KK pre-flop against 100XBB re-raise

[FreakDaddy]

I posted a big slick pre-flop 'clear' fold situation poll a week ago and was a bit suprised by the poll results. Here's another situation that I think is 'clear' and I'd like to post a poll and begin some dicsussion as I think this will be an informative learning experience for us all... I hope. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

You're playing .50/1 No limit full ring. You pick up red kings UTG and raise 3xBB. You are then re-raised from LP by a 'typical' party poker player to 100xBB. What's your play?

Note: Sorry for the somewhat vague scenario, but this is how the first question was raised. I'm creating this poll because I've seen similar questions like this asked several times on this forum.

[TrailofTears]

Can I request that you raise to more than 3xBB to start. Make it at least 4, if not 5xBB from UTG. I would call with just about any two behind that raise.

-T

p.s. I'm picking nits, yes, but good ones.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
Can I request that you raise to more than 3xBB to start. Make it at least 4, if not 5xBB from UTG. I would call with just about any two behind that raise.

-T

p.s. I'm picking nits, yes, but good ones.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to jump on the nit train and request that the title be changed to 100bb raise.

I'm surprised that people voted call!!!

Are they trying to hit a set or something? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Ghazban]

Stack sizes?

[TrailofTears]

Oh, and stack sizes. And table images. And the color of the kings (I'm superstitious). At least two out of three of these things are important to me.

-T

[numb3rs]

1 vs AA we're ~20%
2 vs AK we're ~70%
3 vs an underpair we're ~80%
4 vs a bluff we're ~75%

estimate chance of holdings: (this is the tough part)
1 - 40% (this might be generous)
2 - 20% (reasonable but less likely as we have the Ks)
3 - 30% (most probable if he doesn't have AA)
4 - 10% (minimum of 10% here)

win% = .4*.2 + .2*.7 + .3*.8 + .1*.75
= 53.5%

easy call/push.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
Can I request that you raise to more than 3xBB to start. Make it at least 4, if not 5xBB from UTG. I would call with just about any two behind that raise.

-T

p.s. I'm picking nits, yes, but good ones.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is from a specific posters hand. If it was 4xBB raise and the same scenario happened, is it going to change your answer?

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and stack sizes. And table images. And the color of the kings (I'm superstitious). At least two out of three of these things are important to me.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]

Reads, flow of the table, other players yet to act behind raise, and many more things could be added of course. The point of this hand is really that in THIS particular scenario, particulars are not that important. I hope we can all elucidate on that later.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
Stack sizes?

[/ QUOTE ]

While stack sizes matter in most scenarios, please explain why it matters here? I don't think it does. Unless of course you are contemplating a call, then PERHAPS this could come into play.

[FreakDaddy]

Thanks for the numbers post. I hope everyone reads it.

[TrailofTears]

Okay, well if there are zero reads, then we likely just sat down and therefore the raise puts hero all-in. This eliminates two of our three options. This is why we need to know stack sizes, etc. There ARE important pieces of information lacking from this example, and they ARE available for any hand. Sorry to nitpick, but I like to know these things before making decisions.

-T

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, well if there are zero reads, then we likely just sat down and therefore the raise puts hero all-in. This eliminates two of our three options. This is why we need to know stack sizes, etc. There ARE important pieces of information lacking from this example, and they ARE available for any hand. Sorry to nitpick, but I like to know these things before making decisions.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]

If hero had any other hand then KK, I would agree with you. I would always want more detail. Can you explain what difference it's going to make whether hero is set all-in on this hand or not? I really don't think it matters. At least not for the point I'm going to eventually make. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

For arguments sake though, the phrasing of the question and poll indicates that hero is not set all-in.

[wtfsvi]

I can't see the results, 'cause I can't vote, 'cause we don't know anything. There's no context.

It's like, I think I'll make a poll:

What does the word bar mean if a typical person says it?

A: Candy bar B: pub-counter-thingy (or just the pub-thingy) C: Something like shut/barricade D: One of the probably many other things you foreign people mean when you say that word

Haha, actually; I'm just being silly. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Stack sizes?

[/ QUOTE ]

While stack sizes matter in most scenarios, please explain why it matters here? I don't think it does. Unless of course you are contemplating a call, then PERHAPS this could come into play.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we only have 20xBB in our stack, its an easy call. If we both have over 100,000xBB, we have many options. Even if we both have 500xBB, there are more options (stop and go for one).

[FreakDaddy]

Create a pre-flop scenario that justifies folding Kings. I'm all ears. Baring an obvious tell from a player you have experience with, I personally can't see a scenario. That being said, details are not very important in this hand.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Stack sizes?

[/ QUOTE ]

While stack sizes matter in most scenarios, please explain why it matters here? I don't think it does. Unless of course you are contemplating a call, then PERHAPS this could come into play.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we only have 20xBB in our stack, its an easy call. If we both have over 100,000xBB, we have many options. Even if we both have 500xBB, there are more options (stop and go for one).

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're going to make this call based on your expected win/loss variance? Then your playing above your bankroll imo.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Stack sizes?

[/ QUOTE ]

While stack sizes matter in most scenarios, please explain why it matters here? I don't think it does. Unless of course you are contemplating a call, then PERHAPS this could come into play.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we only have 20xBB in our stack, its an easy call. If we both have over 100,000xBB, we have many options. Even if we both have 500xBB, there are more options (stop and go for one).

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're going to make this call based on your expected win/loss variance? Then your playing above your bankroll imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how you got that from my post.

[wtfsvi]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar på:</font><hr />
Create a pre-flop scenario that justifies folding Kings. I'm all ears.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tighty who raises 1% preflop pushes all in for 20.000 BB.

But really. There are scenarios where you have to let go of KK preflop.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
Create a pre-flop scenario that justifies folding Kings. I'm all ears. Baring an obvious tell from a player you have experience with, I personally can't see a scenario. That being said, details are not very important in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I raise UTG, tight unimaginative player that I have played many hands with reraises. I make a third raise that does not pot commit me and he pushes. This laydown is trivial.

Try this thread too: linky (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2358514&amp;page=1&amp;view=colla psed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1)

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and stack sizes. And table images. And the color of the kings (I'm superstitious). At least two out of three of these things are important to me.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]
Reads, flow of the table, other players yet to act behind raise, and many more things could be added of course. The point of this hand is really that in THIS particular scenario, particulars are not that important. I hope we can all elucidate on that later.

[/ QUOTE ]


Hey FD, just noticed the change in title. Sweeeet! /images/graemlins/cool.gif

I guess the answer to all of Trail's questions are: let's discuss it. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Regardless, we're in a push or fold situation. I don't care if the stack sizes are 10k per person and the bb is 1/10000th of the stacks... I don't think it's worth a call to try to hit your set. There's going to be better opportunities to get your cash in later, and they guy may be able to avoid paying you if you hit your set.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, well if there are zero reads, then we likely just sat down and therefore the raise puts hero all-in. This eliminates two of our three options. This is why we need to know stack sizes, etc. There ARE important pieces of information lacking from this example, and they ARE available for any hand. Sorry to nitpick, but I like to know these things before making decisions.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]

Improvise, dude.

Give us some scenarios, what you would do and how the different scenarios could change your answer and why.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Stack sizes?

[/ QUOTE ]

While stack sizes matter in most scenarios, please explain why it matters here? I don't think it does. Unless of course you are contemplating a call, then PERHAPS this could come into play.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we only have 20xBB in our stack, its an easy call. If we both have over 100,000xBB, we have many options. Even if we both have 500xBB, there are more options (stop and go for one).

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm very interested in hearing how you would play this with a 500xbb stack. I've faced this kind of situation before and felt a little uncomfortable with it.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Stack sizes?

[/ QUOTE ]

While stack sizes matter in most scenarios, please explain why it matters here? I don't think it does. Unless of course you are contemplating a call, then PERHAPS this could come into play.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we only have 20xBB in our stack, its an easy call. If we both have over 100,000xBB, we have many options. Even if we both have 500xBB, there are more options (stop and go for one).

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're going to make this call based on your expected win/loss variance? Then your playing above your bankroll imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how you got that from my post.

[/ QUOTE ]

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
Create a pre-flop scenario that justifies folding Kings. I'm all ears. Baring an obvious tell from a player you have experience with, I personally can't see a scenario. That being said, details are not very important in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice usage of the word "bar". /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Guys, lighten up a bit, eh? We're talking about a typical party table, so hero and villain may have up to 250xbb stacks or 300, but will likely be less.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Stack sizes?

[/ QUOTE ]

While stack sizes matter in most scenarios, please explain why it matters here? I don't think it does. Unless of course you are contemplating a call, then PERHAPS this could come into play.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we only have 20xBB in our stack, its an easy call. If we both have over 100,000xBB, we have many options. Even if we both have 500xBB, there are more options (stop and go for one).

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're going to make this call based on your expected win/loss variance? Then your playing above your bankroll imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how you got that from my post.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was assuming larger stack sizes may make you fold. Someone else posted a comments like this, so I made an assumption. Regardless, this is party poker 100NL. Stack sizes are not over 2x buy-in for this scenario.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Create a pre-flop scenario that justifies folding Kings. I'm all ears.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tighty who raises 1% preflop pushes all in for 20.000 BB.

But really. There are scenarios where you have to let go of KK preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Still don't see it. If you have a tight player who almost never raises and then goes all-in... well, you have a fairly stupid player on your hands for one. None the less, that's still a call to me.

Every hand in my opinion has situations that should be folded pre-flop with the exception of AA and KK. And KK does have some extremely remote scenarios where it should be folded, but I'd ONLY do that in live play because I'd have to have an extremely solid tell combined with a good read.

[wtfsvi]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar på:</font><hr />

If you have a tight player who almost never raises and then goes all-in... well, you have a fairly stupid player on your hands for one. None the less, that's still a call to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you call a 20.000 BB reraise from a tight player who almost never raises preflop with KK, then you are the stupid player. And if he knows you'll call if you have KK, his play is nothing short of perfect.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If you have a tight player who almost never raises and then goes all-in... well, you have a fairly stupid player on your hands for one. None the less, that's still a call to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you call a 20.000 BB reraise from a tight player who almost never raises preflop with KK, then you are the stupid player. And if he knows you'll call if you have KK, his play is nothing short of perfect.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mind if I get your username on party skins? Because I know how to get you to fold.

I have no problem with people who like to play the AA guessing game... really. It only makes me money. Yet if you run into a scenario where a tight player, who never almost never raises, goes all-in or raises 20xBB, then that player is throwing away money because everyone should fold at the table, except me of course when I have KK.

[wtfsvi]

I'm not saying 20BB. I'm saying, trying to say at least, twenty thousand big blinds. Just to "make" your scenario. So yes. If you sit at my table with a 20.000BB-stack and I have you covered, you can get me to fold any hand but AA as long as you don't get out of line with them pushes.

The name is wtfsvi. I'm going to bed now though, sadly. I'll catch up on that some other time.

EDIT: I will be very probable to fold KK for 20BB too if I have a lot of hands on the person, and it seems he only raises AA-KK.

[ryanghall]

With a 500x BB stack I would fold my KK in a split-second.

[ryanghall]

AA v KK is not nearly as rare as I think you believe it is.

There are many scenarios where you can fold KK preflop, especially vs good players.

[pk Wools]

you say "typical party player" bets 100XBB??? and you hold cowboys???
and u urself no more than 100XBB

this is the stuff dreams are made of... for the love of god push allin

[rikz]

I looked over my Poker Tracker stats for KK hands in which I played big pots to the river by getting all of my money in pre-flop (either betting or calling).

Most of my hands were Party Poker .25 NL. A few were .5 NL, but I don't think the level of play is much different, just the dollar values of the stacks.

Here is what I found.

Over the course of 45,113 hands, I had 15 hands with KK in which I was all-in preflop. In two of those hands, I had two others in the pot with me. In all other cases I was heads up.

Of those 17 Villains all-in with me preflop, here were their hands.

AA ---- 6 Villains -- 35.29%
AKo --- 3 Villains -- 17.65%
JJ ---- 2 Villains -- 11.76%
77 ---- 1 Villain --- 5.88%
AQo --- 1 Villain --- 5.88%
AQs --- 1 Villain --- 5.88%
QQ ---- 1 Villain --- 5.88%
QTs --- 1 Villain --- 5.88%
TT ---- 1 Villain --- 5.88%

I won 10 hands and lost 5 hands. My total $ for all hands was +$138.40.

So, without a read, I say push to scare off any other callers to make sure you get heads up with what you can expect is something other than AA about two thirds of the time. Once again, that would be without any read at Party Poker low stakes no-limit hold em.

I realize this is a very small sample size, but I wouldn't be surprised if others of you have similar hand histories. Note that I didn't count any KK hands in which I wasn't all-in preflop.

[thatpfunk]

This thread made my head hurt. Jesus.

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
Regardless, we're in a push or fold situation. I don't care if the stack sizes are 10k per person and the bb is 1/10000th of the stacks... I don't think it's worth a call to try to hit your set. There's going to be better opportunities to get your cash in later, and they guy may be able to avoid paying you if you hit your set.

[/ QUOTE ]

David, this makes no sense and you should know that.

[BZ_Zorro]

I care about moral superiority more than money.

You raised...some guy monster reraised/pushed...you gotta make a stand.

You can fold em like a ***** or be a man, you've got cowboys for chrissakes. Min reraise the chump if you can and show them they can't push you around.

You think John Wayne would have folded here? How bout Steven Segal? Not likely.

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
How bout Steven Segal?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your credibility as a poster = 0

This comment should cause an IP ban.

-T /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[FreakDaddy]

Thank you Albert. Those numbers are about what I would expect. I think that was very informative information! I need to look at my hand histories as well.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
AA v KK is not nearly as rare as I think you believe it is.

There are many scenarios where you can fold KK preflop, especially vs good players.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good them fold them. Fundamental theorm of poker by Mr. Sklansky states every mistake you make, I gain. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I've done my duty trying to explain why folding them is a mistake, but you guys know best.

[Gustavo]

i would like to add , from my experience , everytime someone pulled move of honor (coming from "not horrible" players with a full stack) after a reraise , 90% &gt; of the time was AA. Draw your own conclusions

[punter11235]

Sorry dont read previous post, I made simple mistake here.. I will edit in a moment

[punter11235]

Thank you for making a poll for this FreakDaddy.
Here is some math which doesnt pretend to be complete analysis, but should give

some insight to this problem. Suppose we are playing against villains who only go

allin with AA (because they know that we will call with KK) and fold otherwise...

of course we need to beat this strategy by always calling if we think that call is

100% action here.
Ok, so we are UTG and raise 3BB, suppose we are average player and our raising

hands are high PP + AK, here is the table with useful numbers (I think these

numbers are very good estimation, but there may be a mistake somewhere as I

calculated it all by myself)

our hand --------------ppb that villain have AA
AA - 13%------------0% (ok this oversimplification)
KK - 13%------------4.5%*
QQ - 13%------------4.5%
JJ - 13%------------4.5%
1010 - 13%------------4.5%
AK - 35%------------2%**

* and ** (these numbers should be ok)

Suppose we get one of our raising hand, here is our profit :
(X is stacksize)
13%*4*(95.5% *1.5BB -4.5%*3BB) + 13%(95.5%*1.5BB -4.5%*X) + 35%(98% *1.5BB - 2%*3BB) =
0.745BB - 0.07BB + 0.18BB - 0.0058X + 0.5145BB - 0.021BB =
1.35BB - 0.006X UFF

So if stacks are higher than 225BB strategy of going allin with AA and folding otherwise beats us (assuming all players at the table use it). Now this may be artifical example and I dont claim that anybody ever will use this strategy against us, but they may use strategies better that this (not so difficult) and lower this 225BB to 150 or sth... pls realize that BIG reraise (for example 225BB) should be enough to fold even having "cowboys"..

Best wishes

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AA v KK is not nearly as rare as I think you believe it is.

There are many scenarios where you can fold KK preflop, especially vs good players.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good them fold them. Fundamental theorm of poker by Mr. Sklansky states every mistake you make, I gain. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
Nonsense. Pushing without AA would lose a lot of money for you on average, and you should be more interested in that than getting to tell me I made a FTOP mistake by folding most of the time.

Let's do the math.
/images/graemlins/diamond.gif I'll have AA about 1/5 of the time when I raise UTG when you have rags. If you have Ax, I'll have AA about 1/7 of the time I raise UTG. If you have KK, I'll have AA about 1/3 of the time.
/images/graemlins/diamond.gif If you bluff me off KK instead of folding, you gain 4.5 BB, a tiny amount. By the FTOP accounting method, you might have made a 50 BB mistake by pushing, and then I made a slightly larger mistake by folding.
/images/graemlins/diamond.gif If you try to bluff me off AA, you'll lose over 60 BB. The exact amount depends on the quality of your hand. If you have Ax, you'll lose over 80 BB.

Does gaining 4.5 BB 4/5 of the time and losing 60 BB 1/5 of the time sound like a good deal to you?

Pushing when you don't have AA also leaves you exposed to the possibility that someone else will have AA, or will call you with KK, which is a disaster if you don't have AA.

Against someone who is obviously bluffing a lot, I don't try to make the most marginal calls. (I reserve big calls for people who bluff infrequently but who seem to be bluffing this time.) I fold, which encourages them to bluff more. On average, trying to bluff me is an expensive mistake, and I'm happy to encourage people to make mistakes like that.

This doesn't settle the question of whether it would be right to call a massive reraise with KK. It only says it would be a large mistake for the reraiser not to have AA, and if the reraiser is experienced and thoughtful he should know that.

[PinkSteel]

LOL. John Wayne and Steven Segal -- now THAT'S a pair of COWBOYS!

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]

Most of my hands were Party Poker .25 NL. A few were .5 NL, but I don't think the level of play is much different, just the dollar values of the stacks.
...
AA ---- 6 Villains -- 35.29%
AKo --- 3 Villains -- 17.65%
JJ ---- 2 Villains -- 11.76%
77 ---- 1 Villain --- 5.88%
AQo --- 1 Villain --- 5.88%
AQs --- 1 Villain --- 5.88%
QQ ---- 1 Villain --- 5.88%
QTs --- 1 Villain --- 5.88%
TT ---- 1 Villain --- 5.88%

I won 10 hands and lost 5 hands. My total $ for all hands was +$138.40.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's good to see some data, even though I don't think NL 25 is so similar to NL 100. Otherwise, there wouldn't be so many SSNL regulars who are grinding it out at NL 25.

I don't know what the multiway pots were. Against those 17 hands individually, you win

18.1% 6 times, 69.9% 3 times, 81.5% 2 times, 80.5% once, 71.8% once, 68.2% once, 81.9% once, 81.9% once, and 81.1% once.

That adds up to an average of 9.467 wins out of 17. That means you would be slightly ahead by calling, but the main reason you won so much was that you ran well.

How many of these involved stacks much smaller than 100 BB?

[pzhon]

I went through some of my KK hands where I was all-in preflop.

Here are the last 3 at NL 100:

/images/graemlins/diamond.gif I called an open push to 35 BB from someone who posted in MP. He had AA.
/images/graemlins/diamond.gif In a 100 pound game, I pushed for a full buy-in over a reraise and a call. The reraiser had AA.
/images/graemlins/diamond.gif I raised in EP, someone minreraised, the tricky BB pushed for 99 BB, and I called. The BB had AA.

As a result of these experiences, I haven't gotten all-in with KK in higher games. I'm going to wait to see people end up all-in with garbage against my AA before I start calling all-in or pushing with KK against unknown players.

Here are the last 3 at NL 25:

/images/graemlins/club.gif I put in the 4th raise with KK, and was called by a short stack (50 BB) with 88.
/images/graemlins/club.gif I had 50 BB and reraised, then called a call/push by a someone with TT.
/images/graemlins/club.gif I had 20 BB and pushed after a raise and a call. I was called by KJs and JTo.

Maybe this sample is too small, but in 3/3 cases at NL 100, I had KK versus AA. In 3/3 cases at NL 25, I had KK versus a worse hand or hands. I'm suspicious of the attempt to extrapolate from NL 25 to tougher games.