123 $33 stats and 10 redudant bubble hand questions

[Sponger15SB]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v641/Sponger15aa/Spongerstats.jpg


I have obviously had tons of problems in my first 123 SNGs. My bubble play has been absolutely horrible, so even if I make the money I am usually short stacked because I am too timid to push sometimes with a good sized stack. Also, I think I am calling wayyyy to many all ins on the bubble.

All of this leads to me not having a good sized stack when I get heads up, and of course its a huge uphill climb from there.

Also, party poker is rigged, and idiots suck out on me!

Seriously though, I have problems pushing with Ax on the bubble, what do you guys do in these situations? I am seriously confused on my bubble play at the moment, because things that allowed me to cruise to a 20-30% ROI at the $11's aren't pulling right now.

Anyways, hopefully this is all set up well to encourage some discussion and not for people to just look at my stats and tell me to [censored] off because they see the same thing 10x a day on these forums


Look at my next post for more information about these hands, this is just a guideline for you to remember them instead of scrolling back and forth to the hands...

[Sponger15SB]

<font color="blue"> Hand ONE </font>

Big Blind is t300 (4 handed)

Hero (t1860)
Button (t2545)
SB (t775)
BB (t2820)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif

<font color="red"> ----- </font>

<font color="blue"> Hand TWO </font>

Big Blind is t300 (4 handed)

Button (t2110)
SB (t1450)
BB (t2480)
Hero (t1960)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

<font color="red"> ----- </font>

<font color="blue"> Hand THREE </font>

Big Blind is t300 (4 handed)

SB (t2260)
BB (t1300)
UTG (t2480)
Hero (t1960)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Fold, Hero?

<font color="red"> ----- </font>

<font color="blue"> Hand FOUR </font>
Big Blind is t300 (4 handed)

BB (t2560)
UTG (t1300)
Button (t2480)
Hero (t1660)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Fold, Fold, Hero?

<font color="red"> ----- </font>

<font color="blue"> Hand FIVE </font>

Big Blind is t300 (4 handed)

SB (t1288)
BB (t4288)
Hero (t1095)
Button (t1329)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.


<font color="red"> ----- </font>

<font color="blue"> Hand SIX </font>

Big Blind is t200 (5 handed)

Hero (t1110)
SB (t800)
BB (t2805)
UTG (t980)
MP (t2305)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
Fold, Fold, Hero? <font color="red"> </font>

<font color="red"> ----- </font>

<font color="blue"> Hand SEVEN </font>

Big Blind is t200 (6 handed)

Button (t1058)
SB (t293)
BB (t2070)
UTG (t745)
Hero (t1400)
CO (t2434)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
Fold, Hero?

<font color="red"> ----- </font>

<font color="blue"> Hand EIGHT </font>

Big Blind is t300 (5 handed)

UTG (t1749)
MP (t995)
Button (t1356)
Hero (t1870)
BB (t2030)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero?

<font color="red"> ----- </font>

<font color="blue"> Hand NINE </font>

Big Blind is t200 (4 handed)

BB (t1530)
UTG (t2145)
Button (t2970)
Hero (t1355)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero?

<font color="red"> ----- </font>

<font color="blue"> Hand TEN </font>


Big Blind is t200 (4 handed)

Hero (t1195)
Button (t3300)
SB (t2045)
BB (t1460)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif.

[johnnybeef]

as i feel like this may be one of the areas that my game needs some help i will answer these publicly:


1:fold you are out of position and will have more than the short stack after the next round of blinds

2:this one depends on how much you have been pushing lately, as if you have been pushing a lot, it becomes likely that you will get called with any ace. if i was on the button though, id push this one and never look back.

3: instapush

4: push...see sklansky karlson

5: push...you need to make a move and jts is a better than average hand

6: depends on how much you have been pushing lately, but id prolly tend to lean towards folding. a3 off is a hand that can be to easily dominated and you are not yet in need of making a move (see PVS advice about having 1200 at level 2...and that applies to when you have 1000 to start.)

7: fold.

8: fold...that being said id instapush if the bb had a shorter stack than you

9: depends on how the bb got his stack, if he is tight, instapush...he has a big enough stack to fold all but the best hand

10: lean towards pushing but yet again, this one is table dependent...i.e. will the blinds be going up again soon?

[J-Lo]

hand 5 is the trickiest, because Big stack is almost gettin 2:1.

Pushing w/ A-rag from EP is often times frowned upon, because when called u WILL be dominated-- not that u did this, just a note. 123 SNG's is nothing, i just finished a break even slump of 220 SNG's where i had a drop of 15 buyins in the middle of it. Last night i played 60 SNG's and had a 20 buyin upswing. If u pushed most of the hands u posted, u will NOT be making a mistake. Folding your way into positions like hand 5 is much worse than pushing w/ 72o.

[Voltron87]

1. fold
2. push
3. push
4. close, probably push
5. push
6. push
7. push
8. push
9. push
10. push

these all matter on the type of players at the table, but generally i like my lines.

[Voltron87]

How can you not push 8? Easy easy.

[UMTerp]

My answers are the same as Voltron's and I think #7 is the closest of the pushes.

[applejuicekid]

I agree with all these except #4. How is this close? Easy push.

[Voltron87]

I've been pushing more and more of those on the more passive tables, because the difference between having 2000 chips and 3 people covered and having 1500 chips and puttering along ITM is huge. Sometimes the difference between squeezing ITM (no shame in that though) and being a power stack and profitting on the bubble.

[Phil Van Sexton]

I usually don't have the attention span to handle more than 1 hand per post, but this post was awesome. Charts, polls, wow...I have to respond.

I wish you had an "It depends" option. I don't mind pushing any of these, so I didn't vote fold for any. I did vote Something Else on 1, 2, and 10 (I think, dammit I can't keep this straight).

Basically, anytime you have a shortish stack or its folded to you in the SB, those were clear pushes.

The hands with a medium stack on button or UTG, it would depend on reads and how often I'd been stealing. These are pushable or foldable. In depends.

[microbet]

I should have spent more time and thought about the something else's. I didn't. I said push everything except hand number 1. Maybe one or two of them would change if my table image was already shot.

[Nottom]

1) Let the SB and big stacks battle this one out this hand. K8 isn't a hnad you want to get involved with in this spot.

2) This is is kind of close but I'm usually going to push. These 4-way evenish stack bubble situations are usually decided by who can pull the trigger on this type of hand.

3) Easy Push

4) Easier Push

5) JTs isn't a great hand, but you are about to hit the BB and need to make a move. JTs is way better than you will expect to get next hand. Push.

6) This one seems sort of close, but its hard to come up with calling ranges where its actually -EV to push which makes it a pretty clear decision.

7) I fold this one. Too many people left to act including the 2 stacks that can bust you. You stack is big enough that you don't need to gamble here.

8) Gotta push an A from the SB

9) Same with most Ks.

10) I think its close but you need to push. If the blinds are going up soon you definately need to push.

[Phil Van Sexton]

Folding #7 is a leak. 57% fold? Let's be serious here.

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
1. fold
2. push
3. push
4. close, probably push
5. push
6. push
7. push
8. push
9. push
10. push

these all matter on the type of players at the table, but generally i like my lines.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with every answer here in general. I don't think 4 is very close at any level. I think 6 and 7 are fairly close, however. It goes without saying that the answer to most of these is 'it depends.'

[Voltron87]

I will change my answer on several if the BB is a 2+2er who realizes how wide a range he can call with given his odds and reduction from the BB.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
It goes without saying that the answer to most of these is 'it depends.'

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually think that for all but maybe 3 or 4 it doesn't depend on anything because they are that clear.

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It goes without saying that the answer to most of these is 'it depends.'

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually think that for all but maybe 3 or 4 it doesn't depend on anything because they are that clear.

[/ QUOTE ]

You might be right. I would say that at least 1, 4, 6, 7, 9, and 10 all depend somewhat on your opponents, and certain tables could dictate a change in answer.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
How can you not push 8? Easy easy.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah you're right s+k says its a simple push....duh

[Nick M]

I agree with Voltron except possibly 10. That I think I might have to fold. I think it's too weak to stand UTG. If you push hand 10, than I think you push hand 1. And I don't do either.

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
If you push hand 10, than I think you push hand 1. And I don't do either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at the stacks of your opponents in the two hands you mentioned there. That's the main reason the situations aren't comparable.

[KingDan]

I push everything but 1.

[Phoenix1010]

Actually, looking at it again... number 6 is very player dependent. A3o is only 55% against a random hand, if BB is likely to call with all aces, pairs, and suited connectors, the chip EV is very marginal. In a lot of situations, it could be much better to fold this and steal from the current UTG player in the next hand. It depends a lot on how much FE you have on the button there, and also the tendencies of the two shortstacks.

[DasLeben]

I push all except for 1. I do agree that #7 and #10 are close, but probably still pushes against average opponents.

By the way, I had a finish distribution very close to yours. What got me back in the right direction was ramping up aggression 4-5 handed. Just don't settle for second.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]

Folding #7 is a leak. 57% fold? Let's be serious here.

[/ QUOTE ]

how? you are third in chips and you have two big stacks after you...your edge isnt big enough imo.

[DasLeben]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Folding #7 is a leak. 57% fold? Let's be serious here.

[/ QUOTE ]

how? you are third in chips and you have two big stacks after you...your edge isnt big enough imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just ran the numbers on this hand. Assuming everyone except for the SB has a decent calling range (66+, A9s+, ATo+), and the SB calls with any two, you're looking at an EV of -0.1%. Since those calling ranges aren't at all perfect, you might see +EV or -EV here. It's definitely very close.

[lastchance]

1, 5, 7, 10, are all somewhat questionable and worth debate, but most of them are still pushes.

The one thing I notice is your SB range. You're asking about hands any decent player would push 100% of the time without thinking much about it.

Folding nine (k7) is horribly weak-tight. Folding eight (A6) is awful, and an incredibly large leak, to anyone who voted for folding that hand. I do not see how you can win at SNGs folding eight. Same for 6. 3 and 4 are both really easy pushes. Folding 2, if you've been pushing a lot, is not so horrible a mistake, but certainly a push 95% of the time.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Folding #7 is a leak. 57% fold? Let's be serious here.

[/ QUOTE ]

how? you are third in chips and you have two big stacks after you...your edge isnt big enough imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just ran the numbers on this hand. Assuming everyone except for the SB has a decent calling range (66+, A9s+, ATo+), and the SB calls with any two, you're looking at an EV of -0.1%. Since those calling ranges aren't at all perfect, you might see +EV or -EV here. It's definitely very close.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is precisely what i figured it to be, and imo, is not big enough of an edge to even warrant debate.

[adanthar]

I fold #1 and #6. The JTs hand is *probably* a push, but debatable, and the A8o hand seems a push to me, but also debatable. The rest are not at all close, IMO.

[lastchance]

You fold A3 on the button with 5x BB?

[Nottom]

I briefly considered folding the A3o hand (#6).

I thought it might be pretty close but then I started playing with Eastbay's calculator and couldn't come up with any reasonable calling ranges for the blinds that made it -EV. You really have to open up the SBs calling range (&gt;50% of hands) to make this a bad push.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Folding #7 is a leak. 57% fold? Let's be serious here.

[/ QUOTE ]

how? you are third in chips and you have two big stacks after you...your edge isnt big enough imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just ran the numbers on this hand. Assuming everyone except for the SB has a decent calling range (66+, A9s+, ATo+), and the SB calls with any two, you're looking at an EV of -0.1%. Since those calling ranges aren't at all perfect, you might see +EV or -EV here. It's definitely very close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant a leak in my game.

Just kidding. Thanks for doing the math. Obviously very close. With blinds coming up in 2 hands, neutral ICM means push in my book.

[Pokerscott]

[ QUOTE ]

Folding #7 is a leak. 57% fold? Let's be serious here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree.

-A8o with 4 to act behind you is not great to start.
-2 of the stacks behind have you covered
-the small blind will call with a wide range of hands (especially if you push since they need the BB overlay)
-The small blind calling makes the BB more likely to call

You are basically making a low to negative EV play in my opinion and getting nothing but variance in return. Save your chips to effectively steal later on.

Pokerscott

EDIT sorry just read your response. I thought you meant it was a leak to fold...

[Nick M]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you push hand 10, than I think you push hand 1. And I don't do either.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Look at the stacks of your opponents in the two hands you mentioned there. That's the main reason the situations aren't comparable.


[/ QUOTE ]


yeah it's a good point...but I would also look at the stacks compared to the blinds in both too. Hand one you have a bigger stack, but the blinds are higher. In hand 10 it's the opposite. IMO I think this makes it closer than it seems.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Folding #7 is a leak. 57% fold? Let's be serious here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree.

-A8o with 4 to act behind you is not great to start.
-2 of the stacks behind have you covered
-the small blind will call with a wide range of hands (especially if you push since they need the BB overlay)
-The small blind calling makes the BB more likely to call

You are basically making a low to negative EV play in my opinion and getting nothing but variance in return. Save your chips to effectively steal later on.

Pokerscott

EDIT sorry just read your response. I thought you meant it was a leak to fold...

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't be sorry. I think it is a leak to fold, but pretty small.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
why?

[/ QUOTE ]

[Sponger15SB]

Thank you guys for all the input, I'm glad so many people responded.

Anyone like to say anything general about my stats though?

I'm gonna write down some more bubble plays and post them again over the weekend, spark some more good discussion. Hopefully I can get some hands which aren't Ax involved....

[microbet]

I think it would be interesting if you posted some possible pushes with crappy cards.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

Anyone like to say anything general about my stats though?


[/ QUOTE ]

They are meaningless. Seriously.

I see nothing about them that is significant in any way.

Yugoslav
Who knows you know better.....or do you? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]

I think it is a leak to fold, but pretty small.
[ QUOTE ]
why?

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

People seem to like to pass on borderline plays in order to wait for a better spot. The ICM doesn't understand that you probably aren't going to get a better spot than this.

You have 1 more hand before you pay the blinds. It's unlikely you'll get a hand to push UTG if you are willing to fold A8 from UTG+1. After that, you pay the blinds. Now you have fewer chips, and less FE.

Maybe I'm a pessimist, but I don't expect to get a better spot than this. I think its a leak to always expect things to get better. All IMO, of course.

[Seadood228]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone like to say anything general about my stats though?

[/ QUOTE ]

Err... they look like my last 150?

Looks like you may not be taking advantage of while in the SB at times, but that remains to be seen. It looks to me like you are on a cold streak which is affecting your aggression around the bubble, and possibly even 3 handed.

Hope things turn around.

[Apathy]

Hand #1 is fold, all the others are pushes, if you require further explanation holla.