fold than the first?

EDIT: Ah. Forgot to take into account that even in the first case Scuba cashes if both bust. Regardless, AKo is plenty of hand and there's an excellent chance they let this guy live through the blinds again.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I like folding in both cases (moreso in the second case).



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You make me want to do ICM on this. Ah, I will use Eastie's tool.

Using the maniacal setting (which is precisely right) it's +4.7% to call.

I know it's a consideration to fold, but really, I just don't think you can here.


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Umm....yeah...umm....I'm going to have to....disagree with you here.....yeah.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a good thing you're not playing any poker right now.
Scuba

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like folding in both cases (moreso in the second case).

[/ QUOTE ]

????

What reason can there be that makes the second a better fold than the first?

[/ QUOTE ]

B/c against some opponents a push in the first case is profitable. In the latter calling is not very profitable no matter who the opponent is.

Yugoslav

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I like folding in both cases (moreso in the second case).


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????

What reason can there be that makes the second a better fold than the first?


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B/c against some opponents a push in the first case is profitable. In the latter calling is not very profitable no matter who the opponent is.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should go ask your mentor. This might be an interesting study hand for him.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like folding in both cases (moreso in the second case).


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????

What reason can there be that makes the second a better fold than the first?


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



B/c against some opponents a push in the first case is profitable. In the latter calling is not very profitable no matter who the opponent is.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should go ask your mentor. This might be an interesting study hand for him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would he need to study this?

Yugoslav
PS Also, if this is a 'difficult' hand...then why did you say you thought it was an 'autocall'....having it both ways confuses me /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[SuitedSixes]

I don't get the question. It really looks like a bad beat post all dressed up. You, essentially, had 3rd place wrapped up if you folded. You felt like you were ahead with AK with a great chance to gun for 1st or 2nd, so you called. You were ahead but you lost. Bad beat. What's the point? Do you want us to say, "Way to go being aggressive! Way to play for first!" You can't be a luckbox your whole life.

[ilya]

I don't think this is difficult at all. I think this is a clear call. It may be a slight loser according to ICM, but in this situation ICM underestimates your equity when you win and overestimates your equity when you fold.

[The Yugoslavian]

Yeah, I think I call here after seeing that the blinds went up to 200/400 (when I first looked at the hands I missed this and thought it was still at 150/300).

With them at 150/300 I like folding better. Anyway, I think it's close in *either* situation....

I'm not sure what Scuba is smoking in this thread.

Yugoslav

[Scuba Chuck]

Your blinds are wrong in your Eastbay tool.

[Scuba Chuck]

SS, I don't post badbeats (unless it's within someon else's bad beat post). I was planning on posting this hand win or lose. I enjoy posting hands that come out of interesting scenarios. If you want to bitch that it's a bad beat post, I can understand. GL at the games.

[SuitedSixes]

I agree with your call. There are two types of players in this position, those who are willing to accept third place and those who want to play for 1st or 2nd. Neither is wrong, you just defined which one you are.

If I am the big stack here, I am pushing with any two, and I get annoyed by the player who calls me with AK and gives away his $18, but all he's doing is playing the style that fits his needs and personality.

[Degen]

maybe i'm wrong but i'm always calling AK all ins on the bubble...whether it puts me in or them, whatever...its a monster hand against a lot of pushes, as most ppl are stealing w/ any ace late.

Andre

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
maybe i'm wrong but i'm always calling AK all ins on the bubble...whether it puts me in or them, whatever...its a monster hand against a lot of pushes, as most ppl are stealing w/ any ace late.

Andre

[/ QUOTE ]

Degen this is advice is way too generalized. I have folded AK many times on the bubble and there was no doubt that it was easily correct in many of these cases.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
Umm....yeah...umm....I'm going to have to....disagree with you here.....yeah.


[/ QUOTE ]

Umm.....yeah......I'm going to need you to come in on Saturday

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Your blinds are wrong in your Eastbay tool.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes...I acknowledged that. This is to show that at the blinds I somehow thought the hand original was played at....my reasoning wasn't off at all.

In 200/400 blinds I agree you need to call with AK...but it is somewhat close depending on what range you put your opponent on.

So yes, my first reaction was wrong....hopefully when I get back to the table I will notice the actual blind level, /images/graemlins/blush.gif.

Yugoslav