mini step 2 hand

[schwza]

this is a hand my brother played. possibly at some point he'll sack up and start posting hands himself.

mini step 2, top 2 move on

pinkfloyd has been a little tight. he's passed up several opportunities to raise from the SB, but has pushed some (maybe half?).

thanks!
-josh

***** Hand History for Game 2031690555 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:12106794 Level:5 Blinds(100/200) - Wednesday, May 11, 02:52:17 EDT 2005
Table Mini Step 2 #1014207 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 4: hero ( $2645 )
Seat 3: pinkfloyd618 ( $2080 )
Seat 5: jogea ( $785 )
Seat 8: JSY_GARY ( $2490 )
Trny:12106794 Level:5
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to hero [ Th Td ]
jogea folds.
JSY_GARY folds.
pinkfloyd618 is all-In [1980]
hero ???

if hero folds, ICM (http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html) says that he'll have a 60% chance of winning a seat.

if he calls and loses, he'll have an 18.7% chance.

if he calls and wins, he'll have a 92.2% chance.

he should call when 92.2p + 18.7(1-p) > 60, where p is chance of winning.

75.5p > 41.3
p > 54.7

wow, so according to ICM you should call if villain flips AK face up? that's pretty counter-intuitive. somebody wanna check my math/reasoning?

[Domer]

Those calculations appear correct. If villain actually showed hero his AK, he would be in the enviable position of (mathematically speaking) being unable to make a wrong decision. Either way, he's good.

In the specific case where villain showed his AK, I would fold regardless of what ICM says since hero is in position to put pressure on the short stack in the coming hands.

If, however, your only info is that that villain has pushed "maybe half" of the time, then obviously its a call.

[Wes ManTooth]

Would he push with AK? If you think he has an ace this push seems like some Ax, A10-A7 range. Call.

[adanthar]

I would call a face up AK, yes. Your FE in these bubbles is tiny because most of these guys think K8o is a great calling hand, so you may as well take a 55% for the win.

However, notice how much of an easier fold this would be if there were eight people left and four were going? That's why the 2 table Steps are a much better bet.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I would call a face up AK, yes. Your FE in these bubbles is tiny because most of these guys think K8o is a great calling hand, so you may as well take a 55% for the win.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a pretty dubious argument. if they're calling with such a wide range, the play should be to sit back and let them bust each other (or move in when you might have a big edge if called), not to resign yourself to taking a tiny edge (in terms of ICM).

[swarm]

You have to finish in the top 2 to move on, lose and you freeroll step 2 again; ICM doesn't even take that into it's calculations.

So if you call and win then you make step 3 without even batting an eye...

This is an easy, easy call for me. You are more than likely way ahead of something like AorK with a mid kicker equal to or lower than 10 or a lower pocket pair.

[schwza]

ICM allows you to enter payouts for each spot. i put 1 in 1st and 2nd and 0 in 3rd.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
ICM allows you to enter payouts for each spot. i put 1 in 1st and 2nd and 0 in 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is going to lead to an interesting final result at Mini STEP 5 where the payout is top 5. Does dethgrind still visit us here at 2+2?

[schwza]

i dunno... i PM'ed him ~6 months ago saying it'd be cool if he expanded the website to allow for more entries but he never did. not that i'm complaining - it's still a great site.